Football betting tips: Europa League final
1.5pts Manuel Ugarte to be carded at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Brennan Johnson to be carded at 13/2 (bet365)
1pt Micky van de Ven to commit 2+ fouls at 4/1 (Betfair)
0.5pt Ugarte and Johnson to be carded at 20/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 4/1 (bet365)
1pt Fernandes to score anytime at 13/5 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
As Europa League finals go, this is tough to dissect, so the referee appointment is probably the best place to start. Felix Zwayer has the whistle and he doesn’t mind flashing the cards, averaging 4.7 per game in European competitions this season.
In the Champions League knockout stages he dished out 20 cards (18 yellows and two reds) in his last three games and in the Europa League, he brandished 31 across his last four.
Manchester United’s MANUEL UGARTE looks the most likely TO BE CARDED.
He's collected 21 in 64 appearances for club and country this term, with 13 coming in 30 Premier League and Europa League starts. That cards per 90 average of 0.48 makes quotes of 2/1 too big.
The 13/2 about BRENNAN JOHNSON TO BE CARDED is another standout price.
He has seven cards domestically and his two in this competition have come in his last three appearances. Again based on his cards per 90 average (0.22) his price to be booked is value but Johnson’s direct opponent’s foul-drawing capabilities sweetens the deal.
Patrick Dorgu should be at left-back for United. He’s committed 2.5 fouls per game in the Europa League, setting up an interesting battle on the flank.
Combining Ugarte and Johnson in a CARD DOUBLE is also worth a punt.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Manchester United
Tom Carnduff
The advantage of two Premier League clubs battling it out in this contest is that we have recent meetings to look back on.
Spurs won 1-0 when hosting United in mid-February, with the visitors returning 32 successful tackles and Tottenham making 13 fouls.
One of those contributing to the latter statistic was centre-back MICKY VAN DE VEN, who is 4/1 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS in Bilbao.
His campaign has been disrupted by injury but Ange Postecoglou has said he is fit and available so he should start alongside Cristian Romero.
Van de Ven has made at least one foul in eight of 11 league starts, with two coming both at Chelsea and at home to Brentford.
This was also a winning selection in the home first leg of Spurs' semi-final against Bodo/Glimt. He also committed one in the away leg.
There's always a danger a first foul results in a card and Van de Ven becomes more cautious. However, at the price, it's well worth backing.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Manchester United
Joe Townsend
BRUNO FERNANDES has been Manchester United's shining light this season. In the Europa League, he's effectively been their saviour.
The United captain has provided a goal involvement in all of his team's last five UEL matches, scoring five and assisting three in that run of games.
Across all 13 fixtures he has scored seven and assisted four goals with his expected goals involvement (xGI) total of 11.58 evidence that this is no overperformance - it's also a figure helped by the fact he is United's penalty taker.
The price isn't there to back him to SCORE OR ASSIST with no firm going bigger than 13/10. Taking him at separate 13/5 and 4/1 quotes TO SCORE ANYTIME and provide 1+ ASSISTS respectively is advised instead.
- CLICK HERE to back Fernandes to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Fernandes 1+ assists with Sky Bet
In terms of the match itself, it feels as close to a coin flip as you could get. I don't trust either side to keep a clean sheet, or hold on to a lead, so a score draw seems the most likely outcome with it no surprise that 1-1 is by far and away the shortest-priced correct score at a general 5/1.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Manchester United
Odds correct at 1130 BST (20/05/25)
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