Football betting tips: EFL
League One
2pts e.w. Joe Taylor (Huddersfield) top goalscorer at 8/1 (bet365, 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Aaron Collins (MK Dons) top goalscorer at 25/1 (General, 1/4 1,2,3,4)
League Two
1pts e.w. Rotherham to win the title at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, 1/4 1,2,3)
5pts Rotherham top seven at 7/2 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Iwan Morgan (Grimsby) top goalscorer at 66/1 (bet365, 1/4 1,2,3,4)
I had an operation earlier this week so the following is brought to you by prescription drugs.
If you read the following and think this is the most sense this guy has ever made, you know why.
I peddle the same spiel every international break but the first of the season is a welcome one. A chance to dive a little deeper into the clubs still in action and crucially have a proper look for some outright value.
I’ve resisted the urge to dip into the long term stuff until this point but we’ve seen enough football now with our eyes, and there’s enough data out there to dip our bread.
MK Dons got touted last weekend here, with a few more bets tipped from League One and League Two below.
This weekend's bets are here.
League One Top Goalscorer
JOE TAYLOR opened at 33s in LEAGUE ONE's TOP GOALSCORER market and then quickly got trimmed into 25/1.
There were too many questions though to take that price pre-season though. Will he actually play? Will he play alongside someone in attack? And will he take penalties?
The answer to all those is an emphatic yes, and with Taylor’s relatively clean injury history, this could finally be the season he has a settled campaign playing in a system which suits him.
He’s got five goals in seven appearances this season (0.81 goals per 90) and 15 goals last season across spells with the Terriers and a struggling Wigan (0.58 goals per 90).
He played for two clubs in 24/25, scoring no goals across 13 appearances, starting a grand total of zero matches, for Luton in the Championship and netting twice for Huddersfield in the third tier.
The season before, Taylor netted a combined total of 21 goals for Colchester in League Two and Lincoln in League One.
The guy just scores goals. All told, he’s got a 0.53 goals per 90 average and even at 8/1, I think he’s worth taking.
Part of the reasoning is Jack Marriott’s price.
Marriott is the early leader with eight goals, three ahead of the chasing pack, but is a measly 5/2 to top the goalscoring charts.
Fitness is the issue with Marriott. He’s not played over 40 league games since 17/18 and not managed over 30 since 19/20.
So, at 25s, AARON COLLINS is worth a point each way as well.
Collins has five goals this campaign, level with Taylor, and has racked up an xG of 3.6 (5th most in league). For context, Taylor has 4.6 (2nd) and Marriott 3.8 (4th).
Collins failed to get going last season, only managing six goals in 29 League Two appearances, but has hit double figures across his previous five campaigns.
Millers to get on the move
Doesn’t bother ‘em in ROTHERHAM.
The Millers have had one of the toughest schedules in League Two and yet, seven games in, they have taken a very respectable nine points (W2 D3 L2), boasting the 4th best xG difference in the league (+4.4) behind York, Chesterfield and Grimsby.
Alex Bruce’s side have played pre-season title favourites Salford (3-3), second-favourites and punters pick Bristol Rovers (1-0), perennial nearly men Chesterfield (2-1) and new hotshots York (1-1).
They’ve also beaten strugglers Northampton, drawn at Tranmere and lost at high-flying Cheltenham in their first game.
At prices of 7/2 TO FINISH IN THE TOP 7 and 50s TO WIN THE TITLE, Rotherham are worth a punt to start motoring into the promotion picture.
Obviously, the league table means nothing at this point in time - it’s too early! But for context, Salford are ahead of the Millers by a point, with the latter two points off the play-offs and six off top spot.
If I rank Rotherham’s schedule red in terms of difficulty, Salford’s would be amber. Barnet, Rotherham and Chesterfield are all tough fixtures but they’ve also played Shrewsbury, Newport, Port Vale and Swindon (H).
Their form is patchy (LLLWWDW), the Ammies were fortunate to share the spoils at the New York, netting the equaliser from the spot with 10 men and the underlying data is below average with an xG difference of -1.5 (14th).
Anyway, Salford are generally 4/9 to finish in the top seven and 13/2 to win the league and this is a long winded way of saying I'd rather be on Rotherham.
It’s been a summer of upheaval in South Yorkshire, but the Millers have impressive squad depth. Any injury to a key player or two could de-rail their season but the same could be said for the other 23 teams in the division.
League Two top Goalscorer
Sound the alarm - Grimsby scored a penalty!
New man and number nine IWAN MORGAN dispatched it and it’s part of the reason why his price of 66/1 to finish as LEAGUE TWO’S TOP GOALSCORER appeals.
Charles Vernam missed a penalty against Crawley last weekend before Morgan tucked his away. Last season, the Mariners were awarded 12 penalties and missed half, so it is fair to say Morgan will probably continue as their penalty taker from here on in.
Get in there, Morgz! 💥#GTFC pic.twitter.com/rMBDbkI5dA
— Grimsby Town F.C. (@officialgtfc) September 19, 2026
It was only Morgan’s second start upfront in the league for Grimsby, he’s made the majority of his appearances from the bench, but with Andy Cook nursing a knock, Morgan has a chance to nail down the number nine slot.
He netted three times on loan at struggling Shrewsbury last season but averaged 3.33 shots per 90 and has continued with his shoot on sight approach on the East Coast, averaging 5.81 shots per 90.
Even if he has to play second fiddle to Cook, David Artell utilised Morgan off the left and this is Grimsby team that will score goals. The Mariners netted 74 last season (2nd most) after all.
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (24/09/26)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
