Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Nico Paz to score or assist at 19/20 (General)
0.5pts Over 33.5 match shots at 5/2 (bet365)
Manchester United head to Como in the Champions League’s early kick-off on Wednesday looking to end a run of six games without a win (D3 L3).
Michael Carrick’s side beat Sabah 4-0 in their first European game of the season but have not won since.
The 10 men of Manchester City beat them at Old Trafford, Brighton came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in the Carabao Cup and Atletico Madrid comfortably beat them 2-0 last Tuesday.
Based on the underlying data, it’s not like United have been unfortunate either, losing the xG battle in each of those fixtures.
That said, they started well at Elland Road on Sunday and were deservedly ahead at the interval but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to back them in their current guise against Como.
Interestingly, over that sample, half of the Red Devils games have seen a red card but the card markets are probably worth avoiding too due to the referee appointment.
Sven Jablonski has only given 13 yellows and no reds in seven appearances in all competitions this season and averaged 2.33 cards per game in this competition.
Wednesday’s hosts Como are a place above United in the Champions League table (12th), the pair are level on points (3) and goal difference (+2) with the Italian side scoring but also conceding two more goals than United.
Cesc Fabregas’ side are propped up by Jamestown Analytics, Brighton owner Tony Bloom's data organisation.
In Serie A they have only lost once (W4 D2), they sit five points off the title pace and remain unbeaten at home in all competitions (W2 D1).
They beat RB Leipzig 4-1 on matchday one but were beaten 3-2 at Feyenoord in their last European outing.
With a combined total of 10 goals scored across their two games, that's an area worth a look on Wednesday but with both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score suitably priced, I’ll pivot to the TO SCORE OR ASSIST market.
NICO PAZ has had a hand in six goals across his nine appearances this season. Across the last three seasons in Serie A, he’s scored and assisted 36 goals with a career goal involvement per 90 average of 0.53.
At the prices available, Paz is worth backing to get amongst the goals on Wednesday.
It is also worth noting Como top the charts for shots per game in Serie A this season (21.7) and they’ve averaged 24 per game at home.
In two Champions League games, they have had a total of 25 efforts with each match having a combined total of 28 and 24.
In the Premier League, Manchester United top the shots chart (19.7) also averaging the joint-most on the road (19.3).
In this competition, they have had 30 across two games with the match totals being 32 and 20.
Given both clubs high shot output domestically, I think it is worth having a swing at OVER 33.5 TOTAL SHOTS at 5/2 with bet365.
Odds correct at 12:25 BST (20/10/26)
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