Everton v Liverpool tips: Premier League preview and best bets
The Merseyside derby takes centre stage on Wednesday, with the two sides in contrasting form as they meet. Jake Osgathorpe previews the clash, providing best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 21/20 (BetVictor)
1.5pts Liverpool to win with -1 goal handicap at 11/10 (Sky Bet, SpreadEx)
We have a big game on our hands in Wednesday's late slot, with Merseyside rivals Everton and Liverpool going head-to-head, and it is the first meeting between the pair since former Liverpool manager Rafael Benitez was appointed Everton manager.
The two are in contrasting form as they meet at Goodison Park, with the Toffees winless in seven league games following a 1-0 defeat to Brentford at the weekend, and the Reds fresh off three straight wins in which they have scored 10 times.
Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
Everton 7/1 | Draw 4/1 | Liverpool 4/11
The Everton faithful were perhaps waiting for a bad run of form so they could run Benitez out of the club, but the downturn that their expected goals (xG) process has taken since their opening six games of the season has been remarkable.
They have major issues at both ends of the pitch.
After averaging a top-six level 1.72 xGF per game over their first six games, the Toffees have averaged just 1.17 xGF per game across their following seven, and while injuries have had a part to play in forward areas, the same can't be said defensively, where they've mostly had a full complement.
Their xGA per game has jumped by over 0.90 per game from their first six games to their last seven - an astonishing increase.
The level of opponent they have faced has something to do with that spike, but the Toffees host another of the league's best sides on Wednesday, and if their last seven is anything to go by, it could be a long evening for Benitez.
Liverpool will be licking their lips at the thought of facing this Everton team, who, as we have discussed, are allowing an awful lot of chances on a regular basis.
The Reds boast the best attacking process in the league, averaging a huge 2.73 xGF per game this season, with Klopp's side also scoring two or more goals in 19 of their 20 games in all competitions.
They should create a lot of chances at Goodison Park, and if they maintain the same level, should win this game comfortably, so backing LIVERPOOL TO WIN WITH -1 HANDICAP appeals.
For this bet to win, we need the visitors to win by two or more goals, a one-goal win would see this bet lose.
Fortunately for us, all eight of their league wins this season have seen this bet win, and across all competitions this bet has landed in 13 of the Reds 15 wins.
Now, you may think that is all because of their attacking firepower, but their defence deserves credit too, as all eight of their league wins have come with a clean sheet.
Across their 15 wins in all competitions, Liverpool have won 12 of those to nil. Adding to that tally looks a real possibility here given Everton's attacking issues.
While a Liverpool win to nil would seem the obvious play, I think there is enough value in just backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' at odds-against.
This gives us a bit of extra security should Everton keep Liverpool out, and while that seems incredibly unlikely, it is worth noting that three of the last four Merseyside derby's at Goodison Park have finished 0-0.
All in all, I expect a comfortable Liverpool win to nil, but by backing these two bets in this way we are covering ourselves nicely if Everton do decide to turn up.
Everton v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 21/20 (BetVictor)
- 1.5pts Liverpool to win with -1 goal handicap at 11/10 (Sky Bet, SpreadEx)
Score prediction: Everton 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (30/11/21)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
