Euro 2020 betting tips: Best bets and preview for each group
With Euro 2020 rapidly approaching, Jake Pearson has taken a look at each individual group and has picked out a best bet for each.
Football betting tips: Euro 2020 Group betting
1pt Wales to finish bottom of Group A at 6/4 (Betway)
2pts Belgium to win Group B at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Ukraine to win Group C at 21/4 (Unibet)
1pt Scotland to finish bottom of Group D at 11/8 (Betway)
1.5pts Slovakia to finish bottom of Group E at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt France to win Group F at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Group A
Group A really is a funny little group, with each of the four nations in it likely to be relatively pleased with the draw. Italy are obviously the favourites, and anything other than Roberto Mancini’s side topping the group would be a huge shock, but the remaining three teams do seem to be of a similar-ish standard.
Group A winner (via Sky Bet)
- Italy - 8/15
- Switzerland - 9/2
- Turkey - 5/1
- Wales - 8/1
Odds correct at 0800 BST (05/06/2021)
Due to the “best third-placed teams” scenario, all four teams in Group A are actually odds-on to qualify, thanks to the ever-generous nature of bookmakers. That cannot happen of course, and someone has to finish bottom, and that someone looks likely to be Wales.
Switzerland topped a relatively tricky qualifying group and arrive at this tournament in good form, as do Turkey, who have been a revelation over the last twelve months or so, posting some impressive results, notably their recent 4-2 demolition of the Netherlands.
Wales, on the other hand, arrive at this tournament in a bit of disarray, with no real manager (no disrespect to Robert Page) and without the solidarity that saw them enjoy such a good run in this competition in 2016.
Most firms have WALES TO FINISH BOTTOM OF GROUP A priced up at around the 11/10 or 6/5 mark, so a standout price of 6/4 is worth backing.
Group B
Belgium are the third favourites to become European Champions for the first time in their history at this summer’s tournament, and with the plethora of talent at the disposal of Roberto Martinez, it is easy to see why they are so fancied in the betting.
What is not too clear, is why they are only a shade of odds-on to win their group.
Group B winner (via Sky Bet)
- Belgium - 8/11
- Denmark - 2/1
- Russia - 5/1
- Finland - 18/1
Odds correct at 0800 BST (05/06/2021)
Aside from Belgium, Group B comprises of Denmark, Russia and Finland, and it is difficult to see exactly where the threat would come from as far as Belgium not topping the group is concerned.
Denmark are the obvious dangers, but they finished five points adrift of the Belgians in the Nations League, while Russia finished six points behind Martinez’ men in qualifying for this tournament.
This is Finland’s first appearance at a major tournament, and for all Teemu Pukki is a goalscoring machine, it is difficult to see them getting anything in this group.
There is an argument that finishing runner-up could result in an easier draw – the winners would play the best third-place team from either Group A/D/E/F in the first knock-out round, but would then play either the winners of Group A (potentially Italy), or the runners-up of Group C (potentially Ukraine, Austria or Netherlands), while the runners-up would face an initially trickier tie against the runners-up of Group A (Turkey or Switzerland), but would then face an easier quarter-final match against either the winners of Group C (possibly Netherlands), or the best third-placed team from Groups D/E/F.
Basically, if Belgium win the group, they could face Italy in the quarters, whereas they would avoid the Azzurri if they finished runners-up. But surely Martinez isn’t that cynical, and surely there is no way that BELGIUM TO WIN GROUP B should be as big as 5/6.
Group C
Group C is one of the more open groups in this summer’s tournament, though a quick look at the betting and you might be thinking differently.
Netherlands are the big name in the group, and they are short-priced favourites to finish ahead of the three other teams, but they are a far cry from the Total Football side of the 70s, or even of the Bert van Marwijk-led team that reached the 2010 World Cup Final.
Group C winner (via Sky Bet)
- Netherlands - 2/5
- Ukraine - 7/2
- Austria - 6/1
- North Macedonia - 28/1
Odds correct at 0800 BST (04/06/2021)
The Netherlands finished second in qualifying and also filled the runners-up spot in their Nations League group. They are led by Frank de Boer, a man who was sacked by Crystal Palace after just four games in charge, and they have few players that could be categorized as “world-class”, particularly with Virgil Van Dijk now set to miss the tournament.
Ukraine won their qualifying group, finishing ahead of Portugal, and they pulled off a couple of upsets in the Nations League as well, notably beating Spain 1-0.
Andriy Shevchenko’s side may be second favourites, but a standout price of 21/4 for UKRAINE TO WIN GROUP C looks big enough to warrant taking a chance on.
