Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
2.5pts Arsenal to win in 90 minutes at 6/5 (Betfred)
1pt Kai Havertz to score in 90 minutes at 13/5 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Arsenal to win
- Kai Havertz to score
- Kai Havertz to commit 2+ fouls
- Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls
- Thomas Partey 3+ tackles
- Bruno Guimaraes 3+ tackles
All in 90 minutes
If Arsenal were hoping to lull Newcastle into a false sense of security in an effort to overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit they aren’t going about it particularly discreetly.
That defeat four weeks ago remains the Gunners’ solitary loss in 21 fixtures; to be wholly accurate that run does include a penalty shootout exit to Manchester United in the FA Cup.
A 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City on Sunday was a fourth straight win for Mikel Arteta’s team, with 12 goals scored and just two conceded on the way.
Newcastle may hold a healthy lead at the halfway stage of this Carabao Cup semi-final, but this tie is far from over.
Harsh as it may be on Eddie Howe's men, Liverpool and Tottenham will be hoping they hold on.
What are the best bets?
The opening leg came at a curious time for both sides, with Arsenal in the midst of a tricky run of fixtures across the Premier League, both domestic cups and the Champions League.
Newcastle had won their previous six matches, and having secured victory at the Emirates would go on to win their next two as well.
That nine-game streak came to an abrupt end at home to Bournemouth, who ran riot to win 4-1. Respite came away at Southampton but the Magpies were forced to come from behind to win. Fulham then fought back themselves to leave St James’ as 2-1 winners on Saturday.
For ARSENAL to be a healthy bit of odds-against TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES is strange given not only the gap in quality and contrasting form of the teams, but the fact Newcastle would be very happy indeed were they to lose by a single goal in a contest their opponents must win.
I wouldn't be at all shocked to see the Gunners turn this tie around and book a place at Wembley, but at the prices the 90 minute bet makes most sense rather than taking on the additional unpredictability of possible extra time or even penalties.
No need to cry for Kai
Another price that looks on the large side is KAI HAVERTZ TO SCORE ANYTIME, perhaps a reflection of the narrative being pushed in an increasingly irksome manner by pundits and interviewers alike.
Unperturbed by facts and instead giving far too much weight to the Arsenal forward missing a penalty in the FA Cup shootout against his beloved Manchester United, Gary Neville’s reaction initially to Havertz' first-half miss and later his second-half goal on Sunday strongly suggested he had ended a prolonged goal drought.
Kai Havertz finishes off a fine counter attack! 🔴 pic.twitter.com/I1aLZUMoqx
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) February 2, 2025
The line of post-match questioning directed at the German and Martin Odegaard by Patrick Davison continued to pedal this lazy analysis.
It was Havertz' third goal in five games and 15th of the season in all competitions (all in separate matches) from an expected goals (xG) total of 14.15. He doesn’t take penalties, making it all the more impressive.
Over the past 12 months he has only once gone more than three games without scoring, and even that was a four-match spell in April of last year. During that time he's scored 30 goals in 64 appearances for Arsenal and Germany.
Take him at an overpriced 13/5 to end his three-day drought on Wednesday; expect plenty of pre-match focus on the header he missed in the first leg, though.
Team news
Newcastle striker Callum Wilson could recover from injury in time to make the bench, but Harvey Barnes and Jamaal Lascelles are out.
Sven Botman has been nursed back to fitness and is expected to start after being rested at the weekend.
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta must decide whether to stick with in-form teenager Myles Lewis-Skelly or bring in Riccardo Calafiori at left-back. Ethan Nwaneri will hope his impact off the bench against Manchester City has forced him into the starting XI.
Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus all remain sidelined.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle: Dubravka; Livramento, Botman, Schar, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Murphy, Isak, Gordon.
Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Partey, Odegaard; Trossard, Havertz, Martinelli.
Match facts
- Newcastle are aiming to reach the League Cup final for the third time, progressing from both of their semi-final ties in 1975-76 and 2022-23. They’ve won both of their previous semi-final home legs.
- Before this season, there were 31 cases of a team losing the first leg of a League Cup semi-final at home, with Arsenal losing 2-0 against Newcastle last month. Only two of the previous 31 have progressed to the final, with the Gunners the last to do so against Tottenham in 1986-87.
- Newcastle have won four of their last seven meetings with Arsenal in all competitions (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 45 against the Gunners. They’ve never beaten Arsenal in three different matches in a single campaign before.
- Before this season, there have been 32 instances of a side losing the first leg of a League Cup semi-final by a margin of two or more goals (as Arsenal did against Newcastle this term). Only one of those have progressed to the final, with Aston Villa overturning a 3-1 first leg deficit against Tranmere in 1993-94.
- Newcastle have won their last seven home games in the League Cup, keeping five clean sheets and conceding just two goals in that run.
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last 10 away games in the League Cup (W5 D4). They’ve kept eight clean sheets in that run, but have conceded at least three goals in the other two (5-5 v Liverpool, 1-3 v West Ham).
- Arsenal lost the first leg against Newcastle 2-0 last month despite having 23 shots and posting an Expected Goals total of 3.2. They also lost 1-0 at St James’ Park in the Premier League back in November. Only against three sides have Arsenal failed to score in three different games in a single season in the 21st century (Liverpool in 2021-22, Chelsea in 2013-14 and Man Utd in 2004-05).
- Alexander Isak has scored in both meetings with Arsenal in all competitions this season, with both the being opening (and ultimately, winning) goal of the game. No Newcastle player has ever scored in three different games against the Gunners in a single campaign.
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (4/2/25)
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