A look at the battle to avoid relegation in the Sky Bet Championship
A look at the battle to avoid relegation in the Sky Bet Championship

Sky Bet Championship: A week-by-week look at the battle to avoid the drop


Seven teams are battling to avoid relegation from the Sky Bet Championship this season, with some in significantly worse situations than others.

Ipswich are all but gone in the eyes of many. Paul Lambert's men have been picking up points recently, but the fact they are 13 points from safety with 24 left to play for shows the problem they have.

Bolton, battling off-the-field issues, have done little to inspire on it and are expected to join Ipswich in Sky Bet League One next season.

However, above those two teams, there is a real battle to avoid that third and final spot. Rotherham, Reading, Millwall and Wigan are all within touching distance, while QPR can't rule themselves fully out of it yet.

We've already taken a look at the three-team race for the title in the division - with Norwich, Sheffield United and Leeds all hopeful that they will be lifting the trophy in May.

As stated in that look at the title race, this is a prediction based on what we know with eight games remaining. A lot changes between now and May and teams can hit form, while also finding results hard to come-by despite looking strong at the moment.

There's also the fact that football is sometimes, in the nicest possible way, odd. A team who have struggled for 40 games can suddenly grab victories in their last six as they look to battle the drop - while teams at the top can feel the pressure with the intensity of the chasing pack.

Therefore, the situation could be drastically difference when it comes to opposition as the games tick away. Despite that, based on what we've witnessed in the 38 games so far, we can try and create a judgement on what results we could see.

Here, our Sky Bet EFL man Tom Carnduff gives us his predictions.

Rotherham manager Paul Warne
Rotherham manager Paul Warne

Before we kick things off, a look at how the table currently stands so we have a clear picture of the relegation battle...

Current table

18. QPR - 44pts

19. Wigan - 39pts

20. Millwall - 37pts (-14)

21. Reading - 37pts (-16)

----------------------------------

22. Rotherham - 36pts

23. Bolton - 29pts

24. Ipswich - 24pts

Neil Harris and Marcelo Bielsa
Neil Harris and Marcelo Bielsa

Eight games remaining

  • Ipswich - Hull (H)
  • Bolton - QPR (A)
  • Rotherham - Derby (A)
  • Reading - Preston (H)
  • Millwall - Leeds (A)
  • Wigan - Brentford (H)
  • QPR - Bolton (H)

We have a cliche relegation six-pointer between QPR and Bolton, with the R's expected to get victory in front of their own supporters. Ipswich have lost just one of their seven home games heading into this one, the other six finishing 1-1. However, there's a case for Paul Lambert's side picking up all three points against a Hull side who have lost their last five on the road. Wigan are another team who can grab victory with their strong home form, while it should be defeats for Rotherham, Reading and Millwall.

Table

18. QPR - 47pts

19. Wigan - 42pts

20. Millwall - 37pts

21. Reading - 37pts

----------------------------------

22. Rotherham - 36pts

23. Bolton - 29pts

24. Ipswich - 27pts

Ipswich against Bolton
Ipswich against Bolton

Seven games remaining

  • Ipswich - Bolton (A)
  • Bolton - Ipswich (H)
  • Rotherham - Nottingham Forest (H)
  • Reading - Hull (A)
  • Millwall - West Brom (H)
  • Wigan - Bristol City (A)
  • QPR - Norwich (A)

The bottom two meet as Bolton welcome Ipswich to the University of Bolton Stadium. That's a game that may well end in another frustrating draw for the Tractor Boys, while Rotherham can also gain a point in front of their own supporters against Nottingham Forest. Reading will likely see another defeat against Hull who have a very strong home record while Millwall should also leave empty-handed against a promotion-chasing West Brom side. Away trips to Bristol City and title hopefuls Norwich will see little return for Wigan and QPR.

Table

18. QPR - 47pts

19. Wigan - 42pts

20. Millwall - 37pts (superior goal difference)

21. Reading - 37pts (superior goal difference)

----------------------------------

22. Rotherham - 37pts

23. Bolton - 30pts

24. Ipswich - 28pts

Steve McClaren watches his QPR side in action
Steve McClaren watches his QPR side in action

Six games remaining

  • Ipswich - Brentford (A)
  • Bolton - Middlesbrough (H)
  • Rotherham - Aston Villa (H)
  • Reading - Norwich (A)
  • Millwall - QPR (H)
  • Wigan - Hull (A)
  • QPR - Millwall (A)

Matchday 40 sees a London derby as Millwall take on QPR. Neil Harris' side will look to utilise home advantage here and they are capable of grabbing the three points on offer. For Bolton, promotion hopefuls Middlesbrough can secure three points in their quest for play-offs, which could see them capitalise on Villa's trip to Rotherham. The New York Stadium will be vital to the Millers' chances of survival and they could earn another draw against Dean Smith's men. Reading should see another defeat, this time away at Norwich, while Wigan will also fall victim to Hull's form in front of their own supporters. Another side with a great home record is Brentford, which will put them in a good place against Ipswich.

