Saturday night brings a big game from London, as Chelsea welcome Manchester United. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at evens (bet365)
We have a fascinating match up on Saturday, with two in-form teams going head-to-head at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea are unbeaten under Graham Potter, seven games in total, winning five of those. In the league, they have won three of four.
Manchester United have lost just one of their last eight league games, at Manchester City, winning six, so both teams are in good form.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Chelsea 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Man Utd 12/5
However, I have growing concerns around Chelsea. I am a huge Potter fan, Graham as well as Harry, but the signs are there that his Blues team are perhaps not as far along in their transformation as results would suggest.
In the Premier League under Potter, Chelsea have averaged just 1.35 xGF per game in attack, which ranks 11th best in the league during that time.
Defensively they have shipped 1.46 xGA per game, which ranks 13th best in the league.
From an expected points (xP) per game perspective, they sit 12th since Potter's appointment.
It is a small sample size of just four league games, but those figures are concerning, even more so given they haven't faced a big team, playing Crystal Palace, Wolves, Aston Villa and Brentford.
Three of those have been away from home, but nonetheless we would expect to see Chelsea be much more dominant on the underlying numbers than they have been.
Creating few chances and allowing few chances is a theme that seems to be following the Blues though, and defensive solidity is a staple of Potter-ball, which is one of the main reasons I'm backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS on Saturday.
Manchester United are proving a difficult team beat this season after a slow start, appearing to find their feet under Erik ten Hag, and come into this on the back of an impressive display against Tottenham.
They themselves have been tight defensively since being blown out by Manchester City, allowing xGA totals of 0.73, 0.94 and 0.84, but consistent chance creation is still a work in progress.
As a team, they haven't breached 2.0 xGF since their opening day defeat to Brighton, and their shot selection of late has to be questioned.
Across their last three matches, United have taken 55 shots equating to 4.41 xGF - meaning an xG per shot of 0.08. That's something that needs rectifying if they are to sustain a top four challenge.
So two teams with decent defensive figures, but also issues creating chances, in a 'six-pointer' style game. That equals a low-scoring contest, so the Under 2.5 Goals gets the nod.
Chelsea v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at evens (bet365)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1745 BST (20/10/22)
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