Football betting tips: Carabao Cup final
2pt Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals at 13/8 (Sky Bet, Betway)
2pt Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 (Betfred, Betfair)
1pt Under 1.5 goals at 19/5 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt No Goalscorer at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt Mohamed Salah to be shown a card at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
All in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 37/1
- Liverpool to win
- Under 2.5 goals
- Mo Salah card
All in 90 minutes
Eddie Howe and his Newcastle players will have been rubbing their hands together on Tuesday night as Liverpool and PSG took lumps out of each other at Anfield in an enthralling 120 minutes of Champions League football.
Having already lost Trent Alexander-Arnold to injury and Ibrahima Konate with what appeared to be cramp, the Reds were knocked out on penalties, meaning there would be no elation to help suppress the extra fatigue.
With that round-of-16 exit comes extra pressure, too.
As fantastic as Arne Slot's maiden campaign has been, with their march towards the Premier League title now an inevitability, it's hard to shake the feeling that defeat on Sunday would leave things a little empty.
Perhaps unsurprisingly then, the money has come in for Newcastle this week. From a general 5/1 to win in 90 minutes they're now 15/4.
But the Magpies are not without both their own pressures and their own problems.
It is 56 years since Newcastle last lifted a major trophy, beating Hungarian side Ujpest over two legs in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup final. It was 1955 when they last won a domestic cup final.
They have since lost three FA Cup and two League Cup finals, most recently to Manchester United in 2023.
Key trio Anthony Gordon, Sven Botman and Lewis Hall are all missing on Sunday; far more significant to them than Alexander-Arnold's absence is to Liverpool.
What are the best bets?
Liverpool were 1/2 with Newcastle 9/2 when they met at Anfield in the top flight only three weeks ago. The visitors were outclassed.
In what turned out to be a thrilling 3-3 draw at St James' in December, both Newcastle and the draw were priced at 3/1 with Liverpool 3/4 for a win they were only denied in stoppage time when a glaring Caoimhin Kelleher error allowed Fabian Schar to head into an unguarded net.
As they will be on Sunday, the Reds were without both Alexander-Arnold and Conor Bradley.
With Konate also injured, Arne Slot surprisingly chose to play Jarell Quansah at right-back and Joe Gomez in the middle; the perfect dress rehearsal as it turns out.
Liverpool look the value
With LIVERPOOL stronger than they were that day, and Newcastle significantly weaker, backing them in one way or other is advised given the prices available.
For some, 4/6 will be enough to get such a strong team onside, but instead we're taking it alongside UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 13/8.
Low-scoring finals the norm
Newcastle showed signs of being back somewhere near their resolute best in winning a drab game at West Ham on Monday.
Whether they set up with a similar formation, move Joelinton to the left of the front three or play a back five as they did in the second leg of their semi-final against Arsenal, it feels highly likely Howe's aim will be to patiently frustrate but spring into life when the opportunity is there.
The last six Carabao Cup finals have involved three goals or fewer, with five of those going UNDER 2.5 GOALS, four involving UNDER 1.5 and half ending goalless after 90 minutes.
- CLICK HERE to back Under 2.5 goals with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Under 1.5 goals with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back No Goalscorer with Sky Bet
Backing those two unders lines at 5/4 and 19/5 is advised, as is taking NO GOALSCORER at an enormous 14/1, a selection that still pays out if an own goal is scored in the game.
Centre-stage for Salah in some way
MOHAMED SALAH was in tears on Tuesday night, with it possible he has played his final European game for the club.
He, Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk are all out of contract at the end of the season, with none seemingly any closer to new deals.
Should Salah leave he will do so after perhaps his best campaign, already registering an incredible 56 goal involvements (32 goals, 24 assists) this term.
With emotions running high on what could be his farewell Wembley appearance, backing him TO BE SHOWN A CARD is worth chancing at 10/1.
The Egyptian is by some way the biggest-priced player to be booked, understandable given how rarely he is.
But the circumstances are to our advantage, with Salah's cards usually coming in celebration after scoring in a big game or from the penalty spot, or when frustration gets the better of him against an obdurate opponent, all of which are in play here.
Team news
Liverpool are without Alexander-Arnold after he injured his ankle against PSG on Tuesday, meaning Quansah is likely to start.
Konate should be ok after limping off with what appeared to be cramp.
Newcastle are without injured trio Hall, Botman and Jamaal Lascelles as well the suspended Gordon.
