Carabao Cup tips: Outright best bets and preview for 2023/24 season
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup outright
2pts e.w. Liverpool to win the Carabao Cup at 8/1 (Betway - 1/2 odds 1,2)
1pt e.w. Brighton to win the Carabao Cup at 20/1 (General - 1/2 odds 1,2)
Last season, Tom Carnduff nailed this competition, backing winners Manchester United at a price of 16/1, an incredible feat given I think this is the toughest competition to assess.
Motivation, squad rotation and schedule pile up are three reasons to be wary of when attempting to predict the winner of the Carabao Cup, which is why I'll be keeping to small stakes this season.
So far this season, where two rounds of the competition have already been played, we have seen three Premier League teams knocked out; Sheffield United beaten at home by Lincoln, Burnley edging an all Prem affair against Nottingham Forest, and somewhat surprisingly, Tottenham losing at Fulham.
I would have been tempted to side with Spurs had they still been in the competition at the time of writing this preview, given their obvious improvement and lack of European football, but it seems the 'Spursy' gene remains in situe for the time being.
Oppose City
Understandably, Manchester City are short-priced favourites to win the season's first piece of silverware, available at a best price of 9/2, but they face a potentially tricky away game in round three at Newcastle, while being in the midst of an injury and suspension crisis, with all of Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri, Mateo Kovacic, Bernardo Silva and John Stones absent.
Carabao Cup 23/24 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 7/2
- Liverpool - 6/1
- Manchester United - 7/1
- Chelsea - 8/1
- Arsenal - 9/1
- Newcastle - 12/1
- Aston Villa, West Ham - 16/1
- Brighton, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Wolves - 20/1
Odds correct at 2020 (24/09/23)
I think we are best to swerve the favourites, especially given the tricky third round draw on the road, even if they do have a top squad to choose from.
Erik ten Hag's Manchester United side begin their defence of the Carabao Cup with a home tie - shock! - against Crystal Palace on Tuesday and are priced as 8/1 joint-second favourites to retain their title.
The reason I say 'shock' when stating United are drawn at home, is because the Red Devils have now been drawn at Old Trafford in their last 11 domestic cup matches (excluding two-legged semi-finals), with this third round home game against Palace in fact record equaling on that front.
If they continue to get home draws, they could be a huge threat in this competition again, but surely that run can't continue... right?
Liking the look of Liverpool
Like City, United have major injury concerns heading into the third round, with 10 players out, which is enough to have me swerving the reigning champs at the same price as LIVERPOOL.
The 21/22 winners look in good shape to challenge on all fronts this season, with a deep squad capable of maneuvering the early stages of this competition along with other commitments.
Their record in this competition may put people off given they have only advanced past the fourth round in two of the last six seasons, but most of that was due to the strength of opponent they have come up against, and the lack of squad depth early in the Klopp reign.
I'm only going to judge them on the final four campaigns, when the Reds got it all clicking on and off the pitch, and in those four cracks at this competition they were knocked out in the quarter final against Aston Villa - a game where they had to literally play their youth team due to Club World Cup clashes in scheduling - eliminated on penalties by Arsenal the following campaign, winners in 21/22 and then beaten by Manchester City at the Etihad last season in the first game back after the World Cup.
Therefore I'm willing to forgive a poor record on paper and trust the squad depth now at Anfield, which includes an excellent 'second string' front line and a solid looking midfield.
They host Leicester in the third round, with their home record so ridiculously good that it would be a major shock if they failed to advance, and with the fourth round games to be sandwiched between a home game against Nottingham Forest and away game at Luton, I can see them managing to cope with that schedule.
As with a couple of years ago, the closer to the final Liverpool got, the more first teamers took the field, and when that happens, they are more than a match for anyone.
Arsenal were tempting at around the same price, but they face a tough looking trip to Brentford in the third round, and that is a tie where I could see the Gunners rotating but the Bees fielding a strong side as one has title aspirations and the other has a free crack at a cup run.
Back brilliant Brighton
Newcastle take on Manchester City so can't be touched at this stage, and while West Ham and Aston Villa did appeal at 18/1, it's BRIGHTON I'm going to make my second fancy at 20/1 - with the Seagulls 10/1 in places.
West Ham will likely lack the depth and quality to go deep in this competition, with the Hammers likely coming unstuck when facing a big side, while Aston Villa's manager Unai Emery is a European cup man, rather than domestic, so I can see him ditching this competition at some stage in some way.
That leaves Brighton of the teams in and around that price, and while the Seagulls have an away trip to Chelsea in the third round, a game that would've be seen as tough a few years ago, I expect them to advance.
I'm a firm believer that Roberto De Zerbi has one of the deepest squads in the league, where man for man the drop off from starting XI to next best isn't as big as other sides.
Yes they have to contend with European football as well as league games, but I do think they have the squad to cope, with De Zerbi's rotation to work in their favour over the course of the campaign.
In last season's competition they went to the Emirates in the third round and won 3-1, fielding a strong side, before getting knocked out on penalties by Charlton in a game they again fielded a strong side and utterly dominated in every facet of the match.
At 20/1, the same price as Fulham and Crystal Palace, they are way too big. I make them a better team than Manchester United and Newcastle, so I did expect to see them between 10s and 12s across the board, but 20s are available in multiple places which I think is worth the third round match-up risk.
After all, this is a team who were a penalty shoot-out away from an FA Cup final last season, highlighting that they have what it takes to do damage in knockout contests, while it is also worth mentioning their ridiculous record against the big boys.
Across their last 22 matches against the 'big six and Newcastle', Brighton have won 13 times, a staggering return.
Tough to find a big-priced fancy
Beyond the Seagulls, it then becomes really hard to find a lively outsider in the betting. Of all the teams priced 50/1 and above, Bournemouth were one team I was looking at given they host a Stoke team bang out of form in the third round, but their performances have been patchy at best under Adoni Iraola so far this season.
After that it was Ipswich, available at 150/1, who could be a live runner should they take this competition seriously. We have been heaping praise on the Tractor Boys on the This Week's Acca Podcast, with Kieran McKenna doing an incredible job there.
‘Ipswich are a winning machine! They have won 19 of their last 22 league games’
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) September 22, 2023
- @JAKEOZZ on Kieran McKenna’s impressive side#ITFC pic.twitter.com/c3aKkvjMNw
They have won 20 of their last 23 league games, so are a winning machine. My only doubts are the third round draw - they host a Wolves team desperate for something positive so could field a strong side - and their promotion aspirations.
So, ultimately, I'm happy taking two from the top in what is a very awkward competition to predict.
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