Fresh from three winners on Thursday night, Joe Rindl returns with the preview and best bet for QPR's trip to Derby on Monday night.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 51/25 (SBK, Sporting Index & VBet)
Since the news broke that Derby would be facing a further points deduction after admitting breaches of English Football League accounting rules, the Rams have had a bit of a renaissance.
The latest nine-point penalty left Wayne Rooney's side on -3 points and 18 points from safety at the bottom of the Championship table.
The East Midlanders are still heavy favourites to go down, but they are continuing to show a fighting spirit. Their two matches since the deduction were against top two Bournemouth and Fulham.
The Rams stunned league-leaders Bournemouth 3-2 in a thriller last weekend, before holding Fulham to a 0-0 draw in midweek with a fine defensive display despite getting hammered in the xG stats 2.16 to 0.22.
Can they repeat their heroics? They’re up against another Championship high-flyer on Friday night.
QPR are one of the division’s in-form teams. They’ve won three of their past five league fixtures, including victories in their last two.
Mark Warburton’s side were fourth in the table before the weekends' matches and could climb to as high as third with a win on the road on Monday night.
The R’s have been mediocre on their travels this season though, with three wins, two draws and four defeats.
And their record against the bottom three this season has been lacking, drawing 2-2 with Barnsley in August and losing 2-1 at Peterborough in October.
While I wouldn't rule out a third upset on the spin for the Rams, personally I’m going to steer well clear of the outrights and back goals to fly in in the East Midlands.
The Rams may have held Fulham to a goalless draw in midweek, but that match ended a run of six straight games in which Wayne Rooney’s side found the net.
Queens Park Rangers also have a strong goalscoring reputation. Rangers have scored the fourth-most goals in the Championship this term, behind just top two Bournemouth and Fulham and a Ben Brereton Diaz-boosted Blackburn Rovers.
Incredibly, QPR have found the net in every single one of their league games this term, and have only failed to score in one match all campaign, a 0-0 EFL Cup tie with Sunderland.
Unsurprisingly then, Both Teams to Score ‘Yes’ is odds-on at 4/5 with most bookies.
I am however a little shocked to see OVER 2.5 GOALS above evens at 51/25 with SBK, Sporting Index and VBet.
Seven of QPR’s 10 away games this season have seen that bet come through. Three of Derby’s last five matches and four of their last six have also seen over 2.5 goals.
It offers more value than BTTS and could protect punters if Derby were to fire a blank against a high-scoring QPR team who have conceded just two in their last five.
Backing the overs is the play I'll be making on Monday night.
Derby v QPR score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Over 2.5 goals at 51/25 (SBK, Sporting Index & VBet)
Score prediction: Derby 1-3 QPR (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Odds correct 2130 GMT (26/11/21)
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