Harvey Barnes is most likely to start on the left wing, but Howe could choose to move Joelinton there instead and play an extra central midfielder, or start with a back five.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Kelleher; Quansah, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Diaz.
Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn, Livramento; Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Isak, Barnes.
Match facts
- This is Newcastle’s third appearance in the League Cup final, losing the other two in 1976 (vs Manchester City) and 2023 (vs Manchester United).
- Liverpool are participating in their 15th League Cup final, five more than any other side, while they’ve won the trophy 10 times, two more than anyone else.
- This is only the third meeting between Newcastle United and Liverpool in the League Cup – the Magpies won 1-0 at Anfield in the 1995-96 fourth round, before the Reds won 2-0 at St. James’ Park in the 1997-98 quarter-final.
- Liverpool and Newcastle have faced each other in a domestic cup final once before, with the Reds winning 3-0 in the 1974 FA Cup final. It’ll be the 20th fixture to be played in the final of both the FA and League Cup.
- Newcastle are winless in their last 17 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D5 L12 – all in the Premier League) since a 2-0 home win under Steve McClaren in December 2015. Only against Manchester United from 2002 to 2011 have the Magpies ever gone longer without a victory over any opponent in their history (19 games).
- Newcastle’s last major domestic trophy win was the 1955 FA Cup, beating Manchester City 3-1 at Wembley. Since then, they’ve lost five major domestic cup finals (2x League Cup, 3x FA Cup), with only Chelsea ever having a longer run (3x League Cup, 3x FA Cup since 2019).
- Liverpool have won 18 domestic English cup trophies (10 League Cup, 8 FA Cup) and could equal Manchester United’s haul of 19 if they are victorious in this match, with United winning 13 FA Cups and six League Cups.
- Newcastle won each of their first five appearances at Wembley Stadium, all in FA Cup finals between 1924 and 1955. They’ve since lost their last nine games, the longest losing run at the ground by any club side.
- Liverpool have scored 14 goals in five League Cup matches this season, last netting more in a season in 2000-01 (20). It’s the most goals scored in a Reds manager’s first five games in the competition since scoring 20 in their first five under Gérard Houllier across the 1999-00/2000-01 seasons (excl. joint games with Roy Evans).
- On the last four occasions the holders of the League Cup have reached the final, they have lifted the trophy – Man Utd in 2009-10 and Man City in 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21. Liverpool are the first side to reach the final in consecutive seasons under a different manager (Jürgen Klopp in 2024, Arne Slot in 2025) since Spurs in 2008 (Juande Ramos) and 2009 (Harry Redknapp).
- Eddie Howe has won 12 of his 16 League Cup matches with Newcastle United (75%), the best win ratio of any manager to take charge of more than one game in the competition for the Magpies. Indeed, the only Newcastle manager with more wins in the League Cup is Kevin Keegan (13 in 21 games).
- Newcastle boss Eddie Howe could become the first English manager to win a major trophy with a Premier League side since Harry Redknapp won the 2008 FA Cup with Portsmouth. The last Englishman to win the League Cup was Steve McClaren with Middlesbrough in 2004.
- This will be Arne Slot’s fourth final as a manager, with all three previous games ending 1-0 when he was Feyenoord boss – he lost to Roma in the 2022 Conference League final and against PSV in the 2023-24 Johan Cruyff Shield but did win 1-0 against N.E.C in last season’s Dutch KNVB Cup final.
- Since making his League Cup debut in September 2023, Cody Gakpo has scored nine goals in 11 appearances in the competition, five more than any other player. His five goals for Liverpool in 2024-25 are the most by a Reds player in a single campaign since Robbie Fowler scored six in 2000-01, with Fowler netting his sixth that campaign in the final against Birmingham.
- Mohamed Salah has been involved in four goals in his last five League Cup appearances (3 goals, 1 assist). However, the Egyptian has just one goal in seven appearances for Liverpool at Wembley, having a lower shot conversion rate there (4%, 1 goal from 27 shots) than any other venue he’s had 15+ shots for Liverpool.
- Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 18 goals in 16 appearances against Newcastle for Liverpool in all competitions (10 goals, 8 assists). Only against Manchester United (22) and Manchester City (21) has he been involved in more for the Reds.
- Newcastle’s Alexander Isak has had a hand in four goals across his five appearances against Liverpool (3 goals, 1 assist – all in the Premier League), scoring and assisting in his last game against the Reds in December 2024 at St James’ Park. All three of his goals have either put Newcastle 1-0 up (2) or drawn them level (1).
Odds correct at 1520 GMT (14/3/25)
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