Manchester City v Arsenal tactical analysis: Gunners to upset the odds?
Manchester City are quietly slipping towards a full-blown crisis. Against a backdrop of Liverpool shipping seven to Aston Villa, Manchester United sinking spectacularly towards the bottom three, and Everton surging to the top of the Premier League table, City’s poor start has almost gone under the radar.
But should they drop points against Arsenal on Saturday the developing catastrophe would take centre stage and Man City, having won just one of their opening four league games, would be enduring their worst start to a season in ten years.
The last time they failed to win three of their first four was Roberto Mancini’s first full season in charge, a time when the Mark Hughes era was still being cleaned up and when the billions were being pumped into the club so quickly the squad was in constant churn; a mess of differing visions and opportunistic power grabs. Pep Guardiola has no such excuse.
Mancini ended his debut campaign with a third-place finish, 71 points, and an FA Cup. Anything like that in 2020/21 and Guardiola’s job will be under threat.
Suffice to say this is a huge game, not least because the man in the opposite dugout is Guardiola’s protégé and the heir to the throne at the Etihad. Arsenal are playing with a tactical coherence, a confidence, and a sense of purpose that confirms Mikel Arteta is one of the brightest prospects in world football. For Guardiola to lose this game would be a hugely symbolic moment; a transferring of power, perhaps, signifying endings and new beginnings on the horizon.
Tactical analysis of the two clubs’ recent performances suggests an Arsenal win is a distinct possibility.
How Arteta masterminded the FA Cup semi-final win
In the 2-0 win at Wembley back in July, Arsenal were aggressive and took risks in their football to unsettle Man City’s rhythm, chiefly by bravely pressing high from goal kicks and by patiently passing out from the back in spite of City pressure. While in years gone by opponents were too fearful of Man City’s qualities to do either of these things – a general territorial retreat allowing Guardiola’s side to grind them down – the cracks that have emerged over the last 12 months have changed all that.
The first part of the plan disrupted City’s play. Arsenal’s fearless press prevented City from cycling the ball as they would like, leading to a choppy performance and a gradual decline in confidence, in turn allowing Arsenal to build their way into the contest. We can certainly anticipate Arsenal deploying this system again, emboldened by their previous success and by Leicester City’s in the 5-2 win three weeks ago.
The second part was designed to lure City forward, essentially setting a trap by inviting pressure before quickly evading it and creating counter-attack-like situations. By passing out dangerously from their own goal kicks, Arsenal gave their opponents the confidence to press high, and once Arteta’s players had beaten the first wave they were suddenly faced with huge spaces in the City half, using their pace in the forward line to expose old flaws.
This high-risk approach (also seen against Liverpool this season, and wrongly labelled by many as the sign of naïve management) led directly to the first goal at Wembley. Given the problems developing for Man City in 2020/21, it ought to work again this weekend.
City’s biggest tactical flaw this season
Although individual defensive errors have no doubt undermined Man City this season it would be a mistake to assume a higher quality back four would make them less vulnerable; the likes of Benjamin Mendy, Kyle Walker, and Eric Garcia only made mistakes because they were exposed by the team’s tactical shape.
The real issue isn’t the defenders, but what is happening in front of them. City just don’t press with the same rigour as before, and collectively appear disjointed in a way that hints at either poor fitness, Guardiola’s message no longer being heard, or both. The forwards aren’t as sharp closing down, the midfield over-extend to compensate, and the defence starts to backpedal rather than take the calculated risk of following up behind.
The result of this is disconnection and huge gaps between the lines. Time and time again the midfield struggled to get tight enough to Leicester, who passed the ball calmly around that tentative first wave of pressure to find themselves in acres of space – behind central midfield and in front of a retreating defence. Harvey Barnes and James Maddison found it far too easy to get on the ball in this zone, and had the time to pick out those dangerous slide passes through to Jamie Vardy.
There is a general perception that Man City need to work out how to defend those simple through balls between centre-back and full-back, when in reality the problem lies further back in the move. Fernandinho has lost some of his athleticism and Rodri is a poor imitation; City just don’t have the midfield to hound the ball down with the same venom and dexterity, and the knock-on effect of that is a more nervous defence unwilling to push up to meet the midfield line.
The pattern of the game
And so Arsenal’s natural plan – to pass their way out of the press and counter in behind; to press high and disrupt City’s pattern – is the ideal way to exacerbate Guardiola’s tactical issues. It’s worth backing Arsenal to win at 6/1.
To return to their most recent meeting at Wembley, Granit Xhaka played a crucial role in sprinting a long way out of his base position to close down Kevin de Bruyne as he dropped to get on the ball, and we can expect to see that happen again on Saturday. Whether it’s Xhaka or Mohamed Elneny (presumably Thomas Partey won’t be thrown in at the deep end), this represents the game’s most important battle – and a symbol of Arsenal’s approach as a whole.
They should be successful, meaning a tactical pattern that is a bit clumsy and meandering, in keeping with the eerie discomfort of the 2020/21 Premier League season as a whole. City will dominate possession but struggle to do anything with it, while Arsenal will wait for key moments to pounce – either forcing an error in the City third or exploding into life behind the City back line.
Given Walker’s on-going issues, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can expect some joy on the break, and is a good bet to score any time at 7/4, while Nicolas Pepe could be given licence to run directly at Mendy.
Man City could benefit from chaos
But there is, of course, always the chance we will see yet another high-scoring game as the empty stadiums continue to reshape the very nature of the sport. Arsenal’s defence is renowned for making errors, as we saw against Liverpool, and so City’s forwards could end up scoring freely.
The same goes for Arsenal. It is increasingly difficult to predict anything in the Premier League with confidence, and at a time like this it’s worth putting a small wager on over 5.5 goals at 5/1.
But if the game avoids descending into chaos, then Arsenal – the more organised and confident of the two sides – should be able to repeat their Wembley performance to compound tactical problems that Guardiola currently seems incapable of solving. He is at an important crossroads – and faces his mentee at the worst possible moment.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (13/10/20)
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