Football betting tips: Tuesday best bets
1pt e.w. Mohamed Simakan to score first in Bremen v RB Leipzig at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
1.5pts Niclas Füllkrug 1+ assists in Dortmund v Mainz at 10/3 (Paddy Power)
Dortmund vs Mainz
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 1/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 19/4
A solid Champions League campaign in which they finished top of Group F - setting up a meeting with Dutch outfit PSV - has saved Dortmund from a rather underwhelming first half of the season.
This fixture will inevitably bring back the horror flashbacks of the final day of the 22/23 season. A win would have been enough for them to lift the Meisterschale again - it finished in a 2-2 draw.
Mainz's one win from 15 this season leaves them 17th. It would be a straightforward win for most teams, there's just something about Dortmund that is keeping me miles away from the result market.
Instead, I'm going to focus on NICLAS FÜLLKRUG, and rather than go for him to score, the 10/3 for 1+ ASSISTS is interesting.
The 30-year-old has as many assists as he does goals in the league this season, with five sitting on both tallies at this stage.
In fact, only Julian Brandt can boast more assists in this Dortmund squad, with Füllkrug's 1.2 key passes per game average bettered by Brandt and Marco Reus.
Three of those assists have come in his last four league games, while he also grabbed the helper from Karim Adeyemi as Dortmund secured a vital point against PSG in the Champions League.
With a best price of 6/5 available on a goal, his assist odds provide far bigger appeal.
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 4/1 | Draw 7/2 | Away 4/7
Leipzig remain in title contention, although a seven-point gap to Leverkusen at the top is a problem as we head into the winter break.
A trip to Bremen won't concern them though despite their semi-decent home record. Four wins from eight still leaves them in the bottom-half of the home standings.
Losses to Bayern, Hoffenheim and Leverkusen have come in front of their own supporters and the trend of losing to the top sides is likely to continue here.
Instead of taking the short price on an away win, I fancy an each-way play on the 40/1 for MOHAMED SIMAKAN TO SCORE FIRST.
The centre-back scored when converting a close range rebound in their last game, but it's the high number of efforts he's seeing that has grabbed my attention.
Across his last four, Simakan has seen a total of eight shots. It's not a massive surprise when Leipzig boast the third-highest amount of goals scored from set-piece situations in the Bundesliga.
Bremen aren't the most vulnerable in these scenarios but they have conceded on multiple occasions already. At the prices available, and considering his recent form, the value play is with Simakan.
Odds correct 1430 GMT (18/12/23)
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