The Premier League returns this weekend, including a huge game as Man City host Arsenal on Saturday. Tom Carnduff previews the clash...
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1pt Arsenal/Draw on double chance v Manchester City at 15/8
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Manchester City v Arsenal
- 17:30 BST on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 2/5 | Draw 4/1 | Away 6/1
Have we hit crisis stage with Manchester City stage yet? I'm not too sure. Are they enduring a seriously problematic start to the season? Most definitely.
Results elsewhere have almost masked City's poor start but they were hammered by Leicester before nearly being beaten by Leeds. Pep Guardiola's side may have dominated the opening 20 minutes at Elland Road but they could have so easily lost.
What those two games highlighted is just how problematic this City defence is; only the woodwork and Ederson denied Leeds scoring more than once before the international break. Arsenal have shown in the FA Cup that they can beat City, and the attractive odds on them getting something here and just too good to turn down.
Guardiola has spent an eye-watering amount of money on defenders and yet the defence remains a problem. It's beginning to feel like this season could be his last at the Etihad and the current problems can be exploited by a new-look Arsenal under Mikel Arteta.
Alex Keble's excellent tactical preview has more, but Arsenal did such a good job of setting traps and then hitting City on the counter in their victory at Wembley. The hosts leave huge gaps between their lines and that helped Leicester to success too.
Arsenal will likely go for the counter attack option here and City could fall for their traps once again. How many times have we seen Guardiola's side beaten by teams hitting them with pace on the attack? It's a flaw in the system and it's one they have failed to solve.
I'd never have previously dreamt of backing Arsenal to get something at the Etihad but Arteta has them drilled and the arrival of Thomas Partey shows that the board believe in him to guide them back to the top-four places. Partey may not be involved here, but Arteta has the players at his disposal to play the way he wants.
You want to believe that City are a smarter side than falling for the same issues they faced before, but recent games have shown that may not be the case. Benjamin Mendy and Kyle Walker could well be players to target for the visitors as they look for success down the flanks.
That makes Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang an interesting anytime goalscorer bet as he lines up on the left-side of an attacking trio. He's a variety of prices but they are all around the 17/10 mark. In a Premier League season that has seen plenty of goals, there could well be more on Saturday evening.
The best value comes in backing Arsenal/Draw on the double chance with odds of 15/8 available at the time of writing. You can't see that getting much shorter as Arsenal remain 6/1 outsiders. City have problems at the moment; this isn't the same dominant side we saw two seasons ago.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Arsenal/Draw on double chance at 15/8
Opta facts
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W7 D2), since a 1-2 loss in December 2015. They’ve scored at least twice in all nine of these games.
- Arsenal have lost their last six Premier League meetings with Manchester City, shipping three goals in five of those six games. They last had a longer losing run against an opponent in league competition versus Ipswich between 1974-1977 (7).
- Arsenal have won just one of their last nine away league games against Man City (D2 L6), winning 2-0 in January 2015. They’ve lost all four at the Etihad against Pep Guardiola.
- This is the third of their four Premier League games this season that Manchester City are starting the day in the bottom half of the table – as many as in their previous 375 matches in the competition.
- Manchester City have won just four points from their three league games this season, their lowest total at this stage since 2010-11. Meanwhile, only twice in their league history have the Citizens lost both of their opening two home games in a season – 1930-31 and 1953-54.
- Manchester City are winless in their last two Premier League games, last going three without a win in the competition back in April 2017 (4). The third game in that run was a 2-2 draw with Arsenal.
- Arsenal have won eight of their last 12 Premier League games (D1 L3), more than they had in their previous 28 in the competition (W7 D13 L8). Indeed, since their loss to Brighton in June, no side has picked up more Premier League points than the Gunners (25).
- Arsenal have had 77 10+ open play pass sequences in the Premier League this season, with only Chelsea having more (81). Indeed, since Mikel Arteta took over at the club, the Gunners have scored more goals following a sequence of 10 or more passes than any other side in the division (11).
- Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in seven goals in his last eight Premier League starts against Arsenal (5 goals, 2 assists). The Belgian has scored more Premier League goals against the Gunners than he has versus any other side (5).
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored both goals in Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Man City in the FA Cup semi-final last season. However, he’s played more Premier League minutes without scoring against Man City than he has any other opponent (450), including missing a penalty in March 2018.
Also read...
Tactics Talk: Man City v Arsenal
The highlight of the Premier League weekend sees Manchester City welcome Arsenal. Alex Keble looks at the tactical battle. Take a look by clicking the image below.
Odds correct at 1415 BST (15/10/20)
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