Football betting tips: Europa League
1.5pts Athletic Club to win at 21/20 (William Hill)
BuildABet @ 15/2
- Athletic Club to win
- Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target
- Nico Williams to win 2+ fouls
This Manchester United have reached a European semi-final. I can't quite believe I'm writing that.
The team 14th in the Premier League who have lost 15 of 34 league outings and scored just 39 goals, are three games away from a trophy and Champions League football.
It would be remarkable.
The last round saw them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, only to snatch victory back again, scoring two extremely late goals in added time of extra time to turn things around and progress past Lyon.
It was a brilliant, breath-taking comeback, but it once again underlined how vulnerable, fragile and unreliable the Red Devils are.
Athletic Club are the polar opposite. They are extremely reliable, and while this competition is effectively United's season, it is also massive for the Spanish outfit.
In their rich history, the Basque side have never won a European trophy, and this season presents them with an unbelievable opportunity, with the final to be held in their own stadium at San Mames.
So, there is an awful lot on the line, meaning we should be in for two tense legs of football.
What are the best bets?
While the games may be tense, there is quite clearly one side that is better than the other.
I am of course talking about Athletic Club, the side currently fourth in La Liga, the side who have lost just seven times across 45 league and Europa League outings.
Four of those losses have come against Spain's big three, highlighting just how tough they are to beat.
That is especially the case at San Mames. Across the league and UEL, Bilbao have lost just once at home this season in 23 outings, winning 16.
In Europe they have won six from six, and given what's at stake for them and their fans, we should witness and even more raucous atmosphere than usual.
That is the main reason I'm very keen to back ATHLETIC CLUB TO WIN the first leg at odds against prices.
Led by a quality coach Ernesto Valverde, their underlying process at home this season has been fantastic. Across their home league and Europa League matches, they have averaged 1.86 xGF and 0.91 xGA per game.
While Manchester United have saved their best performances for this competition, they are yet to face a side anywhere near Athletic's level.
Their record away from home since Ruben Amorim took charge reads W5-D7-L6, and in that time they've posted a negative process, which tells us that on average they get out-created.
That's not a recipe for success, and given how tough United have found it to create chances and score goals of late, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them fail to score on Thursday against such a good defensive side.
Old Trafford, while it has been the Theatre of Nightmares for United this season, does at least have some of it's magic left - like what we witnessed against Lyon - so Athletic Club will be keen to take a lead to Manchester.
Team news
Manchester United remain without Amad Diallo, Toby Collyer, Matthijs de Ligt, Altay Bayindir, Ayden Heaven, Diogo Dalot, Joshua Zirkzee and Lisandro Martinez.
Given the absentees, Amorim could be set to again name Luke Shaw as part of a back three alongside Leny Yoro and Harry Maguire.
The Portuguese manager has some decisions to make in midfield, with Manuel Ugarte likely to start but his partner could be either Kobbie Mainoo or Casemiro.
Bruno Fernandes should support Rasmus Hojlund, alongside Alejandro Garnacho in attack.
Athletic Club only have one major injury doubt, with Oihan Sancet expected to be out here in the only change for the hosts.
Predicted line-ups
Athletic Club: Simon; Gorosabel, Vivian, Alvarez, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; I. Williams, Berenguer, N. Williams; Guruzeta
Manchester United: Onana; Yoro, Maguire, Shaw; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund
Odds correct at 0940 BST (30/04/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
