Football betting tips: Europa League
1.5pts Bodo/Glimt to win in 90 mins at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Bodo/Glimt to qualify at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 9/1
- Bodo/Glimt to win
- Kasper Hogh 1+ shots on target
- Rodrigo Bentancur to commit 2+ fouls
- Brennan Johnson to win 1+ foul
*All in 90 mins
Tottenham are 90 minutes away from a European final. Yes, the team currently 16th in the Premier League.
Should they make it, Ange 'I always win a trophy in my second season, mate' Postecoglou would be one win away from making a lot of people and doubters look stupid.
And, Spurs would be one win away from silverware, finally adding something to their dusty trophy cabinet. Also, and perhaps more importantly in this day and age, they are just 180 (or 240) minutes away from qualifying for the Champions League.
All they have to do get to the showpiece do is go to Norway, take on a team called Bodo/Glimt, and avoid defeat by two goals. Easy right?
Wrong.
Write off Bodo/Glimt at your peril. The Norwegian side, while comfortably out-played in the first leg, scored a late goal to keep themselves in the tie and give them hope ahead of the second leg in their comfort zone.
That being the arctic circle, on a plastic pitch. This tie is not over.
What are the best bets?
At the prices on offer, we simply have to back hosts BODO/GLIMT TO WIN the second leg.
We are getting 7/4 about an excellent home team who need to win, against a poor travelling team who can afford to lose and go through.
The Norwegian side have won six of their seven home games in the Europa League this season, scoring the most home goals in the competition.
They have already seen off good sides at the Aspmyra Stadion, beating Porto (3-2), Besiktas (2-1), FC Twente (3-2), Olympiakos (3-0) and Lazio (2-0), so there's no reason they can't beat this fragile Spurs team.
Across their home Europa League matches, their underlying process has been excellent, averaging 2.34 xGF and 1.35 xGA per game.
More of the same on Thursday would see them in with a great chance of winning on the night. The pitch could be a huge advantage too, playing on astro turf.
That really has caught Europe's top sides out, and we only have to look closer to home to see how much Spurs struggled when playing on a plastic pitch this season.
Think back to the FA Cup third round, when they travelled to National League Tamworth who play on astro, and they drew 0-0 and needed extra time to get past the fifth-tier side.
Finally, Bodo/Glimt are back to a full complement having missed three key players for the first leg through suspension, so there really is a lot to like about the underdogs.
That's before we factor in that Spurs have won just six of their last 23 away matches in all competitions, losing 14. They aren't great travellers.
Given that I like Bodo to win on the night, and given this is Spurs we are talking about, I simply have to back BODO/GLIMT TO QUALIFY too at 8/1.
If Bodo get in front on the night, we could see Spurs crumble in an uncomfortable atmosphere, under huge pressure.
The Norwegian's would have to win by two clear goals to force extra time or three goals to win it, but I certainly think that's possible.
Their last two home UEL games have seen them win 3-0 and 2-0, the latter against a good Serie A team Lazio, where they won the xG battle 3.02-0.38, being absolutely dominant.
We can get 9/2 about Bodo -1 handicap, but given we are already backing them to win the game, I'll take smaller stakes and swing bigger, backing them to qualify.
If they get it to extra time or penalties, you have to fancy the hosts given the home field advantage and the fact that they came through a penalty shoot-out in Rome in the last round.
Team news
Tottenham are set to be without James Maddison for the rest of the season, with the Englishman joining Radu Dragusin and Lucas Bergvall on the sidelines.
Spurs could see Dominic Solanke and Son Heung-min involved in some capacity on Thursday, but if neither are fit enough to start, then Richarlison and Brennan Johnson should lead the line alongside either Mathys Tel or Wilson Odobert.
Dejan Kulusevski should come in for Maddison, and will be in midfield alongside Rodrigo Bentancur and either Yves Bissouma or Pape Matar Sarr.
At the back, Postecoglou is expected to field his favoured back four of Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Destiny Udogie.
As for Bodo/Glimt, Daniel Bassi is likely out but all of Hakon Evjen, Andreas Helmersen and captain Patrick Berg are all back after suspension.
Berg and Evjen should come straight into the XI.
Predicted line-ups
Bodo/Glimt: Haikin; Sjovold, Nielsen, Gundersen, Bjork; Evjen, Berg, Saltnes; Maatta, Hogh, Blomberg
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie; Sarr, Bentancur, Kulusevski; Johnson, Solanke, Tel
Match facts
- In the history of the UEFA Europa League since its rebrand ahead of the 2009-10 season, there have been 92 instances of a side winning the first leg of a knockout match on home soil by a 2+ goal margin, of which only nine have failed to progress in the overall tie. All eight prior semi-finalists to achieve the feat have progressed to the final.
- Across their major European history, Bodø/Glimt have lost all four of their matches against English opposition, including their only one on home soil vs Arsenal in October 2022 (0-1). Each of the other three defeats have seen the Norwegian side concede exactly three goals.
- With their 3-1 first leg victory, Tottenham made it five wins out of five against Norwegian opposition in major European competition. They’ve never faced sides from a specific country more often whilst keeping a 100% win-rate in the process.
- Bodø/Glimt have lost seven of their last 12 knockout matches in European competition (W3 D2), although all three victories during that time for the Norwegian side have come on home soil, including a 2-0 victory over Lazio at the quarter final stage.
- Tottenham won their last away UEFA Europa League game 1-0 at Eintracht Frankfurt, but haven’t won back-to-back away matches in major European competition since November 2013 (3 in the Europa League), and last did so in knockout stages in March 2008 (2 in the UEFA Cup).
- Including qualifiers, Bodø/Glimt have won nine of their last ten home European outings (L1), scoring 2+ goals in all but one of those matches – a 2-1 defeat to Qarabag during this season’s UEFA Europa League group stage.
- Tottenham recorded their eighth win in the UEFA Europa League this season in the first leg; they’ve never won nine matches in the same campaign across major European competition before.
- No side in the UEFA Europa League this season has netted more goals on home soil than Bodø/Glimt (19). Since the 2009-10 campaign in this competition, only Bayer Leverkusen have struck more home goals in a single season than the Norwegian outfit (21 in 2023-24).
- Kasper Høgh has netted seven goals in the UEFA Europa League for Bodø/Glimt this season, the joint-most of any player, alongside Olympiakos’ Ayoub El Kaabi and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes. His 50% shot conversion rate is the joint-highest of any player to score 3+ goals this season, whilst across the competition’s history, only James Tavernier in 2021-22 has netted as many goals in a campaign whilst holding a higher conversion rate (7 goals – 53.8%).
- Dominic Solanke has recorded eight goal contributions in the UEFA Europa League this season (4 goals, 4 assists), the most by a Spurs player in major European competition since Carlos Vinícius during the 2020-21campaign in this competition (9 – 6 goals, 3 assists).
Odds correct at 0915 BST (07/05/25)
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