Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Atletico Madrid +0.5 Asian handicap at 49/50 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 13/2
- Atletico Madrid goal handicap (+1.0)
- Aurelien Tchouameni 2+ fouls
- Robin Le Normand 2+ fouls
Real Madrid host city rivals Atletico in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 clash on Tuesday.
Only two points separate the clubs in La Liga, Real Madrid slipped to third at the weekend after defeat at Real Betis while Atleti beat Athletic Club to leapfrog them into second.
A disappointing group stage for Carlo Ancelotti’s side meant a meeting with Manchester City in the play-offs. Los Blancos emphatically swept the Premier League champions aside 6-3 on aggregate.
Kylian Mbappe netted four of his side's goals, including a hat-trick in the home leg, and after a tricky start in Spain, the Frenchman is showing his class. Mbappe now has 27 goals for the season, 14 coming since the turn of the year but won’t get the run of the Bernabeu with Atletico in town; so to speak.
Margins are usually tight in a Madrid derby and given the two-legged dynamic, expect little between the sides on Tuesday. That’s not to say the visitors can’t cause some issues. They have a talisman of their own: Julian Alvarez.
The frontman netted the winner in his side's last outing taking him to domestic double figures for the season and he has six goals on the continent.
Alvarez netted from the spot when the sides last squared-off, Atleti’s only shot on target that evening, and this match could follow a similar pattern.
What are the best bets?
Prince of the Dark Arts Diego Simeone has made a habit of getting results against Real Madrid.
The last three head-to-heads have ended 1-1 and each of the last four have ended as draws in 90 minutes. Atleti are unbeaten in the last eight against Los Blancos (90mins) and have only lost one of the last 10 (90 mins).
No doubt Simeone will set his side out to frustrate and stay in the tie which is why backing the visitors +0.5 ASIAN HANDICAP appeals. This is literally the same bet as WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE but at a slightly bigger price.
In general, head-to-head records are flimsy statistics to lean on but the pattern highlighted is too big to ignore, Simeone simply loves getting one over Don Carlo.
Then factor in the derby aspect, the magnitude of the game, it being across two legs and the suspension of Jude Bellingham and it all adds up to a sensible bet.
Team news
Real Madrid will be without the suspended Bellingham.
Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal and Dani Ceballos are also unavailable but Ancelotti should have utility man Federico Valverde back at his disposal.
Valverde is expected to replace Lucas Vazquez at right-back.
Atletico Madrid are without Cesar Azpilicueta and Koke but are otherwise at full strength.
Julian Alvarez is expected to partner Antoine Griezmann in attack replacing Alexander Sorloth.
Conor Gallagher and Marcos Llorente both impressed from the bench in the win over Athletic Bilbao at the weekend, the latter setting up the winner, but the pair may both have to settle for places on the bench.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Diaz, Vinicius; Mbappe
Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Gimenez, Galan; Llorente, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez
Match facts
- This will be the 10th meeting between Real and Atlético Madrid in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League; the joint-most between teams from the same nation, along with Chelsea versus Liverpool (10).
- Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid have faced each other in the knockout stages of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League in five previous seasons (1958-59, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 – incl. finals), with Los Blancos progressing/winning on all five occasions.
- Across all European competitions, Atlético Madrid have won their last two games against Real Madrid (2-1 in the semi-final second leg in 2016-17 and 4-2 in the UEFA Super Cup in 2018). Prior to those, Atlético had only won one of their first eight matches against their city rivals in Europe (D2 L5).
- This will be the 12th season in which Real Madrid have faced a fellow Spanish opponent in the knockout stages of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, while they’ve only been eliminated on two previous occasions – both times by Barcelona (last 16 in 1960-61 and semi-finals in 2010-11).
- Real Madrid have only lost one of their last 17 matches in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (W11 D5), and are unbeaten in nine (W5 D4) since suffering the only defeat in this run (0-4 away to Manchester City in the 2022-23 semi-finals).
- Atlético Madrid have lost each of their last three away games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (0-1 v Manchester City, 0-1 v Internazionale and 2-4 v Borussia Dortmund); their longest losing run away from home in the knockout rounds of the European Cup/Champions League since 1959-1971 (5), which included a defeat at Real Madrid (1-2 in April 1959).
- Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé has been directly involved in 27 goals in 32 appearances in UEFA Champions League knockout stages matches (24 goals, three assists). He netted a hat-trick last time out in the competition (v Manchester City), which was his second in the knockout stages of the competition – only Cristiano Ronaldo (4) has ever netted more.
- Julián Alvarez has scored six goals in eight appearances in the UEFA Champions League this season, with only two players ever netting more in their first European Cup/Champions League campaign as an Atlético Madrid player: Diego Costa in 2013-14 (8) and Vavá in 1958-59 (8).
- Vinícius Júnior has been directly involved in nine goals in eight UEFA Champions League appearances this season (seven goals, two assists). He’ll be looking to reach 10+ goal involvements for the fourth straight edition (2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 previously), while Cristiano Ronaldo is the only other player to have done so in as many as four seasons overall for Real Madrid (8).
- Only Joshua Kimmich (20) has broken the opposition’s defensive line with a pass more often than Rodrigo De Paul (19) in the UEFA Champions League this season. The Argentinean leads all Atlético Madrid players for passes completed (374), line-breaking passes (65) and progressive carries (63) in the competition this term.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (03/03/25)
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