Football betting tips: EFL
2pts Wrexham draw no bet at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Ben Whiteman to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
Wrexham’s remarkable rise up the divisions stalled last season, ending a run of back-to-back-to-back promotions. But only just.
Phil Parkinson’s side won the National League in 22/23, then finished runners-up in League Two and League One in successive campaigns.
They almost snuck straight into the Championship play-offs but ultimately finished seventh, two points behind Hull. In pole position to make the top six heading into the final day a 2-2 draw with Middlesbrough wasn’t enough.
They’ll be kicking themselves having watched the Tigers - the 7/1 play-off outsiders - go up, too.
Not to worry, there’s always this season and as luck would have it, there’s been a tweak to the play-offs which could favour Wrexham.
As Tom Carnduff explains here, the play-off places have been extended down to eighth place, meaning a third of the division will have a shot at promotion this campaign.
And although the Red Dragons have made a habit of defying the data, outperforming their expected points (xPTS) by +43 across the last three seasons, they’ve fine tuned their squad ahead of the new campaign.
Ryan Reynolds, one half of the Hollywood duo which owns the club, described their summer business as a "kitchen renovation" rather than a full-house rebuild.
They’ve had their annual clear out of players who they deem not up to the level. Most noticeably, Paul Mullin - who was a main character in the first couple of seasons of Wrexham’s Hollywood era - has gone to League Two Rotherham. He’s one of 11 players who’ve moved on.
In terms of imports, they’ve spent just over £17m on three players so far.
Goalkeeper Anthony Patterson joins from Sunderland, he spent the second half of last season on loan at Millwall.
Right back Danny Imray joins from Crystal Palace, previously loaned to Bromley in League Two, Blackpool in League One and West Brom in the Championship.
BEN WHITEMAN has made the switch from Preston to add some more bite in midfield.
Whiteman might not start here but his price TO BE CARDED is worth a tout regardless.
He was on the bench in the Carabao Cup first round defeat at Middlesbrough, although he had only signed two days before.
So, keep your eyes on team news, but given his track record, he should thrive in a Welsh derby if he gets the nod from the off.
Whiteman picked up 10 cautions last season and 12 the season before. His career cards per 90 average of 0.22 suggests a price of 7/2 would be apt, but that average rises to 0.26 in the Championship and 0.32 across the last two seasons.
All things considered, the 10/3 available with bet365 is worth a punt but I’d take the 3/1 available with Coral and Ladbrokes as well and even consider the 5/2 available elsewhere with smaller stakes.
At 11/10, I also think Wrexham are worth a go DRAW NO BET against Cardiff on Monday.
Wrexham picked up points in just under 70% of their away games last season as this bet only lost in seven of those trips, three of which came at sides who finished in the top six. They look set to improve on last season's tally of 71 points so there is no reason to think that kind of form won't continue.
Recently promoted Cardiff return to the Championship with momentum.
Managed by Brian Barry-Murphy, the Bluebirds averaged 62% possession last season and with an XI that had an average age of 24, there could be some teething issues for this young crop of players as they try and implement their possession-based style on the second tier.
Although I expect them to survive this season, at the prices available, I think they are worth opposing.
Odds correct 14:25 BST (14/08/26)
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