Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Under 0.5 home goals at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jude Bellingham to be shown a card at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Bellingham to score and be carded at 15/1 (Paddy Power)
17/1 bet builder: O'Reilly 2+ fouls committed, Yamal 2+ fouls committed, Bellingham card (bet365)
"I got told off of course, for the substitutions."
In Thomas Tuchel's first press conference since the World Cup, the England manager expertly got out in front of the predictable questions about his decision making in the second half of England's gut-wrenching semi-final defeat by Argentina by joking about what was discussed in the FA's post-tournament review.
"99.9% of the fans don't speak about substitutions or tactics" 🏴
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) September 18, 2026
Thomas Tuchel has reflected on the response to England's World Cup run 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/qFpzs3A5XZ
Bukayo Saka, inexplicably left on the bench for the duration of that ill-fated night in Atlanta, was less jovial.
"You try to move on as soon as possible, but you know a scar is a scar, it decides to heal when it heals itself."
Three days after that loss Saka scored a hat-trick in a madcap 6-4 win over France in what resembled closer to a testimonial than a genuine third-placed play-off. Now, exactly 10 weeks on, the Three Lions return to action.
And they could hardly have been handed a stiffer test in their opening Nations League fixture.
Two years and counting
In their quest to rid themselves of memories of so many recent near-misses, staring back at them will be their complete antithesis.
Spain have not lost in 38 matches, winning the Euros and World Cup in that time, striking late to beat England in the final of the former.
They conceded just one goal across their eight fixtures in North America this summer and have kept 12 clean sheets in their past 14 matches.
How on Earth do you beat them? England's chances of becoming the first team in two and a half years to do so has been made considerably harder by a raft of withdrawals.
Six of the players who went to the World Cup were already unavailable when the original squad was named, before Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Kobbie Mainoo, Marcus Rashford and Tino Livramento all withdrew on Monday.
Spain will have a new face at right-back following an injury to Tottenham defender Pedro Porro and the international retirement of Marcos Llorente, with Barcelona's Eric Garcia tipped to come in.
Overall, though, they look even stronger than in the summer as wingers Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are back to full fitness.
It's hard to make a case for England and with 5/2 available for UNDER 0.5 HOME GOALS, that is advised.
England have struggled for fluidity in attack under Tuchel, especially at Wembley. Despite a very favourable home schedule - Albania, Latvia, Senegal (at the City Ground), Andorra, Wales, Serbia, Uruguay and Japan - they have averaged just 1.75 goals per game.
Only twice, in a qualifier against Latvia and friendly with Wales, have they scored more than twice.
The Nations League does provide an interesting side bar to both qualifying and tournament football, though. Seven of Spain's 10 games in the last edition saw both teams score. But they had nothing like the defensive record they do now, and their dominant World Cup win shows how much the team has developed since.
The context of the fixture ultimately steered me away from the 6/5 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO', but only just.
Who else?
JUDE BELLINGHAM looks a touch large in several markets, with the 12/1 about him to score first and 4/1 anytime both worthy of interest if you're willing to oppose Spain's incredible recent clean sheet record.
The Real Madrid star burst into life for Tuchel's team at the World Cup by scoring seven times in eight appearances, ending a run of 11 England matches without a goal.
What has never gone away is his tendency TO BE SHOWN CARD with nine coming in his last 27 starts for his country, making the 7/2 value. I'll also hedge the England unders by taking half a point on BELLINGHAM TO SCORE AND BE CARDED at 15/1.
England vs Spain bet builder
On top of the BELLINGHAM CARD two other bets are added for a 17/1 bet builder, which is top price with bet365.
It could be a tricky night for NICO O'REILLY who is expected to start at left-back up against YAMAL. The Manchester City defender has COMMITTED at least one FOUL in every match he has started this season and is averaging TWO per 90. Only once at the World Cup was he tested by an out and out winger, making three fouls against DR Congo.
YAMAL makes plenty himself, COMMITTING 2.05 per 90 at the World Cup.
Odds correct at 11:00 BST (26/09/26)
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