Chelsea host Juventus as they look to make it ten games unbeaten. Jake Pearson previews the match, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
1.5pts Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ at 17/20 (BetVictor)
Chelsea’s 1-0 defeat away in Turin back in September has really put the cat amongst the pigeons in Group H, Juventus now three points clear of Thomas Tuchel’s side at the head of proceedings, and of course boasting the better head to head advantage.
With four victories from their four matches, Juventus’ Champions League campaign is going far better than their domestic one, the Old Lady currently languishing in eighth position in Serie A.
Massimiliano Allegri’s men have picked up of late, winning each of their last three matches, but an away trip to Stamford Bridge is an extremely tough assignment, one they may struggle to pass.
After a disappointing 1-1 draw with Burnley prior to the international break, Chelsea blew away any cobwebs that might have been present with an incredibly impressive 3-0 victory over Leicester at the weekend.
The Blues are performing at an outstanding level at present, creating chances equating to 2.64 Expected Goals For (xGF) over their last four games, and allowing just 0.42 xGA; effectively, they are very good going forward, and potentially even better defensively.
Four goals conceded across their opening 12 Premier League matches in an astonishing return, and testament to the remarkable work Tuchel has done to turn around what was an extremely leaky Chelsea defence. Clean sheets are now their bread and butter, and another could be incoming at the Bridge.
Despite Serie A being the highest scoring league across Europe’s top five divisions, Juventus haven’t been the highest contributors to that, and in fact, only games involving Torino and Venezia have seen fewer goals than games involving Juve this season; the Old Lady actually sitting in the bottom half of Serie A in terms of goals scored this term, netting just 18 across their 13 matches.
The only goals Chelsea have conceded in this competition came against Allegri’s men, but there was an element of ‘smash-and-grab’ about that victory, Chelsea dominating the possession, the shot count, and the expected goals battle (0.84-1.47).
Statistics aren’t everything, and while correlation does not imply causation, it is difficult to get away from the fact that BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ is the best bet in this fixture.
Only Bayern Munich can match these two for clean sheets in this competition – all three keeping three out of four – while Both Teams To Score has landed in just one of Juve’s Champions League fixtures, and in none of Chelsea’s – Chelsea matches in Europe are averaging a miniscule 1.75 goals per game.
Add in the game state as well, namely that a draw would put Juventus in a reasonably comfortable position in terms of winning the group, and a defence-first approach from the masters of defending looks all the more likely.
BetVictor are still offering 17/20 about this selection, which is probably best backed sooner rather than later considering plenty of other firms have already taken the sheers to the price.
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1510 GMT (22/11/21)
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