Reece James (left) and Anthony Gordon could clash again on Saturday
Reece James (left) and Anthony Gordon could clash again on Saturday

Everton v Chelsea tips: Premier League best bets and preview

Everton get their season under way by welcoming Chelsea on Saturday evening, Jake Osgathorpe previews the game and selects his best bet.

Football betting tips: Premier League

2pts Under 2.5 Goals at evens (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Betting guide image - USE THIS ONE (but delete caption)

Everton just survived relegation last season, relying upon their home form at Goodison Park which became a very difficult place for opponents to visit.

The Toffees will be needing all the help they can get from their home field advantage here, with major absentees meaning they will be undermanned for the visit of Chelsea.

Thomas Tuchel's side also have question marks around them heading into the new season, and were edged out 1-0 in this fixture only three months ago.

Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday

TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Everton 19/4 | Draw 14/5 | Chelsea 3/5

Sky Bet latest sign up offer ->

It is set to be a fascinating game, but I fully expect this meeting to follow the same pattern as the last, meaning UNDER 2.5 GOALS is just too big of a price at even money.

Everton played in a deep-lying block at the back end of last season, with a high energy, unorganised press meaning their games saw few chances at either end of the pitch.

Their opponents couldn't create due to the stubborn nature of their set-up and the 'in-your-face' approach that was especially evident at home, while the Toffees themselves rarely threatened as progressing the ball from such a deep starting point proved problematic.

All of that added up to a very paltry underlying process when playing at home, with Everton averaging 1.17 xGF and 1.14 xGA per home game under Lampard.

Everton at home under lamps

Those figures mean Everton ranked as the eighth best defensive team at home after his appointment, but the third worst attacking home team, with that overall average of 2.31 xG per home game ranking second worst.

We can expect the same here given the absence of forward players, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Andros Townsend (both injured) and Solomon Rondon (suspended) and the sale of Richarlison.

Effectively, Lampard's hand has been forced. He has to play defence first as he has few forward options!


Chelsea's attacking figures don't exactly bowl me over to change my mind, averaging 1.72 xGF per away game last season, closer to the levels hit by Manchester United (1.42) than Liverpool (2.25).

Changes up top are interesting, with Raheem Sterling's arrival likely to allow Tuchel to play more direct and with a quicker speed than with Romelu Lukaku in the team, but this Chelsea team could struggle to break down a deep-lying block.

The question marks around the Blues attack only strengthens my under 2.5 goals fancy, as does the fact that six of Everton's nine home games under Lampard last season saw this bet land.

Interestingly, games against Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea featured in those six that went under the required line, so I am more than happy to chance it again here with an even money price.

Everton v Chelsea score prediction and best bets

  • 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at evens (bet365)

Score prediction: Everton 0-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct 1440 BST (04/08/22)

Premier League Score Predictor
ALSO READ: Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League Score Predictor

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at and

Like what you've read?


Sporting Life
Join for free!
Access to exclusive features all for FREE - No monthly subscription fee
Race Replays
My stable horse tracker
giftOffers and prize draws
newsExclusive content