Napoli: Fancied to edge past Man City

Free Champions League betting tips including Napoli v Man City, Tottenham v Real Madrid & Liverpool v Maribor

19:41 · WED November 01, 2017

Ben Coley fancies Man City's winning spree to be ended in Naples while Tottenham can keep things tight as they play host to Real Madrid.

Tottenham v Real Madrid (1945 GMT, BT Sport 2)

Tottenham's continued progression was underlined in thicker ink a fortnight ago, as they earned a deserved draw in the Bernabeu and could so easily have snatched a famous victory late on.

Granted, they rode their luck at times and Real were dominant in possession, but on balance 1-1 seemed a fair reflection and a more than satisfactory result, one which puts Spurs on the brink of advancing to the last 16 and holding onto the possibility of doing so as winners of Group H.

Achieving the latter goal may depend entirely on winning this game, which in turn depends if not entirely then at least significantly on the fitness of Harry Kane. He was sorely missed as Spurs' title hopes were dented by Manchester United and while back in training on Tuesday, there's some doubt as to whether the best out-and-out striker in the world will be able to show it.

There's an argument that Mauricio Pochettino should allow Kane some time and keep him on the bench here, but it's unlikely. Topping the group does look like it'll prove a big advantage and when Real Madrid come to town, it's hard to justify leaving out your best player. Even if that player will be expected to feature for England against Germany in 10 days and then face Arsenal back on club duty.

Harry Kane in full flow

Without Kane, the case for Real at a drifting 5/4 would appear fairly straightforward, even allowing for their shock weekend defeat in LaLiga. They'd previously won each and every away game this season, including at Dortmund, whereas Spurs have - or at least had - struggled at Wembley, until thumping Liverpool in a result which was meant to represent their next step up the ladder.

With Kane, Spurs might be considered value - he really is that significant. As such, calling the match result without knowing whether he will feature in any capacity makes little appeal; wagering on the outcome makes none.

However, even with Kane fit and firing the price available about under 2.5 goals would be worth taking.

Of course, both these sides are capable of making such a bet appear very silly. Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo are the joint-top scorers in the Champions League, after all; Real average more than two goals per game away, Spurs are at least starting to turn possession into goals at home.

On the other hand, Kane might well be absent and Ronaldo has hardly been at his untouchable best this season. The two goals scored in the reverse were not ordinary - one a penalty, the other an own goal - and more than half the Spurs games played at Wembley this season have featured under 2.5 goals.

Spurs simply don't concede many away from the odd domestic cup aberration and Real will respect their opponents here. It could be tight and fairly cagey and throw in the prospect of both Kane and Ronaldo being below-best, 6/4 looks too big.

The other option is to back one or both teams to fail to score, which is bigger still at almost 2/1. This only removes 1-1 from our options but that might just be the most likely outcome here so, with the reverse firmly in mind, we'll take a slightly more cautious approach.

Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Real Madrid

Liverpool v Maribor (1945 GMT, BT Sport/ESPN)

Seldom do you see odds of 80/1 on offer about one of three possible outcomes in a Champions League match market. I'd venture that it has never happened concerning Liverpool, who have for a while been notorious domestically for failing when presented with what appears to be a straightforward task.

Yet, anyone who saw them romp to a 7-0 victory in Slovenia, for which they were full value, will quickly move past any lingering temptation to back the upsets of all upsets. Liverpool are justifiably 1/16 and will surely win.

To their credit, Maribor have responded to that thumping manfully, winning 1-0 twice, whereas Liverpool followed it with an insipid display against Tottenham. They weren't much better at the weekend, either, even if their class did ultimately tell in a regulation 3-0 victory over Huddersfield.

Assessing games like these is not easy. It's a mismatch, and all will depend on fine margins: does the final ball find its intended target, does that target find the corner, and so on. It is possible that Liverpool score early and again rack up the goals, just as it is possible that the visitors find a way to frustrate them. Weighing up the probability of either is close to impossible, although Maribor's delayed arrival on Merseyside can hardly help.

Še vedno na domačih tleh. V pričakovanju nadomestnega ✈️ v Liverpool.
Still on home ground. Awaiting for an another ✈️ to Liverpool.#UCL
— NK Maribor (@nkmaribor) October 31, 2017

One thing seems certain: Jurgen Klopp will make full use of his squad. Liverpool are sixth in the Premier League and at some risk of losing touch with the top four, making Sunday's trip to West Ham extremely important. Their last London adventure went spectacularly wrong and they can't afford a repeat. At the back they have defensive issues which guarantees a reshuffle and it's likely we see one up-front, too.

Perhaps that need to focus on Sunday will ensure that they come out firing and put this game to bed, but more likely to me appears the prospect of a laboured effort. The atmosphere will not be electric this time and there's a chance that the starting XI lacks cohesion, all of which makes 6/1 about a goalless first-half somewhat tempting.

Then again, Maribor's last trip to England saw them lose 6-0 to Chelsea, the goals split equally between first half and second. And that's very much how I things here. Finding a bet on this game is a fool's errand; I won't be getting involved.

Prediction: Liverpool 4-0 Maribor

Napoli v Manchester City (1945 GMT, BT Sport 3)

Watching City this season has been a real pleasure. They've been absolutely electrifying, Kevin De Bruyne is the best player in the Premier League, and they will win the division by a distance.

There are signs that they might fire their way to European success too, and that was very much the policy when they played out a thrilling 2-1 victory over Napoli in the reverse, the visitors more than playing their part, missing a penalty and several chances to level up late in the day having found themselves 2-0 down early.

That's one of just two defeats for Napoli this season, the other also coming in the Champions League which means that defeat here could just about confirm their exit. How keen they'll be for a Europa League campaign is hard to say, although they'd be among the favourites for that trophy should they deign to take it seriously.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Should they win here, Napoli will fancy their chances of sneaking through to the last 16 and only Inter - second to them in Serie A - have escaped with a draw from the intimidating atmosphere of Stadio San Paolo. It's little wonder that for once we can back City at 6/4.

Take out the EFL Cup, and Pep Guardiola's side have won their last 11 games. Their victims include Chelsea and Liverpool, while they've scored four, five, six and seven, and on that evidence they're a fair price.

However, the job is just about done when it comes to winning the group and Napoli are not their main rivals in that quest. Plus, they face Arsenal on Sunday and, whatever we might think about Arsenal, that does mean a genuine test of their title credentials.

With Vincent Kompany still sidelined and West Brom having caused them some issues on Saturday, I suspect the visitors are vulnerable here and it's a question of working out how best to side with Napoli.

Dries Mertens scores for Napoli

Backing them at 4/7 to avoid defeat might seem the safest option, but opposing City with an odds-on chance carries great risks and I've settled on a small bet on Napoli to win the game and keep their hopes of qualifying alive for now.

They warmed up with an impressive victory at the weekend, Dries Mertens again catching the eye, and might just be playing City at a good time. Given that there appears to be little between these sides anyway, timing plus home advantage tips the scales in favour of the underdogs.

Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Manchester City