Euro 2020 betting tips: Spain v Poland best bets and preview
Liam Kelly previews Spain's hosting of Poland in Seville, forecasting a comfortable victory for Luis Enrique's side.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Spain v Poland
2pts Spain to win with -1 goal handicap at 21/20 (BetVictor)
Two teams who will be disappointed with their opening result face off in Seville.
Spain drew 0-0 with Sweden on Monday night after Poland were surprisingly beaten 2-1 by Slovakia, giving Group E a far more open feel than anticipated pre-tournament.
Poland's result in particular could see the neutral benefit here, with Paulo Sousa's side likely in need of victory to give themselves a chance of advancing to the round of 16.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Estadio La Cartuja - Seville, Spain
Spain 1/3 | Draw 19/5 | Poland 17/2
That will undoubtedly suit Spain, who should have a bit more space to work with as a result. Sweden sat in a low block against Luis Enrique's side, but it wasn't the same type of frustrating performance we see from Spain when they fail to score.
In addition to their 85% possession, Spain created plenty of scoring opportunities, as wasteful finishing letting them down after recording an impressive 2.89 expected goals for (xGF).
🇪🇸🤝🇸🇪 For all their possession, Spain just couldn't make the most of the chances they did create against a dogged Sweden side.#SWE #SPA #SPASWE #EURO2020
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 14, 2021
Their young superstar Pedri nailed it in his post-match comments, stating that his team "created many chances", and will "do well" if they continue in the same manner.
Simple, but true, and you won't see me disagreeing with Spain's standout performer in the opening game. A similar display should see the home side excel in a match-up against an inferior defence to Sweden's.
I'm happy to take a risk in giving Poland a head start in this game, tipping up SPAIN TO WIN WITH A -1 GOAL HANDICAP.
Poland might be buoyed by the fact that Spain conceded a couple of solid chances in their game with Sweden, especially with Robert Lewandowski as their chief threat.
However, they failed to get him involved in a dissatisfying loss to Slovakia, even before Poland were reduced to 10 men. Grzegorz Krychowiak will be a huge miss through suspension, often the protector of a shaky backline.
Slovakia may have only generated 0.50 xG in that win, but they played a vast majority of that fixture with the lead, slightly skewing their underlying numbers.
Poland are far more likely to crack under the pressure Spain exert. If Spain take the lead, the goals could flow.
Spain v Poland best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Spain to win with -1 goal handicap at 21/20 (Bet Victor)
Score prediction: Spain 3-1 Poland (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1730 BST (16/06/21)
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