Champions League odds and betting tips: Who to back in the quarter-finals
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- 'To qualify odds' are in brackets next to team names and via Sky Bet
Champions League betting tips: Quarter-finals
3pts Barcelona to qualify vs PSG at 21/20 (bet365, Boylesports)
*Already advised
2pts Real Madrid to qualify vs Man City at 21/10 (Boylesports)
We were a few minutes away from a decent profit in the round of 16, but Atletico Madrid's late equaliser and eventual penalty shoot-out win over Inter Milan denied us that.
The good news is that we are at the quarter-final stage of the Champions League, and the draw has thrown up some stellar looking ties as the competition reaches the elite stage.
Atletico Madrid (4/6) vs Dortmund (11/10)
- First leg - Wednesday, April 10
- Second leg - Thursday, April 16
The least intriguing of the four quarter-finals in terms of narrative, and perhaps quality.
Atletico Madrid, currently fourth in La Liga, taking on Dortmund, currently fourth in the Bundesliga. Domestically, both are in with a battle just to finish in the Champions League places next season.
Home games are obviously important in two-legged ties, but are perhaps even more so for Atletico Madrid, who's home and away form has been in stark contrast this season. At the Wanda, Diego Simeone's men have won 18 and lost two of their 22 matches in all competitions. Away from home they won just seven and lost nine of 22.
Dortmund have hit a decent patch of form after their winter break, winning nine of their 13 and losing just once, so will fancy their chances of causing what would be an upset here.
It has to be said though, that these two teams, while household names across Europe, are not near the standard of yesteryear. NO BET for me here.
Verdict - Atletico Madrid to qualify
PSG (8/11) vs Barcelona (Evs)
- First leg - Wednesday, April 10
- Second leg - Thursday, April 16
BARCELONA TO QUALIFY looks overpriced to me. I'd make them favourites to advance.
PSG, while top of Ligue 1, are, well, playing in Ligue 1. For context, Brest are currently second, and they were 50/1 just to finish in the top six this season. It's not the strongest of leagues to say the least.
Their xG process therefore makes for even worst reading. At home they rank only sixth in terms of xGF per game and third for xGA per game, while away from home they lead the league for xGF per game, but, get this; they rank third worst in an average Ligue 1 for away xGA per game...
That carried into their European games too, with Les Parisiens losing 4-1 at Newcastle, 2-1 at Milan and drawing 1-1 in Dortmund before beating a struggling Real Sociedad 2-1 in the last round when the Spaniards were chasing the tie.
The second leg in Spain could be interesting then, and perhaps a great opportunity to overturn a deficit should Barcelona need to, though their away form and process this season is another reason I want to get them onside.
Xavi's side have lost just two of 22 away games in all competitions this season, both in the Champions League group stage when already assured of qualifying. In La Liga they are unbeaten on the road and boast the best xGF per game (1.96) and xGA per game (0.94).
While still missing some key players in midfield (Pedri, Gavi and Frenkie de Jong), Barca have some stars back fit and have unearthed another incredible young talent in centre-back Pau Cubarsi, who at 17-years-old, made making his first team debut for Spain in the last international break despite playing just 11 matches for Barca.
He'll face a huge test up against Kylian Mbappe over two legs, but given the way Barca defend as a team, they can keep former boss Luis Enrique's French champions at bay and get the better of them over two legs.
Verdict - Barcelona to qualify
Arsenal (8/11) vs Bayern Munich (Evs)
- First leg - Tuesday, April 9
- Second leg - Wednesday, April 17
When this tie was announced not many would have thought Arsenal would be going off as short as 8/13 in places to advance, but that's what Bayern Munich's recent struggles have done to the market.
The Bavarians are having a miserable season in the Bundesliga, resigned to losing their title-winning streak of 11 straight to a Bayer Leverkusen side who have never before won the top flight title.
That could be seen as a positive by some, as it means Thomas Tuchel's paper thin squad can be rested in league games ahead of a full tilt at the Champions League, with Bayern having been majorly hampered by injury for most of the season.
They are welcoming back nearly everyone to full fitness now though - barring goalkeeper Manuel Neuer - and their starting XI on paper is a very good match for Arsenal's, the question is; can we trust them to perform to a high level here when they so often haven't under Tuchel?
I'm not sure of the answer, and don't want to put money on it even if they have weapons to hurt the Arsenal, notably Harry Kane, who has haunted the Gunners for nearly a decade.
Arsenal themselves were hardly impressive against Porto, needing penalties to advance, and their schedule is tough in comparison to Bayern's simply because they are in a seriously competitive title race - they can't miss a beat domestically.
Mikel Arteta's side must host top-four chasing Aston Villa in between the two UCL tussles, so for that reason I can't get on board with them to advance at a best price of 20/23 here, meaning it's a NO BET.
Verdict - Arsenal to qualify
Real Madrid (13/8) vs Manchester City (4/9)
- First leg - Tuesday, April 9
- Second leg - Wednesday, April 17
These two are making a habit of meeting at the latter stage of the competition, playing in the semi-finals of both 21/22 and 22/23 campaigns. On both occasions, the winner of the tie lifted 'old big ears'.
Last season was a bit of a walkover for City, who after drawing the first leg 1-1 in Madrid, absolutely destroyed Real 4-0 at the Etihad. We can expect this two-legged tie to be much closer, with City arguably not as good as last season and Madrid quite clearly better, dominating La Liga.
Carlo Ancelotti's men are an incredibly tough nut to crack, unbeaten in 35 matches (in 90 minutes) while winning 27 in all competitions, and the same can be said for City, who are unbeaten in 23 (won 19). Something's got to give here.
At the prices, I'm very happy to roll the dice with REAL MADRID TO QUALIFY here.
Los Blancos have an exceptionally deep squad full of quality that is now nearly fully healthy, and not only does that mean they can handle the mounting fixtures, but it also means they won't get weaker when Ancelotti makes changes in these ties.
Plus, with the variety of players the Italian has at his disposal, Madrid can set up in numerous different ways which could stump Pep Guardiola.
They should be fresher too for the first leg in Madrid too, having played just once since the international break. City will have played three times in that period before heading to Spain, including against two taxing games against sides in the Premier League's top four.
Verdict - Real Madrid to qualify
Odds correct 1610 BST (05/04/24)
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