Transfer window: Which club will make signings on deadline day and who will they sign?

In any normal season, the end of the transfer window would come with around a third of the campaign left to play. Obviously, this isn’t a normal season.

With the window nearing its end in 2020/21, Premier League clubs still have just under 50% of the campaign to go, meaning January signings have plenty of games to make a serious impact this term.

But so far, and rather understandably given the uncertain times we're living in, there haven't been many top-flight incomings. The vast majority of the ones that have happened have tended to be free transfers or loans.

The most expensive acquisition has been Aston Villa’s £15.5m signing of midfielder Morgan Sanson from Marseille; even that turned very few heads.

But there are some clubs that really do need to make reinforcements.

Will West Ham buy a striker?

David Moyes has done a fantastic job at West Ham, turning them from relegation candidates to a team that could potentially gatecrash the top six.

They have a very balanced and settled starting XI, but there was a notable dip in underlying xG process when Michail Antonio was out injured.

In his absence, he has missed nine of West Ham’s 20 games, the Hammers turned to Sebastien Haller to fill the void.

Every single metric was down when Antonio was sidelined, which could go someway to explaining the Irons willingness to accept Ajax's £20m offer for the now departed Haller.

On average, West Ham have been around 1.3 xG better per game with Antonio in the starting line-up, collecting 0.8 expected points (xP) more per game.

While it is not a revelation to learn that a team's main striker can make such a difference, these numbers do perhaps highlight the importance of a good number nine in Moyes’ system; Haller clearly could not play the Antonio role.

He averaged 0.33 xG per 95 minutes compared to Antonio’s 0.65, but now he has gone, the Hammers have no-one at all to step in at all should Antonio be unavailable again.

As an attacking midfielder, Jesse Lingard's seemingly imminent arrival from Manchester United would not solve this problem.

Bournemouth striker Josh King, however, could prove to be a good back-up. Having been as short as 1/2 with Sky Bet earlier in the window, he has drifted to 2/1 to make the move to London Stadium - it's a deal that would make sense.

Having started only four times in the Sky Bet Championship this season through a combination of injury and being out of favour, it is hard to judge his performances, but last season in the Cherries relegation campaign, King averaged a steady 0.30 xG per 95 minutes in a struggling team, while also contributing 0.19 expected assists (xA).

If he is happy playing second fiddle to Antonio, he could prove to be a solid signing, especially given his capability to play in all positions across the front three.

But if we're shopping in the Championship, and West Ham have £20m to play with, the Hammers should be returning to Brentford after their October signing of Said Benrahma and looking at Ivan Toney.

The second-tier's joint-top scorer with 16 goals, he is averaging an impressive 0.59 xG per 95 minutes, as well as providing an excellent foil for his teammates.

A little further afield, and there are a few players that catch the eye, one being Sevilla’s Youssef En-Nesyri.

The mobile and dynamic forward would provide stiff competition in the centre forward position, with his average of 0.68 xG per 95 minutes the ninth-best process of any player to have played 600+ minutes across Europe’s top five leagues.

Who should Everton sign?

While Everton are looking at securing European football this term, their underlying numbers have fallen off a cliff of late, their thin squad fully exposed.

The Toffees' starting XI, when fit and firing, can mix it with the best in the Premier League, but the drop from first choice to back-up is huge all over the pitch.

A front three of James Rodriguez, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison started the season in electric form, sitting top of both the actual table and xG table after five matches, boasting the best attacking process (2.15 xGF per game).

Injuries hit, and soon after their numbers deteriorated. The likes of Seamus Coleman and Lucas Digne offer excellent attacking service, and they were no longer available, leading to Carlo Ancelotti slamming the car in reverse.

Focusing more on defending, Everton have been tough to beat and have collected results, but their numbers are unsustainable, so need to get back to what they showcased at the start of the campaign, otherwise results will drop off.

Since gameweek five, Everton have averaged 1.09 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.56 expected goals against (xGA) per game, while racking up the fifth fewest xP per game in the entire league. Basically, they are putting up relegation numbers, so unless things change, it is unlikely they'll hang around the top six.

Isco is a player that could do help solve their problems. Everton need more quality in back-up positions, but he would improve their starting XI.

His underlying numbers over the past few years, with limited game time, have been very strong. He is a quality player with an unbelievable eye for a pass as well as sensational dribbling ability.

At 28, he still has his best football ahead of him, and would slot in nicely as the number 10 in a 4-2-3-1 system, being flanked by James and Richarlison. That would help Everton get back on track from an attacking stand point.

Just like James, Isco has fallen out of favour at Real Madrid, leading to speculation that his former boss Ancelotti will come in for him.

It's no surprise that the deal has been 2/1 with Sky Bet throughout this month, because it's a move that makes sense.

Wolves have experienced a concerning downturn this season, leaving them in the bottom half of the table and looking down rather than up.

After finishing seventh in back-to-back seasons following promotion, occupying fifth spot in Infogol’s xG table in both campaigns, this drop-off wasn’t something that anyone saw coming.

The injury suffered by Raul Jimenez earlier in the campaign is a huge contributory factor, but perhaps one that isn’t discussed enough is the sale of Diogo Jota to Liverpool, and the lack of replacement.

Wolves have some talented players in the wide areas, with Pedro Neto, Daniel Podence and Adama Traore all showing glimpses of top quality, but none of them have got anywhere near the levels Jota produced.

In 2018/19, Jota averaged 0.53 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 95 minutes - the sum of xG and xA - and 0.56 last term. This season, Pedro Neto is the closest to replicating that level, averaging 0.40, with Podence and Traore coming up well short.

But, the biggest thing Jota brought to Wolves was that he kept getting on the end of good chances, especially last season, effectively sharing the scoring load with Jimenez.

When recruiting, Wolves tend to look towards Portugal, and one player over there has caught my eye as a potential signing for this Wolves team, a winger who gets in scoring positions.

Currently at Braga under the tutelage of Carlos Carvahal, Ricardo Horta is having a hell of a season.

He is averaging a huge 0.55 xG per 95 minutes, while also contributing 0.20 xA, proving to be an all-round threat and improving year-on-year.

At 26-years-old, he should be hitting his prime, and while the Primeira Liga is a different kettle of fish to the Premier League, the Portuguese culture at Wolves would certainly help him settle in.

Ultimately, Wolves are heavily reliant on Jimenez to provide the goals, highlighted by his absence.

While the signing of Willian Jose may go some way to plugging that gap, they still need someone to share the load as Jota did.

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