Jake Pearson takes a look at the results from gameweek two of the Champions League and assesses exactly what that means for the outright betting in the competition.
PSG into favs as City drift
Lionel Messi grabbed the headlines on Tuesday evening as he scored his side’s second goal to condemn Manchester City to a 2-0 defeat in the Parc des Princes.
The general 7/2 favourites to win the entire competition before the game, City have now drifted out to 4/1 second-favourites, with Mauricio Pochettino’s men cut into the new 7/2 favourites.
More than just the outright though, the result has had a profound effect on the group betting, PSG a general 6/4-shot to top Group A before kick-off are now as short as 8/13 in places to finished ahead of Pep Guardiola’s men, who can now be backed at as big as 5/4; though the two are still first and second favourites to reach the final.
Champions League winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- PSG - 7/2
- Manchester City - 4/1
- Bayern Munich - 9/2
- Chelsea, Liverpool - 8/1
- Manchester United - 11/1
Odds correct at 08:55 30/9/21
Man United cut after late Ronaldo drama
It is unlikely that Messi’s first goal in a PSG shirt was celebrated too vociferously in the Cristiano Ronaldo household, and the Portuguese forward continued the pair’s prolonged game of one-upmanship with a 95th-minute winner against Villarreal on Wednesday evening, completing a come-from-behind victory for the Red Devils.
The bookmakers reacted by nibbling the price a little, with United now 12/1 from 14s to win the Champions League, but it did have a more profound effect on the group betting, the Red Devils now odds-on to win Group F, having been odds-against in placed prior to kick-off.
Mixed results for English clubs
Liverpool travelled to Porto on Tuesday and produced a sublime performance to demolish the Portuguese side, winning 5-1 and seeing their price for the competition cut into 8/1 as a result.
Meanwhile, a Federico Chiesa goal, scored 11 seconds into the second-half, was enough for Juventus to claim all three points against a blunt-looking Chelsea on Wednesday, a result which has seen the Blues’ price for retaining their European crown nudged out to 8/1, with Juventus cut from 7/4 into 4/5 to finish top of Group H – Chelsea can be backed at 11/8.
Spanish Karmada as Real and Barca lose
A general 14/1 shot to win a record 14th Champions League at the beginning of the season, Real Madrid are now out to 25/1 to win the competition after a huge upset against Champions League newcomers Sheriff Tiraspol, the Moldovan’s snatching victory in the last minute with a rocket of a goal from Sebastien Thill.
Despite drifting in the group betting however, due to Inter Milan’s stalemate with Shakhtar Donesk earlier in the evening, Real remain 7/2-on to win Group D, though Sheriff, who have six points from two matches, can still be backed at 9/4 to qualify.
• (0.20 xG) Barcelona 0-3 Bayern Munich (2.77 xG)
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) September 29, 2021
• (1.98 xG) Benfica 3-0 Barcelona (1.53 xG)
❌ Their worst start to a #UCL campaign EVER.
🧐 Pressure grows on Ronald Koeman as his side face an uphill battle to qualify for the knockout stages.#BenficaBarca pic.twitter.com/PyJ0M7RUA6
Barcelona, on the following evening, followed suit by succumbing 3-0 to Benfica.
Not only does that mean the Catalans are now 66/1 to win Europe’s premier competition, it also means they are third-favourites to qualify from Group E, with Benfica now into 4/7 to finish in the top two, while the Portuguese side's price to win the entire thing was slashed from 500/1 to 150/1.
Ajax’s price halved as Haller delivers again
Ajax saw their price to win the Champions League cut from 80/1 to 40/1 after making it two wins from two matches in this season’s competition, beating Besiktas 2-0.
The Dutch side are now as short as 1/50 to finish in the top two in Group C, having initially been priced up at 5/6 at the beginning of the tournament.
A word on Sebastien Haller as well as the former West Ham striker now has five goals in this season’s competition and has been backed into the 5/1 second-favourite to finish as the tournament’s top scorer.
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