Premier League new boys Brentford travel to Crystal Palace in gameweek two, and Jake Pearson isn't expecting much goal-mouth action.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Crystal Palace 0-0 Brentford at 7/1 (General)
0.5pts Crystal Palace 1-0 Brentford at 7/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pts Crystal Palace 0-1 Brentford at 15/2 (BetVictor)
Patrick Vieira’s tenure at Crystal Palace got off to the worst possible start as they were drubbed 3-0 by Chelsea on the opening weekend of the Premier League season.
Not only was the result a disappointment, but Palace’s performance in general was far from encouraging, mustering just three shots in the entire game while creating chances equating to just 0.34 expected goals (xG).
It is difficult to not overreact to that result as memories of Frank de Boer come flooding back, but it must be placed in context; Palace were dealt one of, if not the, most difficult opening fixtures in the premier League.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
C Palace 8/5 | Draw 21/10 | Brentford 15/8
Chelsea were impressive under Thomas Tuchel in the second of last season, comfortably sweeping aside plenty of opponents, including when beating Crystal Palace 4-1, and defeat at the hands of the European Champions does not automatically mean you are destined for relegation.
Just as with Crystal Palace’s opening result, it is also important to take Brentford’s opening weekend win over Arsenal with a pinch of salt.
Undoubtedly, Brentford were impressive in the season’s curtain raiser, comfortably keeping the Gunners at bay while creating plenty of chances themselves, but does that mean they are value to beat Crystal Palace?
A week ago, when Brentford’s price was 11/4, the answer is unquestionably yes, but with bookmakers reacting to the respective results of both clubs, a price of 15/8 is relatively accurate.
That makes betting on the 1X2 market unappealing, but siding with a lack of goals could be a fruitful avenue in this fixture.
Patrick Vieira may have been brought in to impose a more expansive style of football at Selhurst Park, but if his time at Nice is anything to go by the Palace fans could be bitterly disappointed.
Vieira guided Nice to a seventh-placed finish in his only full season in charge of the club, but he did so on defensive merit; his side conceding an impressive average of 0.92 goals per game, but only managing to score 30 times, the third worst record in the league that season.
Brentford conceded an average of just 0.89 expected goals against (xGA) per game over the course of their promotion campaign, and they carried that trait over to the Premier League against Arsenal on Friday, limiting the Gunners to low-probability chances.
The Bees recorded clean sheets in 37% of their matches in the Sky Bet Championship last season, and solidity in defence will be the foundation behind their possible survival act.
Under 2.5 Goals is a short price at 4/7, and while the 15/8 on Under 1.5 Goals makes more appeal, we can actually enhance this price by simply backing each possible correct score i.e. 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1.
With the shortest price of the three available at 7/1, we are effectively backing Under 1.5 Goals at 7/3, or 3.33.
So, splitting our stakes across the 0-0, 1-0 AND 0-1 CORRECT SCORES is the smart play in a game that could be a difficult watch.
Crystal Palace v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 0.5pts Crystal Palace 0-0 Brentford at 7/1 (General)
- 0.5pts Crystal Palace 1-0 Brentford at 7/1 (BetVictor)
- 0.5pts Crystal Palace 0-1 Brentford at 15/2 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (19/08/21)
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