Chelsea trail Dortmund 1-0 on aggregate as they head into the second leg at Stamford Bridge. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing a best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (SpreadEx)
1pt No first Dortmund goalscorer at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
This game is the biggest game of Chelsea's season. They sit 10th in the Premier League - 11 points outside the top four - and can't win either domestic cups, so it really is Champions League or bust.
Graham Potter's side find themselves 1-0 down after the first leg, but will be encouraged by their performance in that game, where they did create the better of the chances.
That is something they have done an awful lot of late, but a failing to convert those chances is the reason for their poor form.
Across their last eight Premier League and Champions League games, the Blues have scored just three times from chances equating to 12.6 xGF.
That averages out at 1.58 xGF per game, which is not all that impressive, and as Alex Keble pointed out in his piece last week, the sluggish nature of Chelsea's approach play under Potter means that their attempts usually come in a crowded penalty area, which could be a reason that this Blues team - and Potter's Brighton - consistently underperformed on underlying metrics.
Poor individual finishing is of course still a contributor, and an average process coupled with all of the above means UNDER 2.5 GOALS remains an automatic play when Chelsea take to the field purely based on their own attacking output.
Dortmund are a team who do occasionally give up chances, especially to 'better teams', but Chelsea's ponderous play will likely continue to hold them back and make this a tight game, as Potter aims for a 'controlled' rather than 'emphatic' style.
Another major contributor to the Unders bet is Chelsea's backline, which has been excellent of late.
The Blues, with their possession-based approach, have allowed just 0.95 xGA per game in that same eight game span, and given the missing players for Dortmund, I think NO FIRST DORTMUND GOALSCORER is a tad too big of a price.
This bet is effectively the same as 'Chelsea clean sheet', but with an added bonus of, if Dortmund do score just once and it comes via an own goal, we get paid out as a winner.
The Germans will want to play on the counter attack, like they did in the first leg, only this time they are missing their goalscorer and chief transitional threat Karim Adeyemi. Donyell Malen and Youssoufa Moukoko, Dortmund's other pacey outlets, are also still absent, meaning their attacking threat in a game where Chelsea will dominate possession is expected to be somewhat muted.
Chelsea's set-up under Potter does mean they deal with transitions well, and that should be the case even more in a game where their opponents may struggle to stretch them, so in what should be a tight, low-scoring game, chancing the visitors failing to score appeals.
Chelsea v Dortmund best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (SpreadEx)
- 1pt Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at 17/10 (Boylesports, Coral)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (06/03/23)
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