Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
1.5pts Rodrygo to score anytime in Real Madrid vs Villarreal at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
1pt Lautaro Martinez to score anytime in Lazio vs Inter at 8/5 (bet365)
Already advised:
1.5pts Arsenal to win and BTTS vs Brighton at 19/10 (William Hill)
1pt Edson Alvarez to be carded in West Ham vs Wolves at 49/20 (Unibet)
0.5pt John McGinn to score anytime in Brentford vs Aston Villa at 11/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Philipp Lienhart & Timo Hübers both to score in Freiburg v Köln at 217/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Lazio vs Inter
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 4/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 8/11
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
LAUTARO MARTINEZ has netted 16 times 21 appearances for Inter this term, 14 of which coming in 16 Serie A appearances.
It means the Argentine leads the way in the Capocannoniere race, seven clear of Olivier Giroud (8) and twice as many as Romelu Lukaku (7) who is amongst the chasing pack.
The 8/5 about Martinez SCORING ANYTIME looks large, other firms have him as short as 21/20. Even if you based his price in this market on his poorest Serie A season (goals per 90 of 0.40), he should be closer to the 6/4 mark.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Viaplay Sports 2
- Home 2/7 | Draw 5/1 | Away 8/1
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Real Madrid find themselves second in La Liga, behind Girona, after drawing with Real Betis last time out, though they shouldn't have any issues with Villarreal this weekend.
The Yellow Submarine sit a lowly 13th in the Spanish top flight, and have allowed the third most xGA in the entire division (1.88 per game) - only bottom placed Almeria and second bottom Granada have fared worst.
A vulnerable and leaky backline is far from ideal when heading to the Bernabeu, meaning the hosts should get plenty of chances, so I'm looking at the goalscorer markets and seeing RODRYGO TO SCORE ANYTIME at odds against appeals greatly.
He has averaged 0.56 xG per 90 minutes this season, showing he consistently gets into good scoring chances, and he has found his finishing boots of late.
The Brazilian has netted seven times in his last seven matches for Madrid across domestic and European matches, and can keep his run going on Sunday.
Arsenal vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 1/2 | Draw 15/4 | Away 21/4
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Now if I told you we could back something at 19/10 that has landed in 15 of the last 27 Arsenal home league games you wouldn't believe me. But it's true.
ARSENAL WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE has hit in 56% of the Gunners' Premier League matches at the Emirates since the start of last season, which gives us implied odds of around 4/5.
That makes the 19/10 on offer scarcely believable, and is something I'd back down to around 6/4 given the strike rate and the circumstances heading into this clash, mainly that Brighton are the opposition.
The Seagulls head to north London having scored in all of their last 32 league matches. Yes, you read that right, THIRTY TWO. They are incredibly reliable in attack, and just so happen to be reliably vulnerable at the back, because they have conceded in all of their last 20 league games.
Arsenal are the better team heading into this match-up, had the luxury of rotating players in midweek and have had two extra days off for this game, while Brighton are already stretched thin, played on Thursday and fielded a strong side needing to win.
The underlying data is heavily in Arsenal's favour too, but the fact the Seagulls are so reliable in attack and Arsenal rarely keep clean sheets at home makes the home win coupled with BTTS an incredibly obvious play, and boosts the price from 1/2 to nearly 2/1.
Brentford vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 11/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 23/20
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
No player epitomises Aston Villa’s meteoric rise like JOHN MCGINN. The Villans skipper is thriving in a more advanced position on the left this term but remains as frenetic as ever.
His match winner against Arsenal was his sixth of the campaign. Domestically, he has already eclipsed his best ever top flight tally (4 Premier League goals) and is well on course to trump his largest ever haul of six goals which came in his maiden season in the Championship with Villa.
With a goals per 90 average of 0.27, his price TO SCORE ANYTIME cannot be scoffed at.
Both sides are riddled with injuries and Villa were in midweek action, dipping into the goalscorer market seems the best way into this clash.
West Ham vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/2 | Draw 15/4 | Away 21/4
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Mark O'Haire's nap comes from this game, backing both teams to score. I'm fully on board with that selection and it's boosted price, so will turn my attentions to the card markets for this clash, with Chris Cavanagh in charge, a man who has averaged 4.5 cards per game across his last 10 matches.
One trend that seems to be appearing when Wolves play is that central midfielders get carded, often.
The Old Gold have seen 11 opposing centre-mids get carded in their last 12 league games, probably due to their up-tempo style and the driving nature of their own midfielders when they have the ball.
So, backing a midfield enforcer who has been carded seven times in 13 league games at a price as big as 49/20 makes huge appeal.
EDSON ALVAREZ TO BE CARDED is the play, with the Mexican proving very cynical in midfield for the Hammers. He missed last week's game which resulted in a 5-0 thrashing at Fulham, and was excellent in midweek in the Europa League, so we can be very confident he starts here.
In total Alvarez has been booked in nine of 19 outings this season across all competitions, and is as short as 7/4 in places, which is what I would expect to see across the board for this match-up.
Freiburg vs Köln
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 4/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/3
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
Just two wins from 14 had left Köln battling the drop as we approach the winter break.
The thing that stands out to me about these two sides is their approach at set-pieces, both attacking and defending. They're in the category where I think they're both good when taking but struggle to stop at the other end.
A look at the numbers backs this up, which is a relief.
They both sit in the top six for expected goals (xG) created from set-pieces, while they are in the top five for expected goals against (xGA). After a goalscorer at 11/1 in Germany's top-flight recently, I'm fancying a huge-priced play here.
At an eye-watering best price of 217/1, I'm taking Freiburg's PHILIPP LIENHART and Köln's TIMO HÜBERS BOTH TO SCORE.
Lienhart's positions at corners interests me. The centre-back either takes the front post run or a position at the edge of the six-yard box.
The above screenshot of his goal against Augsburg highlights this. Contact on the ball directed towards goal creates a significantly good chance of scoring, while he's also in the right spot should anything fall in front of the goalkeeper.
His 2.4 aerial duels won per game is the third-highest in this Freiburg side, while he sees an average of a shot every other game.
On the Köln side of things, Hübers is a dominant presence in the air and has returned 12 shots from his 14 league outings this season.
He netted three goals last season. We're likely to see him arrive later to the ball than we would from Lienhart, looking to use the momentum to direct the ball into the net.
It's a massive play, of course, but one that grabs my interest given the match-up of these two sides. It's televised and the Premier League offering isn't that appealing. Get this on instead.
Odds correct at 1445 GMT (15/12/23)
Odds correct 1700 GMT (15/12/23)
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