Premier League betting tips: Everton v Burnley best bets and preview
Everton are still in the battle for the top-four and welcome Burnley on Saturday. Tom Carnduff is backing an early first goal.
Football betting tips: Everton v Burnley
1pt Time of first goal to be 10:00-19:59 at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Time of first goal to be 20:00-29:59 at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Despite defeat to Chelsea in their last game, Everton remain in the hunt for a European spot while Burnley's focus is on survival. 16 points separate the two sides at this stage of the season and, even with Everton's fairly poor record at home, Burnley's struggles on the road across the whole course of the season means the Toffees will be targeting this one for victory.
Even if results haven't been coming as they would have hoped at Goodison Park, Carlo Ancelotti's side have still been scoring with 18 goals from 13 home games. Burnley on the other hand, have just eight on their record in the away fixtures.
Quick starts have been a feature of Burnley's recent away games though and we could see an early strike in this contest. It makes the timed first goal markets an interesting play in a game where the Toffees should have enough to secure all three points.
Back an early goal
With the market finally catching up on Richarlison's good form, and 2/1 available across the board on the Everton striker grabbing a goal here, the best value can be found in the timed first goal markets, with a goal fancied before the half-hour mark.
Burnley have scored the opening goal in nine Premier League games this season, with the average time of those goals being the 28th minute. For Everton, of their 15 go-ahead goals, the average stands in the 25th minute. We find a fairly similar pattern when we look at the goals conceded numbers.
The first goal against Burnley has averaged in the 24th minute, while Everton see their figure as the 39th minute. In the Clarets' away games, they have conceded the first goal, on average, in the 13th minute, with the Toffees seeing their first home goals averaging in the 20th minute.
While recent weeks have seen goals for and against these two teams in the opening ten minutes of the contest, there is value in holding out for the first goal coming in the period after this, with Sky Bet offering 9/2 on the TIME OF THE FIRST GOAL BEING BETWEEN 10:00 AND 19:59.
Richarlison's recent winner against Southampton came in the 9th minute, just before this range, while there have been goals in the 22nd minute too. Those goals fell outside of this range but I'm willing to meet in the middle for the first selection, with the TIME OF THE FIRST GOAL BEING BETWEEN 20:00 AND 29:59 at 11/2 covering any goals coming just after.
That would have landed in Everton's home draw with Leicester, while the same could be said for the 2-1 win over Arsenal and the 1-0 victory over Chelsea. Backing both of those times creates a 20-minute period for the first goal which covers both teams averages so far this season.
Everton v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Time of first goal to be 10:00-19:59 at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Time of first goal to be 20:00-29:59 at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (11/03/21)
Opta facts
- Everton have won five of their six Premier League home games against Burnley (83%) – among teams they’ve faced at least five times at Goodison Park in the competition, they’ve only got a higher home win rate against Fulham (93% - 14/15).
- Burnley won 1-0 at Liverpool in January – they’ve never won away league games against both Everton and Liverpool in the same season before.
- Six of Burnley’s 20 Premier League goals this season have come in the opening 15 minutes of games, with no side netting a higher ratio in this time (30%). However, the Clarets have also conceded a league high 10 times in the opening 15 minutes this season.
- No team has failed to score in more different Premier League away games than Burnley this season (8), with only Sheffield United (6) netting fewer goals on the road than the Clarets (8). Burnley have won their last three away league games in which they’ve found the net.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s 13 Premier League goals this season have been worth 14 points to Everton, more valuable than any other player in the competition so far this term. Indeed, it’s also the most points won by an Everton player in a single campaign in the competition.
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
