Jack Grealish is odds-on to sign for Man Utd this summer, but could he cut it at Old Trafford? As Villa face the Red Devils, Paul Macdonald takes a look.
Jack Grealish is a good player. It’s important to get that out of the way early.
Given what he has done for Aston Villa this season, a team that would already be doomed to relegation without him, it is a little disingenuous to suggest otherwise. Graeme Souness said on Sky Sports that he was yet to be convinced by Grealish’s potential to play for a top team, but this is a situation where people are forced into two camps; those that believe Grealish is maybe the last great English playmaker, and those who feel like he is grossly overhyped.
As usual the truth lies in the nuance. Villa have scored 36 Premier League goals this season and the 24-year-old has been involved in 36% of them (seven goals, six assists). That’s the same amount he managed in 34 Championship matches last season, when he was rightly lauded as one of the best players in the division, and he’s managed to do it at a higher level.
And despite the money spent by Villa - well over £100m to try and remain in the division - they haven’t bestowed Grealish with a forward anywhere near the required standard to work with. Mbwana Samatta and Wesley really haven’t worked out and, largely, if Grealish isn’t doing it, no-one else is.
Grealish’s 2.7 Key Passes P90 is, as you would expect, the highest in the Villa squad, and is among one of the best rates in the league. The likes of Mason Mount (1.6), Ross Barkley (2.1) and even Bruno Fernandes (2.3) are trailing him, though James Maddison (2.7) Emiliano Buendia (3.2) and, understandably, Kevin De Bruyne (3.8) are ahead.
Looking at Big Chances created, a stat where a player creates a chance in which his team-mate would be reasonably expected to convert, Grealish has six, which is slightly less impressive and is joint-32nd in the Premier League. De Bruyne is in a universe of his own for this statistic with 28, but some of Grealish’s aforementioned contemporaries are equal or better: Maddison (6), Buendia (7) and Mount (8).
And as a player who progresses his team forward and commits defenders, Grealish does just fine. In terms of completed dribbles P90, his 2.1 in the Premier League is good, but it’s not great. Again, Buendia (a player who is vastly underrated while also playing in a poor team) achieves a hefty 3.7 P90, though Grealish does do better than Mount (1.3) and Maddison (1.6).
People have been keen to pick up on the number of times he is fouled, too. With his socks at his ankles and his innate ability to position himself between defenders and the ball, he often looks like he is being targeted by the opposition - indeed his league-high 4.9 fouls P90 total would absolutely back this up (in the recent fixture against Chelsea he was fouled on nine separate occasions in the 90 minutes - a high for the season).
Grealish has said it doesn’t affect him and he relishes matches where he thinks he’ll get rough treatment, but it would be wrong to suggest that teams are setting out to hurt him; watching a cross-section of his fouls won sees a pattern of ‘winning’ the free-kick by going down when a defender is getting a little too close. Whether this regularly breaks up any kind of rhythm Villa attempt to build is difficult to say.
And when we look at his Expected Goals and Expected Assists, his total of 0.42 P90 is, again, not spectacular, but it’s not terrible either. He is performing at a level alongside other respected, and rated, attacking midfielders in the division, and could excel with a better supporting cast.
But his form post-lockdown has been extremely poor. He hasn’t scored or assisted in the five matches since the return, while his xG + xA p90 in that period has fallen to 0.21 - a significant drop-off. Whether he feels that, in normal times, he might be gearing up for a move to Manchester United right now… whatever it is he’s picked the wrong time, with every match available to watch and his performances under the microscope, to go on his worst run of form.
Villa look like they may go down and it feels in some quarters like, somehow, Grealish will be responsible despite being nothing further from the truth. He is a good player doing his level best to assist a below average team in their battle for survival - relegation won’t change that.
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