Chelsea v Crystal Palace tips: Premier League best bets and preview
European champions Chelsea get their Premier League campaign underway on Saturday at 3pm, hosting Crystal Palace. Jake Osgathorpe looks at the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Chelsea v Crystal Palace
1pt Chelsea to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 11/5 (Betway)
It has been said numerous times and it will be said again here: Chelsea improved remarkably under Thomas Tuchel. They won yet more silverware under him, beating Villarreal to win the European Super Cup on Wednesday.
The German has made an instant impact, shoring up a porous defence to make them the best in the division according to data, allowing just 0.68 expected goals against (xGA) per game in his 19 league matches in charge.
In fact, based on expected points (xP) per game, the Blues were the best team in the league after Tuchel’s arrival – averaging 2.10 to Manchester City’s 2.06 – meaning they are legitimate title contenders should they continue in that manner.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Chelsea 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Palace 12/1
However, they again struggled to convert their chances.
Under Tuchel they racked up chances equating to 35.9 expected goals for (xGF) – 1.89 per game – but scored just 25 times – 1.32 per game.
That is a huge issue, and is one of the main reasons the Blues have brought Romelu Lukaku back to the club. The creativity is there, but the conversion hasn’t been. If they start hitting the net at an expected rate, the Blues could take off domestically.
They host Crystal Palace in their opener, and the Eagles are embarking on a new journey under Patrick Vieira following Roy Hodgson’s departure.
Palace have done some exciting business in the summer window, bringing in talented young players, but the most important thing they have done is getting rid of the old deadwood.
There has been a high turnover of players, which can be seen as a negative, but it is exciting to see them attempting to head in a different direction, though I’m not sure the coaching appointment marries up with hope of being more expansive.
In his first season at Nice, his side scored 30 times in 38 games and conceded just 35 goals. It was dull and drab, so Palace may have just appointed the French Hodgson.
That could be a good thing ahead of this game though, as it is unlikely Palace will see much of the football, so the ability to be compact and difficult to break down could be their only hope of returning to Selhurst with anything.
With that being the case, and given we don’t know if Chelsea’s finishers will turn up, backing CHELSEA TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS appeals at 2/1.
I was tempted to go up a goal to Chelsea to win and Under 3.5, which is priced at around the 5/6 mark, but after delving into the numbers, I’ll happily take the risk.
Chelsea’s defensive prowess has already been discussed, so I can’t see Palace troubling them, but at the same time I’m not expecting a comprehensive home win.
13 of Chelsea’s 19 league games under Tuchel saw Under 2.5 Goals, while seven of Chelsea’s 11 league wins under Tuchel also saw Under 2.5 Goals.
They tend to win games by a narrow scoreline without ever looking threatened, such is the approach they take by dominating the ball, so I’ll happily take the lower goal line with a Chelsea win.
Chelsea v Crystal Palace best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Chelsea to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 11/5 (Betway)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (11/08/21)
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