Table

18. QPR - 47pts

19. Wigan - 42pts

20. Millwall - 40pts

21. Rotherham - 38pts

----------------------------------

22. Reading - 37pts

23. Bolton - 30pts

24. Ipswich - 28pts

Rotherham celebrate after scoring against Stoke
Rotherham celebrate after scoring against Stoke

Five games remaining

  • Ipswich - Birmingham (H)
  • Bolton - Derby (A)
  • Rotherham - Stoke (A)
  • Reading - Brentford (H)
  • Millwall - Sheffield United (A)
  • Wigan - Norwich (H)
  • QPR - Swansea (H)

We could see some positional changes here, particularly at the bottom with Ipswich capable of capitalising on Birmingham's recent fortunes. A trip to Derby should end with no return for Bolton which would see them drop to the foot of the table. Stoke have done little to impress under two separate managers and that means that Rotherham can grab another crucial point. So too could Reading, with Brentford's away form not matching the efforts in front of their own fans. There's two title contenders for Millwall and Wigan, but they are both capable of stealing points against Norwich and Sheffield United. Millwall's aerial presence could be problematic for the Blades back line while Norwich could suffer to the Latics' strong showing at the DW. QPR can grab a point against Swansea.

Table

18. QPR - 48pts

19. Wigan - 43pts

20. Millwall - 41pts

21. Rotherham - 39pts

----------------------------------

22. Reading - 38pts

23. Ipswich - 31pts

24. Bolton - 30pts

Reece James celebrates after scoring against Leeds
Reece James celebrates after scoring against Leeds

Four games remaining

  • Ipswich - Preston (A)
  • Bolton - Aston Villa (H)
  • Rotherham - Swansea (A)
  • Reading - Bristol City (A)
  • Millwall - Brentford (H)
  • Wigan - Leeds (A)
  • QPR - Blackburn (H)

Ipswich's decent momentum will be halted away at play-off hopefuls Preston. Aston Villa will be looking to keep pace with Preston and that should mean victory in their trip to Bolton, while Rotherham will also leave empty-handed away at Swansea. There are likely to be defeats for Reading and Wigan as well, while Millwall can capitalise with victory over Brentford. QPR are equipped to grab victory against a Blackburn side who have struggled away from home throughout the campaign.

Table

18. QPR - 51pts

19. Millwall - 44pts

20. Wigan - 43pts

21. Rotherham - 39pts

----------------------------------

22. Reading - 38pts

23. Ipswich - 31pts

24. Bolton - 30pts

Reading boss Jose Gomes
Reading boss Jose Gomes

Three games remaining

  • Ipswich - Swansea (H)
  • Bolton - Blackburn (A)
  • Rotherham - Birmingham (H)
  • Reading - West Brom (H)
  • Millwall - Aston Villa (A)
  • Wigan - Preston (H)
  • QPR - Derby (A)

Another potentially high scoring round with points expected for four teams. Ipswich come up against a Swansea side who have been hit-and-miss throughout the campaign, particularly away from home, while Rotherham can beat a Birmingham side who should be firmly out of the race for the top-six. Bolton could surprise with a point against Blackburn while Wigan can also snatch a draw against Preston. Reading see West Brom come, who will be battling for a better play-off position while Millwall's trip to Villa will see little return. The same can be said for QPR, who go to Derby. Ipswich and Bolton would see their relegation status confirmed following the conclusion of this round.

