Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Liverpool to win and under 4.5 goals at 19/20 (General)
0.5pt Liverpool to win and under 2.5 goals at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alexander Sorloth to commit 2+ fouls at 13/5 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
1pt Sorloth to be shown a card at 7/1 (bet365)
Mohammed Salah’s 95th-minute penalty at Burnley on Sunday, following Hannibal Mejbri’s inexcusable handball, both maintained Liverpool’s 100% start to the Premier League season and continued the style in which they have secured each of those wins.
That goal came five minutes earlier than the winner scored by teenager Rio Ngumoha at Newcastle; at least Federico Chiesa (88) and Dominik Szoboszlai (83) had the good manners to score within normal time against Bournemouth and Arsenal respectively.
It has not been vintage stuff from the Reds, but eking out 12 points despite such average performances should have their rivals even more concerned, as should the way in which Arne Slot has adapted his team to quickly solve some glaring defensive issues.
After conceding twice in each of their opening three fixtures - starting with a Community Shield defeat by Crystal Palace - Slot stiffened up his midfield by using Szoboszlai as a nominal right-back to provide his team with greater stability and control.
This tactic actually began a game earlier and had an immediate effect in the first half at Newcastle, as under relentless early pressure Liverpool conceded no chances. With the Magpies 2-0 down, reduced to 10 men and inspired in a way only jilted lovers can be, with the depth of anti-Alexander Isak feeling at fever pitch, the match became uniquely unstructured and allowed Newcastle back into the contest.
Slot wasn't put off and in the subsequent two matches stuck with his new set-up to secure clean sheets against Arsenal and Burnley. In three fixtures using this formation Liverpool have given up just 1.62 xGA. In the two matches prior they allowed 3.77.
Even before this tweak, enthralling 4-2 win over Bournemouth aside, Liverpool have looked stodgy in attack. They now start their Champions League campaign against a team with a reputation for making games as ugly as possible and being defensively resolute.
No prizes for guessing the angles here.
Three of Atletico Madrid’s four La Liga games this season (W1 D2 L1) have involved UNDER 2.5 GOALS which at 13/10 could be worth siding with on its own, but instead I prefer combining it with a LIVERPOOL WIN at 10/3.
Liverpool’s 4-0 thrashing of Bayer Leverkusen in last season’s league phase was the only one of five Champions League matches at Anfield that saw more than three goals, with three of the others also going under 2.5. All had UNDER 4.5 GOALS which alongside a LIVERPOOL WIN gives a sizeable 19/20.
In case you're wondering, the bet in the middle just isn't quite value in my book.
It's particularly worth siding with a home win as not only had Atleti struggled so far this term up until their 2-0 weekend win over Villarreal, they face an ever-deepening injury crisis with Julian Alvarez the latest player to be ruled out. He joins Johnny Cardoso, Thiago Almada, Jose Maria Gimenez and Alex Baena on the sidelines.
ALEXANDER SORLOTH could now lead the line in his absence.
The Norwegian started both matches before the international break and replaced the injured Alvarez at half-time against the Yellow Submarine.
At a standout 7/1 he should be backed TO BE A SHOWN A CARD.
He has been shown one already this term, and has committed seven fouls in just 211 minutes of league action, also making it worth taking the 13/5 about him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (16/09/25)
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