Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals at 9/5 (Betway)
1pt Chelsea to win and under 2.5 goals at 15/4 (Boylesports, Betway)
1pt Morgan Rogers to commit 3+ fouls at 9/2 (bet365)
The standout Christmas fixture has thankfully been given, all things considered, the best TV slot as Chelsea host Aston Villa at Saturday tea time.
These sides have been trading places this month. Chelsea, as they did last season, have suffered a blip just as there were whispers of them being in the title race, winning only once in five Premier League matches.
Villa, meanwhile, have now won a remarkable 16 of their last 18 - and 10 successive - matches in all competitions to replace the Blues as the unlikely challenger to Arsenal and Manchester City.
Enzo Maresca's side looked to have arrested their dip in form by following a 2-0 home victory over Everton with a Carabao Cup quarter-final win at Cardiff, only to fall 2-0 down at Newcastle and require a Reece James-inspired fightback to claim a point.
At a fair bit of odds-on they are to be avoided in the straight 1x2 but I don't feel comfortable opposing them at home.
The only goal Chelsea have conceded across their last four matches at Stamford Bridge came in a 1-1 draw against Arsenal, a game they were reduced to 10 men in after 38 minutes. Wolves, Barcelona (both 3-0) and Everton have all been easily dispatched.
Moreover, Maresca has developed quite the knack of ensuring his team deliver a performance against top opposition, which Villa certainly are based on both current form and their record under Unai Emery over the past couple of seasons.
Since losing his opening game in charge to Manchester City in August 2024, the Italian's only home defeats in all competitions have come against Fulham, Legia Warsaw, Brighton and Sunderland.
I'm happy to back the Blues to end Villa's winning run by taking both CHELSEA TO WIN & UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 15/4 and CHELSEA & UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 9/5, both offering considerably more value than the straight home victory.
Six of Chelsea's seven home wins in all competitions this season have seen three goals or fewer, with half those involving under 2.5 goals.
Another angle I like is to back MORGAN ROGERS TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS.
As well as carrying his team's attack since rediscovering his form, the England international has been heavily involved in all aspects of Villa's play, exemplified by how many fouls he has started making.
From making three fouls across seven appearances for club and country during his quiet spell, Rogers made 19 in eight (2.88 fouls per 90) before failing to catch the referee's attention against Manchester United last time out.
At 9/2 to commit three at Stamford Bridge in a match where he could become a little frustrated, this feels worth a go.
Odds correct at 22:00 GMT (23/12/25)
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