xG verdict

Championship xG: Expected goals scorelines for Saturday's matches


We round up Saturday's action from the Sky Bet Championship in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG scoreline along with an Infogol fairness rating.


What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
  • This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.


Blackburn 1-0 QPR

Infogol xG: 0.35-0.12

Fairness rating: 78.51

Jon Dahl Tomasson enjoyed a winning start to his Blackburn reign.

Lewis Travis settled a tight contest with a stunning strike in the 34th minute after Rovers endured a nervy start against another side playing under the guidance of a new head coach in Michael Beale.


Blackpool 1-0 Reading

Infogol xG: 0.46-1.10

Fairness rating: 51.71

Callum Connolly’s crashing volley gave Blackpool a winning start to the new season with a battling win over Reading.

The former Everton defender smashed home after nine minutes to secure victory for Michael Appleton in his first match in charge.


Cardiff 1-0 Norwich

Infogol xG: 0.08-0.27

Fairness rating: 62.01

New-look Cardiff began their campaign with victory in a bad-tempered affair against newly relegated Norwich.

Romaine Sawyers struck the winner four minutes into the second half of a contest that saw both sides reduced to 10 men after the break.


Hull 2-1 Bristol City

Infogol xG: 1.52-1.20

Fairness rating: 86.54

Jean Michael Seri’s deflected goal in injury-time earned Hull victory.

The former Fulham midfielder was given too much space and fortune was on his side as his strike from the edge of the penalty box struck a defender and looped over goalkeeper Dan Bentley.


Luton 0-0 Birmingham

Infogol xG: 1.45-0.66

Fairness rating: 80.66

Luton were held by a dogged Birmingham in their opener at Kenilworth Road.

The hosts came close to breaking the deadlock in the sixth minute when James Bree’s free-kick saw goalkeeper John Ruddy clear with his legs before Jordan Clark lashed the rebound over.


Millwall 2-0 Stoke

Infogol xG: 1.14-0.16

Fairness rating: 85.03

Charlie Cresswell scored twice on his debut as Millwall opened their campaign with a comfortable victory against disappointing Stoke at The Den.

The Lions have long been a team capable of threatening from set-pieces and it was from this means that they claimed both of their goals, with their lead rarely being threatened.


Rotherham 1-1 Swansea

Infogol xG: 1.00-0.70

Fairness rating: 92.17

Harry Darling’s stunning strike earned Swansea a draw but they had goalkeeper Andy Fisher to thank for keeping the point.

The centre-half marked his debut in fine style as he crashed a 25-yard effort into the top corner to cancel out Cheidozie Ogebene’s opener.


Wigan 0-0 Preston

Infogol xG: 1.35-1.42

Fairness rating: 98.21

Wigan picked up a point on their Championship return after being held to a goalless draw by Preston, who had substitute Ched Evans sent off late on.

The Latics, last season’s League One champions, started well and asked several questions of their established second-tier opponents.

Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom

Infogol xG: 1.73-1.53

Fairness rating: 98.21

John Swift was in the perfect place to turn in his first goal for West Brom five minutes after half-time, laid on by another summer recruit, Jed Wallace which cancelled out Middlesbrough’s 10th-minute opener from Isaiah Jones.

It was a much better second half display from West Brom after Boro controlled most of the first half.


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