Austria may also pose a threat, but after a good Nations League campaign, they have stumbled a little recently – particularly when losing 4-0 to Denmark in a World Cup qualifier – while bottom seed North Macedonia surely have little chance as far as top spot is concerned.
Group D
For all that Scotland fans may have been initially delighted to be drawn in a group with England, the harsh reality is they will do incredibly well to make it past the group stage, and the Tartan Army face the very real possibility of finishing bottom Group D.
England are heavy favourites to top the group, and rightly so, Gareth Southgate’s side the second favourites for the entire tournament, and it looks to be the team that knocked England out of the 2018 World Cup, Croatia, who will follow them into the Round of 16, according to the betting anyway.
Group D winner (via Sky Bet)
- England - 4/11
- Croatia - 3/1
- Czech Republic - 12/1
- Scotland - 16/1
Odds correct at 0800 BST (04/06/2021)
Croatia do have an aging team though, and that could leave the door open for a Czech Republic side chocked full of exuberance and nous.
The Czechs finished runners-up to England in qualifying, actually beating Southgate’s side in Prague, and they also finished ahead of the Scots in the pair’s Nations League group.
The Scots finished third in their qualifying group but made it to the Euros via the play-offs, beating Serbia on penalties, and their price to finish bottom of the group isn’t particularly reflective of a team of their qualities.
They have a few good players in their ranks but they have really struggled for results in the run up to this tournament, and given some firms are odds-on about SCOTLAND FINISHING BOTTOM OF GROPU D, a price of 11/8 for just that to happen is hard to pass up.
Group E
Initially, backing Slovakia to finish bottom of Group E may seem uninspired, but the more we delve into the numbers, the better a bet it does begin to look.
Spain are obvious favourites to win the group, but the race for second place is a tough one to call, and the bookmakers agree, with Sweden priced up at around 17/10, and Poland 13/8 (1.1% difference in probability terms).
Group E winner (via Sky Bet)
- Spain - 2/5
- Sweden - 5/1
- Poland - 11/2
- Slovakia - 14/1
Odds correct at 0800 BST (05/06/2021)
With the four best third-placed teams also making it through to the knockout stages, both Sweden and Poland are still odds-on to qualify for the Round of 16, roughly 2/5 and 4/11 respectively, which means the bookmakers are dead set on these two sides filling the second and third places, in one order or another.
Slovakia only qualified for the European Championship through the play-offs, finishing third to Croatia and Wales in their qualifying group, and they struggled for form in the Nations League as well, finishing bottom of their group in League B.
Slovakia are by no means a bad team, but they do tend to struggle in particular against the bigger nations, and with most firms pricing SLOVAKIA TO FINISH BOTTOM OF GROUP E at 4/6, the 10/11 on offer with Sky Bet is actually a very good price.
Group F
Poor Hungary. Poor, poor Hungary. Hungary qualified for their fourth European Championship via the play-offs, beating Iceland with two dramatic late goals, and how are they repaid? By being drawn against the World Champions and the European Champions, as well as Germany, in the “group of death”.
Unfortunately for Hungary, it is highly unlikely that they will make it out of Group F, but for the other three teams involved, it seems to be a lottery as to who is going to top the group.
Group F winner (via Sky Bet)
- Germany - 11/8
- France - 13/8
- Portugal - 11/4
- Hungary - 33/1
Odds correct at 0800 BST (05/06/2021)
Unlike other groups there is no clear favourite to win Group F, and plenty of bookmakers are actually disagreeing as to who should be at the head of the betting, with some installing France as favourites, and some Germany.
It is odd though, that some firms have the Germans as group favourites given their recent woes, a 6-0 hammering by Spain followed a few months later by a defeat to North Macedonia that caused nothing short of a national inquest.
Consider as well the fact that Joachim Low is also looking to the past rather than the future by reinstating Thomas Muller into the squad, and it is difficult to see Germany doing particularly well at this tournament.
Portugal can be backed at as big as 9/2 in places to win Group F, but given their tendency to not win games in 90 minutes (they only won once in normal time when winning this competition in 2016), they are also tough to get behind.
That leaves Euro 2016 runners-up and World Cup winners France, who incredibly can be backed at as big as 17/10 to top the group.
France are now outright favourites for Euro 2020 with most firms, and perhaps rightly so. They have an abundance of world-class talent at their disposal, defensively as well as offensively, and they are surely the team to beat in this group.
Given how much this team have achieved over the last five-or-so years, backing FRANCE TO WIN GROUP F is the recommended bet in the final group.
Odds correct at 0800 BST (05/06/2021)
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