Table

18. QPR - 51pts

19. Millwall - 44pts

20. Wigan - 44pts

21. Rotherham - 42pts

----------------------------------

22. Reading - 38pts

23. Ipswich - 32pts

24. Bolton - 31pts

Millwall celebrate Aiden O'Brien's goal
Millwall play their game in-hand at this point

Two games remaining

  • Ipswich - Sheffield United (A)
  • Bolton - Brentford (H)
  • Rotherham - West Brom (A)
  • Reading - Middlesbrough (A)
  • Millwall - Swansea (H)
  • Wigan - Birmingham (A)
  • QPR - Nottingham Forest (H)
  • Millwall - Bristol City (H) - GAME IN HAND

Sheffield United could well be going for the title at this point which would see a fairly straightforward victory over Ipswich. Bolton could see another point as they host Brentford, while Millwall have the ability to beat a Stoke side who have been far from impressive this season. QPR could face a Nottingham Forest side who have little to play for and home advantage may give them the edge in that contest. Rotherham, Reading and Wigan all leave empty-handed in their away trips to teams higher up in the table. Millwall could also pick up a point against Bristol City in their game-in hand from their run in the FA Cup. If the results panned out as expected, Reading would be relegated with a game remaining in the season.

Table

18. QPR - 54pts

19. Millwall - 48pts

20. Wigan - 44pts

21. Rotherham - 42pts

----------------------------------

22. Reading - 38pts

23. Ipswich - 32pts

24. Bolton - 32pts

Semi Ajayi scores for Rotherham
Semi Ajayi scores for Rotherham

Final game

  • Ipswich - Leeds (H)
  • Bolton - Nottingham Forest (A)
  • Rotherham - Middlesbrough (H)
  • Reading - Birmingham (H)
  • Millwall - Wigan (A)
  • Wigan - Millwall (H)
  • QPR - Sheffield Wednesday (A)

With the promotion race set to go down to the wire, Ipswich are likely to see another defeat with Leeds potentially needing three points to reach the Premier League. Bolton won't overtake them though as they go to Nottingham Forest, while Reading can end the season on a high despite moving down to League One as they beat Birmingham on final day. For Rotherham, they'll be hopeful of a point against Middlesbrough while a home game against Millwall puts Wigan in a great position to finish with victory. QPR see another defeat against Sheffield Wednesday, who could still be battling for a spot in the play-offs at this point.

Final table

18. QPR - 54pts

19. Millwall - 48pts

20. Wigan - 47pts

21. Rotherham - 43pts

----------------------------------

22. Reading - 41pts

23. Ipswich - 32pts

24. Bolton - 32pts

QPR's Darnell Furlong celebrates
QPR's Darnell Furlong celebrates

What if history repeats itself?

What if we see a repeat of results in the reverse fixtures? The points return being the exact same as it has been against teams in these final eight games.

The team to significantly benefit would be Reading. Not only would they be safe but they'd finish four points above the drop zone in 19th. They saw three victories and a draw in their first meetings against the teams left to play, a return of ten points from a possible 24.

That would mean Rotherham would see an instant return to Sky Bet League One. Rather than finishing two points above Reading in 21st, they'd be a point behind Millwall in that final relegation spot.

The Millers saw just two victories over the sides left to play, bringing the same return as Ipswich and Millwall. The Tractor Boys would finish bottom, although still on the 32 points predicted above.

For Bolton, the four points they earned in prior games would be enough to see them avoid last place, although it'd only be a point more than expected. It would also see them relegated by a margin of four wins.

QPR, who are outsiders for relegation in all of this anyway, would get 13 points from the 24 on offer. That would put Steve McClaren's men on 57 points, which might be enough to see them finish around 15th in the standings.

For Wigan, they'd be two points worse off but, most importantly, the Latics would still be safe and preserve their spot in their first season back in the Championship.

Millwall would also end up worse off as expected by a total of three points. However, they would finish above Wigan on goal difference. Harris' men being six goals better off, although it wouldn't make a huge amount of difference.

Table

18. QPR - 57pts

19. Reading - 47pts

20. Millwall - 45pts

21. Wigan - 45pts

----------------------------------

22. Rotherham - 44pts

23. Bolton - 33pts

24. Ipswich - 32pts

Bolton boss Phil Parkinson
Bolton boss Phil Parkinson

What are the odds?

There aren't odds available on Ipswich to go down with Sky Bet, such is the current situation they find themselves in. Bolton are an incredibly short price to join Town in dropping down a division while Rotherham are just a shade of odds-on for an instant return to England's third tier.

Sky Bet Championship relegation (odds via Sky Bet)

  • Bolton - 1/250
  • Rotherham - 10/11
  • Reading - 15/8
  • Millwall - 7/1
  • Wigan - 7/1
  • QPR - 150/1

Head here to bet


Odds correct at 1620 GMT (19/03/19)

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