Alex Keble backs Premier League clubs to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League
Alex Keble is backing all five Premier League clubs in the last 16 to progress to the Champions League quarter-finals.
By Alex Keble
- This piece was published on Monday, prior to Tuesday's first round of fixtures
The power shift has been a long time coming. A spell of unrivalled English dominance in Europe has been mooted for the best part of a decade, but until now the Premier League’s obscene riches haven’t lead to a monopolisation of the Champions League.
On three separate occasions since 2007, the Premier League has increased its television rights deal by 70 per cent. Each time this has been met with pessimistic analysis bemoaning the chasm between England and the rest of Europe – and predicting a new era of English clubs clogging up the final stages of the Champions League. It looks as though 2017/18 is finally the year when those gloomy predictions will come true.
It’s taken an awfully long time for the Premier League to work out what to do with all that money. Years of throwing cash at superstars in the hope that something might stick proved predictably unfruitful (not least because the relative austerity in Spain, France and Germany forced their clubs to invest smartly and build from the bottom up). But the penny finally dropped when Leicester City won the title in 2015/16 as Antonio Conte, Pep Guardiola, and Jurgen Klopp joined Jose Mourinho to make England the undisputed home of Europe’s finest tacticians.
The shift in policy has clearly worked. Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham Hotspur are among the most interesting tactical outfits in Europe; each should win their Champions League second-round fixture over the next four weeks to make 62.5 per cent of this year’s quarter-finalists represented by England.
Tottenham Hotspur
Sky Bet's 'To Qualify' odds: Juventus 8/11, Tottenham 11/10
One of the most finely poised Champions League ties is Juventus v Spurs, with both sides in superb form recently. Juve have won 14 of their last 16 matches and conceded just one goal in that time, suggesting the Old Lady are back to their best following a difficult first half of the campaign. However, it looks as though neither Andrea Barzagli nor Paulo Dybala will return from injury in time for the first leg, which should encourage the visitors to pick up an important draw before troubling the Italian champions on the wide Wembley pitch.
Juve no longer boast some of the world’s best atta ckers, instead focusing on a remarkably solid defensive shape built around a deep-lying 4-3-3 formation. Spurs won’t be able to sit back and draw their opponents forward (as they did against Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund), but instead will most likely be encouraged to hold the majority of possession themselves. In theory, this suits Juve more than the English outfit, although Tottenham’s recent 1-0 win against Arsenal reflects their growing maturity when asked to dictate the tempo. Mauricio Pochettino’s remarkably well-drilled positional coaching ensures Spurs won’t concede sloppy goals or be fazed by the stoic discipline of their hosts.
The Serie A giants have scored just two goals in their last four matches against strong opponents (Barcelona, Inter Milan, Roma, and Napoli). A low-scoring tie, then, is very likely, although it would not be a surprise should Dele Alli and Harry Kane, both of whom come to life in big games such as this, begin to overwhelm a Juve defence without Barzagli. The second leg should follow the same pattern as the first, except on such a big Wembley pitch Spurs’ tendency to narrow the play before switching the ball to their overlapping full-backs could seriously hurt Max Allegri’s side. Spurs should edge it.
Manchester City
Sky Bet's 'To Qualify' odds: Basel 7/1, Manchester City 1/14
It seems more or less impossible that Manchester City, undoubtedly the best team in the world right now, will fail to advance to the quarter-finals. Swiss outfit FC Basel are currently second in the Super League having lost three of their last six league games, including damaging home defeats to Victoria Plzn and Lugano. Their tactical approach to the City tie will differ greatly from their league system, but nevertheless a lack of self-assurance in the camp suggests Guardiola’s team will win comprehensively.
Basel defied expectations by winning four of their group matches but took advantage of a woeful showing from both CSKA Moscow and Benfica in this season’s competition. The only notable win was the 1-0 success at home to Manchester United, although they lost 3-0 at Old Trafford – strongly suggesting that even a shock result in Switzerland won’t be enough to halt City over two legs. They averaged 42 per cent possession in the group stages and made the second fewest tackles (15 per game); Basel will sit extremely deep and look to absorb pressure, which – as Premier League clubs have worked out – simply doesn’t work against the extraordinary creativity of Kevin de Bruyne.
Liverpool
Sky Bet's 'To Qualify' odds: Porto 7/4, Liverpool 2/5
Porto have only lost two competitive matches all season, but rather than hinting at their strength this actually suggests they are very vulnerable to Liverpool’s front three. Being so infrequently challenged in Portugal means they have very little practice playing on the back foot or controlling games that threaten to become chaotic end-to-end ties – as their Champions League record this season shows.
Porto don’t know how to play defensive football. They conceded 10 goals in the group stage, more than any other club that qualified for the second round – bar Sevilla, whose record was worsened by shipping five goals across two games against Liverpool. All of which points to an open couple of matches in which Porto fail to adequately understand how to keep Mohamed Salah or Roberto Firmino quiet, pressing high and approaching the match as they would any other.
We can expect a high-scoring first leg, with Liverpool scoring some crucial away goals, before a controlled showing from Jurgen Klopp’s side in front of an intimidating Anfield crowd. Liverpool love playing against attacking opposition; they should comfortably outscore Porto.
Chelsea
Sky Bet's 'To Qualify' odds: Chelsea 9/4, Barcelona 1/3
As a mini crisis develops at Stamford Bridge amid Antonio Conte’s scarcely veiled attacks on his own employers, the second-round tie against LaLiga leaders Barcelona could hardly have come at a worse time. However, Chelsea’s rather fickle players will definitely raise their levels for such a big game while Conte’s defensive instincts stand the Londoners in good stead against a deceptively poor Barcelona side.
Barca have only scored eight goals in their last six matches in all competitions, reflecting their stuttering form and inability to find fluency in a post-Iniesta world. The Spaniard no longer runs matches and without his influence the club are strangely tepid in midfield, rarely creating space for Lionel Messi or Luis Suarez – particularly when tasked with picking apart a deep-lying opponent. Conte’s 3-5-1-1 formation has been far too defensive this season, although on this occasion such a narrow midfield block should stunt the influence of Messi and Suarez, particularly with Philippe Coutinho cup tied.
Barca won’t be able to play through Chelsea, creating a low-scoring game not dissimilar to the English champions’ 2-1 win away at Atletico Madrid earlier in the season – one of the most complete performances from a Chelsea side in Europe we’ve ever seen. It would be typical of Chelsea (where player power seems unusually high) to save their two best performances of the season for this one, counter-attacking their way into the quarter-finals.
Manchester United
Sky Bet's 'To Qualify' odds: Sevilla 7/4, Manchester United 2/5
No matter what’s happening in the Premier League you can rely upon a Jose Mourinho team to squeeze into the latter stages of the Champions League. Vincenzo Montella’s Sevilla are aggressive, open, and unpredictable, which makes them an ideal opponent for a Manchester United side who relish frustrating attacking sides and eking out narrow wins on foreign soil.
Sevilla will look to push United back in the first leg and take a commanding lead to Old Trafford, but their longstanding issue of racing forward too eagerly will most likely be punished by Paul Pogba and Alexis Sanchez. Mourinho seems resistant to the idea of a 4-3-3 formation – the only current system in which Pogba can flourish – but knowing the speed and narrowness of Sevilla’s attacks we will see this come back for the trip to Spain.
Ever Banega’s injury leaves Sevilla significantly weakened, as their 5-1 defeat to Eibar at the beginning of February suggested, and so a controlled defensive display in Seville should set United up for a straight-forward win at Old Trafford. The sixth best team in Spain is simply not good enough to outwit a Mourinho side in Europe.
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