Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (Unibet, William Hill)
1pt Kai Havertz to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 21/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/4
The international break never comes at a good time for anyone, but this last one was especially bad timing for Chelsea and Arsenal.
After a ropey start to the season under Mauricio Pochettino, the Blues had just strung three wins together across Carabao Cup and the Premier League, while the unbeaten Gunners had just gotten the monkey off their backs by beating Manchester City for the first time in 12 league meetings.
Mikel Arteta's side are joint-top of the table after an impressive start, while Chelsea sit 11th as they welcome their London rivals.
The pair's underlying data is nearly neck-and-neck (Chelsea +0.86 xGD per game, Arsenal +0.99), and while that points to the Blues having been unlucky not to have collected more points, it is worth noting that they have had a far easier schedule than the Gunners through eight games, making their numbers all the more impressive.
What are the best bets?
Arsenal, once labelled flaky when playing away from home, are far from that now. The Gunners have won all three away games this season without conceding, while last season they led the league in away wins and away points (W12, D3, L4).
While that had me leaning towards potentially backing them to win this game, especially as Stamford Bridge has not been a happy home for Chelsea this calendar year, losing seven and winning just three of 16 home league games in 2023, at the prices I prefer to take UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
As already touched upon, Arsenal are now an excellent travelling team, and that has come as a result of an improved defensive solidity and extra impetus on keeping teams out when playing as visitors.
Across their last 22 away league games, the Gunners have conceded just 18 goals, with eight of those coming in three of their final five away games of last season against Liverpool, West Ham and Manchester City.
This season they have allowed just 2.00 xGA in three road trips (0.67 per game), and with William Saliba expected to be back for this, they can keep their hosts at arms length.
Mauricio Pochettino's side have also shown a similarly impressive defensive process in the opening salvos of the new season, with only three teams posting a better xGA per game than the Blues (1.11) - one of them being Arsenal.
Their midfield trio of Conor Gallagher, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez are finding some rhythm and beginning to gel, and they can contribute to making life difficult for their visitors in terms of creating chances.
They can also make life difficult for one particular Arsenal midfielder, former Chelsea man KAI HAVERTZ, with the German looking overpriced to PICK UP A CARD against his former team.
Despite his attacking flair, Havertz is a player who has never been shy about getting stuck in. In 21/22 when being deployed as a striker for Chelsea he averaged 1.6 fouls per 90 minutes, last season it was 1.7 and so far this season - when playing in a deeper role for his new club - he's averaged 1.73 fouls per 90.
Pretty consistent then, and given the added spice of a London derby and his former stomping ground, he looks ripe for a caution.
The German has already been dished a yellow three times this league campaign, with two of those coming away from home and the other in the North London derby.
BuildABet @ 16/1
- Arsenal +1 handicap
- 23+ match fouls committed
- Conor Gallagher 2+ fouls committed
- Kai Havertz 2+ fouls committed
- Martin Odegaard 1+ shot on target
Arsenal have shown they have the tools to at the very least avoid defeat at Stamford Bridge, in what should turn into a scrappy game. Arsenal's away games this season have averaged 22.3 fouls, and the case for Havertz picking up a few of his own has been made above.
Conor Gallagher has become a mainstay in Mauricio Pochettino's team, and is averaging 2.0 fouls per game, while Martin Odegaard has tested the keeper regularly this season, averaging 1.3 shots on target per game.
Score prediction: Chelsea 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Team news
Chelsea's injury crisis has seemingly gotten worse over the international break. While Benoit Badiashile is edging closer to a return and could feature this weekend, Romeo Lavia, Trevoh Chalobah, and Carney Chukwuemeka have all suffered setbacks in their recoveries and will not be available this weekend.
Doubts have also arisen regarding captain Reece James, who suffered an injury in training before the break, but his deputy Malo Gusto is back after suspension. Ben Chilwell misses out, as does Axel Disasi. Cole Palmer also picked up a knock on international duty but should be fine for minutes off the bench this weekend.
For Arsenal, there are still doubts surrounding Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Leandro Trossard, though Saka is expected to be fit to start. Jurrien Timber is a long-term absentee, with the Gunners having no fresh injury concerns.
Gabriel Martinelli is back to full-fitness, as is Thomas Partey.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Silva, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Gallagher, Enzo; Sterling, Jackson, Mudryk.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Havertz, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli.
Match facts
- Chelsea have lost five of their last six Premier League games against Arsenal (W1), as many defeats as they'd suffered in their previous 25 against them (W14 D6).
- Arsenal have won each of their last three away league games against Chelsea – they could become the first side to win four in a row against the Blues at Stamford Bridge since Watford between 1981 and 1986.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 15 league London derbies (W11 D4), the third-longest such run in Premier League history after Chelsea (20 between 2004 and 2006) and the Gunners themselves (35 between 2001 and 2005).
- Chelsea have lost their last two league games at Stamford Bridge; only in November 1993 have they ever lost three consecutive Premier League home games, with the third match in that run coming against Arsenal (0-2).
- Kai Havertz – who assisted Arsenal’s winner against Man City last time out – could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match (91 for Chelsea, 8 for Arsenal so far). 27 different players to have previously played for Chelsea in the Premier League have scored against them in the competition, the most against any side in the competition’s history.
Odds correct at 1215 BST (19/10/23)
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