Free football betting tips: Preview of first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final between Chelsea and Arsenal

Chelsea v Arsenal (2000 GMT, Sky Sports Football)

Just one week on from a pulsating 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium, Chelsea and Arsenal meet at Stamford Bridge in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final.

The Blues have home advantage this time around but I don't think they'll be able to make it count.

Arsenal will be out to keep things tight after Sunday's 4-2 defeat at Nottingham Forest of the Sky Bet Championship in the FA Cup and I'm backing Arsene Wenger's side to collect a goalless draw.

This season's first match between these teams was way back in September at Stamford Bridge and ended without a goal. That was a terrific response from the Gunners after a 4-0 defeat at Liverpool in their previous match on the road, a performance which must rank among the worst Wenger has overseen.

Arsenal have responded to six of their seven defeats this season by keeping a clean sheet in the next game and the Frenchman will restore his stars to the starting XI after making nine changes for the defeat at Forest.

Chelsea also made nine changes to their side for Saturday evening's 0-0 FA Cup draw at Norwich, who are in the middle of the Sky Bet Championship table, and the Blues were also involved in a goalless encounter against Everton only two-and-a-half weeks ago.

Antonio Conte will join Wenger in bringing back his first-team regulars and I expect a better defensive showing from both sides after the ease with which chances were created in the final stages of last week's 2-2 draw.

All of the goals in that Emirates Stadium contest were netted in the final 30 minutes and both managers will have reiterated to their players the need to keep things tight throughout this two-legged tie.

There's 12/1 available for no goalscorer and that is the way to go as it covers you in the event of own goals.

I also want to offer myself a little bit of security by taking a small interest in the 77/20 available for under 1.5 goals to be scored, with anything above the 3/1 mark perfectly fair.

Three of Chelsea's last seven home wins have been 1-0 and Conte will be happy enough to keep hold of any kind of advantage for the return game.

Prediction: Chelsea 0-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet's odds: 12/1)

Recommended bets:

1pt no goalscorer in Chelsea v Arsenal at 12/1

0.5pts under 1.5 goals in Chelsea v Arsenal at 77/20

Posted at 1900 GMT on 08/01/18

Opta statistics

• Chelsea have won four of their five League Cup ties against Arsenal, including the semi-final en route to winning the trophy in 1997-98 (4-3 on aggregate).
• Arsenal’s only progression against Chelsea in the competition came in a fourth round win at Highbury in 1976-77.
• The Gunners have won just one of their last nine visits to Stamford Bridge in all competitions (W1 D1 L7), a 5-3 win in the Premier League in October 2011.
• The Blues have progressed from four of their last five League Cup semi-finals (2005, 2007, 2008 and 2015), failing only under Rafael Benitez against Swansea in 2012-13.
• This will be Arsenal’s 15th appearance in the League Cup semi-finals – only Liverpool (17) have played in more.
• However, no side has been knocked out at this stage more than Arsenal (7), while the Gunners have lost five of the seven finals they’ve played when they do get through.
• Chelsea have conceded a 90th minute goal in each of their three EFL Cup ties this season, but have also scored twice in the last minute (vs Everton and Bournemouth).
• Arsene Wenger has reached the League Cup final twice as Arsenal manager (2007 and 2011), but it remains the only domestic trophy he’s not won with the Gunners.

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