Football betting tips: Monday Night Football
2.5pts Under 3.5 goals at 20/23 (Betfair)
1pt Lucas Paqueta 2+ total shots at 6/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Paqueta to score anytime at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Paqueta to score first at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 12/1
- Under 3.5 goals
- Paqueta 2+ total shots
- Paqueta to score anytime
It's frankly ridiculous what the subconscious dredges up.
Having resolved not to reference magic or anything related to namesake Harry in this preview, reading through Graham Potter's pre-match quotes I couldn't help but draw comparisons with Professor Dumbledore's wise words:
Happiness can be found even in the darkest of times if one only remembers to turn on the light.
While the new West Ham boss isn't quite as eloquent as the Hogwarts' headmaster, he appears similarly philosophical on the eve of his first return to Stamford Bridge as an opposition manager since being sacked after less than seven months in charge.
“I didn't want to lose my job but at the same time I look back now and maybe it's the best thing that happened to me," a reflective Potter explained.
"I just look at it as a learning experience. I've got no bad feelings towards Chelsea and still have lots of good relationships with the people there. I'm just looking forward to the journey I'm on now with West Ham."
Potter, who won 12 of his 31 games in west London, waited almost two years to take his next opportunity 10 miles or so across the city.
Even for as calm a character as the former Brighton manager, to believe this match is no more significant than any other would be naive.
What are the best bets?
Fortunately for Potter and his team, they face a Chelsea side suffering a serious mid-season wobble under Enzo Maresca.
The Blues have won just once in seven Premier League games, worse form than their visitors (W2 D2 L3) with the primary cause a previously reliable defence beginning to leak goals: 11 conceded in six games, with no clean sheets.
Four matches into Potter's tenure, results haven’t yet picked up significantly, but there are clear signs emerging over what his initial focus is.
Having had little to no training time for his opening two games - a 2-1 FA Cup defeat at Aston Villa and 3-2 home league win over Fulham - the subsequent two matches have seen the Hammers’ concede only two non-penalty goals against Crystal Palace and Villa, allowing just 0.85 and 0.52 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) respectively.
With too much uncertainty in the 1X2, backing both managers to revert to defensive solidity, as such opposing the market, provides us with a sizeable 20/23 about UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
Three of Potter’s four games have seen this bet land and 70% of Chelsea’s league matches this season have done so, increasing to 73% at Stamford Bridge.
Paq to attack
Another aspect in our favour is West Ham’s shortage of attacking options, meaning we could see a clogged-up midfield battle should Potter again choose to select either Mohamed Kudus or LUCAS PAQUETA as his centre-forward.
The impact of injuries to Jarrod Bowen, who could return on Monday, Michail Antonio and Niclas Fullkrug on Paqueta’s attacking output has been significant.
Since moving out of the midfield double-pivot into an inside forward, number 10 or false 9 role the Brazilian has had 17 shots in seven matches, only failing to have at least 2+ TOTAL SHOTS once - when he was substituted after 56 minutes against Palace.
Those fixtures have included two trips to Villa and an away match at Manchester City, so strength of opposition shouldn't put us off taking 6/4.
Only three of those 17 attempts have been on target, but all three have seen PAQUETA SCORE ANYTIME.
- CLICK HERE to back Paqueta to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Paqueta to score first with Sky Bet
As West Ham’s current penalty taker (two of his three goals have come from the spot) the 5/1 about him in this market is generous, as is the 16/1 for him TO SCORE FIRST given this is a match that, in my view anyway, may well be low-scoring.
Popping the balloon a little, Paqueta is rated as a slight injury doubt on Monday, but we can only take the value on offer.
What is worthy of consideration, however, is if Bowen returns to the XI he is likely to resume spot-kick duties, so sticking with the shots line only would be a smarter way to go.
Team news
Robert Sanchez's poor form could see Chelsea start goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen instead.
The Blues remain without Mykhailo Mudryk (banned) and injured trio Wesley Fofana, Romeo Lavia and Benoit Badiashile.
West Ham hope to have captain Jarrod Bowen back from injury, while Lucas Paqueta should shake off a groin concern. Konstantinos Mavropanos returns from a ban and is expected to replace Aaron Cresswell in the back three.
Crysencio Summerville, Michail Antonio, Niclas Fullkrug and Jean-Clair Todibo are all out.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson.
West Ham: Areola; Coufal, Kilman, Mavropanos; Wan-Bissaka, Soucek, Alvarez, Emerson; Paqueta, Kudus; Bowen.
Match facts
- Chelsea have won their last two Premier League meetings with West Ham by an aggregate score of 8-0 – they last won three in a row against the Hammers between 2010 and 2011.
- West Ham have won just one of their last 18 Premier League away games against Chelsea (D4 L13), losing the last four in a row since a 1-0 win in November 2019.
- Since Christmas, Chelsea have scored the opening goal in five of their six Premier League games but have only won one of those (D2 L2), with only Spurs (11) dropping more points from winning positions across that time than the Blues (10).
- West Ham have conceded nine Premier League goals in the opening 10 minutes of matches this season, two more than any other side and their most in a single campaign. Chelsea, meanwhile, have scored five goals in the first 10 minutes, with only Brentford scoring more (6).
- Chelsea have lost three of their last six Premier League games (W1 D2), as many as they’d lost in their previous 32 combined (W19 D10 L3). In this timeframe (26 December onwards), the Blues are 15th in the Premier League form table.
- Since Graham Potter’s first Premier League game in charge of West Ham United, only Man City (37) have forced more high turnovers than the Hammers (33). They ranked 10th for this metric under Julen Lopetegui up until his final game on 4 January.
- Chelsea are the only Premier League side yet to give a single minute to a player aged 30 or older this season, with Tosin Adarabioyo their oldest player (27y 118d vs Wolves on 20 January). Their current run of 23 games without a player aged 30+ is the longest run by a team since Fulham went 30 games in the 2020-21 campaign.
- This will be Graham Potter’s first meeting with Chelsea since he left the club in April 2023. Eight former Chelsea managers have taken charge against the Blues at Stamford Bridge after leaving the club in the Premier League and none have won across those 22 games (D8 L14).
- Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson has scored 11 goals in his last 14 Premier League London derby matches, with this total of 11 the most of any player in London derbies across the last two seasons.
- West Ham’s Mohammed Kudus has completed the most dribbles of any player in the Premier League this season (57). He has completed 6+ dribbles in three Premier League games in 2024-25, with only Man City’s Jérémy Doku doing so more often (4).
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (2/1/25)
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