Everton look to continue their surge towards safety with a Super Sunday home game against Brentford. Liam Kelly provides a best bet for the match-up.
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
0.5pts Jordan Pickford to be shown a card at 14/1 (bet365)
Everton's goalless draw with already-relegated Watford could be seen as disappointing, a missed opportunity to gain more points in their fight for survival.
If analysing that stalemate (xG: WAT 0.43 - 0.98 EVE) does tell you anything, however, it's that Frank Lampard has settled on the pragmatic approach for the nervy relegation run-in.
To be fair, it is a scheme that has worked for the Toffees recently.
Everton have collected 11 points from a possible 18 in their last six Premier League matches, putting them within touching distance of safety with three games remaining after looking in deep trouble just weeks ago.
Lampard's side averaged 1.05 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.19 expected goals against per game across those fixtures, which includes meetings with Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS has landed in five of the games mentioned, and it's a selection I'm willing to stick with for the match-up with Brentford here at a pick'em price.
Brentford can play with an element of freedom following an outstanding first season in the Premier League, but mucking it up is what Everton do best at present.
Thomas Frank's men do find it difficult to translate their form as hosts to the road, too, averaging 1.22 xGF per game away from home.
When factoring in the location, Everton's chances in keeping the Bees from buzzing increases further.
Lampard's side have kept three clean sheets and conceded just twice in their last five matches at Goodison Park, allowing less than 1.0 xG in four of the five. They've only scored four times in reply, though.
Another bet that looks intriguing if this pans out in the manner I expect is JORDAN PICKFORD TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
His timewasting exploits have made headlines lately, so if Everton hold a slight lead in a close-knit affair, Pickford could easily be punished.
It would be folly to rule out the goalkeeper making a rash decision, too, making the 14/1 on offer of small interest.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (13/05/22)
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