Two of Sky Bet League One's big guns meet on Monday night as Charlton Athletic host Portsmouth. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and picks out two best bets.
Football betting tips: League One
1pt Draw at 49/20 (Unibet)
1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 29/10 (Unibet, Bet UK)
It has been 10 long years since Portsmouth played Sky Bet Championship football – and the task of returning to the second tier just seems to get tougher with each passing season.
Pompey have begun the League One season in fine fettle, losing just one of their opening 11 games, but with a host of big-hitters above and around them, promotion is anything but a certainty, sitting fifth before the weekend.
Their failure to get out of the division has been due to a wobble at some point each season – and while “wobble” is a harsh way of describing defeat to Ipswich plus draws with Plymouth and Fleetwood, a gap is nonetheless forming to the top two.
They really need a win at The Valley on Monday night, but that’s no easy task against draw specialists Charlton, who have seen seven of their 13 league matches this season finish level.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Charlton 8/5 | Draw 9/4 | Portsmouth 13/8
It’s rare the draw is overpriced but at just shy of 5/2 with Unibet, I think it is here.
Charlton are unbeaten at home thus far, W3 D3, while Portsmouth have taken 10 points from 15 on their travels, failing to win only in an opening-day draw at Sheffield Wednesday and the aforementioned Ipswich loss.
The bookmakers are struggling to separate the pair, each a best price of 13/8 at time of writing and rather than attempting to justify flipping that coin, the DRAW provides excellent value at 49/20.
If the respective records of both teams are anything to go by, there should be goals in this game and there are plenty of options in the goalscorer markets – too many to narrow down, if truth be told.
Pompey’s seven-goal top scorer Colby Bishop is understandably short-priced, with Huddersfield loanee Josh Koroma, two goals in his first three starts, perhaps best value at 4/1 anytime and 10/1 first goal.
But I’m going to go with collective goals for my second tip, namely OVER 3.5 GOALS in the match.
Charlton’s home games are averaging 3.17 goals per match this season, Portsmouth’s away games an even better 3.2. In their combined 24 matches overall, 10 have featured four goals or more, landing the over 3.5 bet.
Portsmouth have the division’s fourth highest expected goals for (xGF) figure of 1.37 this season, while Charlton’s xGF at home is a whopping, league-leading 1.85.
These numbers do not mean the bet is guaranteed to land of course but what they do mean is that the 29/10 on such an eventuality is huge value, given the goal-laden games each side has enjoyed.
You can get 10/1 generally if you combine both tips - draw and over 3.5 goals - in the 'Match Result and O/U 3.5 goals' markets some firms offer.
Charlton v Portsmouth best bets and score prediction
- Draw at 49/20 (Unibet)
- Over 3.5 Goals at 29/10 (Unibet, Bet UK)
Score prediction: Charlton 2-2 Portsmouth (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1800 BST (13/10/22)
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