Everton look to continue their surge towards safety with a Super Sunday home game against Brentford. Liam Kelly provides a best bet for the match-up.
Everton's goalless draw with already-relegated Watford could be seen as disappointing, a missed opportunity to gain more points in their fight for survival.
If analysing that stalemate (xG: WAT 0.43 - 0.98 EVE) does tell you anything, however, it's that Frank Lampard has settled on the pragmatic approach for the nervy relegation run-in.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
UNDER 2.5 GOALS has landed in five of the games mentioned, and it's a selection I'm willing to stick with for the match-up with Brentford here at a pick'em price.
Brentford can play with an element of freedom following an outstanding first season in the Premier League, but mucking it up is what Everton do best at present.
Thomas Frank's men do find it difficult to translate their form as hosts to the road, too, averaging 1.22 xGF per game away from home.
When factoring in the location, Everton's chances in keeping the Bees from buzzing increases further.
Lampard's side have kept three clean sheets and conceded just twice in their last five matches at Goodison Park, allowing less than 1.0 xG in four of the five. They've only scored four times in reply, though.
Another bet that looks intriguing if this pans out in the manner I expect is JORDAN PICKFORD TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
His timewasting exploits have made headlines lately, so if Everton hold a slight lead in a close-knit affair, Pickford could easily be punished.
It would be folly to rule out the goalkeeper making a rash decision, too, making the 14/1 on offer of small interest.
Everton v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Jordan Pickford to be shown a card at 14/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (13/05/22)
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
