Carabao Cup final: How Manchester United's vertical threat can hurt Newcastle
Manchester United take on a Newcastle side contesting their first final at the new Wembley in Sunday's Carabao Cup showdown. Alex Keble breaks down the battle.
Their players won’t share in the supporters’ anxious memories of those back-to-back FA Cup final defeats in the 1990s, but they will be shaking a little more than their opponents before kick-off.
The stark contrast in psychological readiness - between the upstarts feeling the desperation from a starved Geordie crowd and the easy composure of stalwarts with bigger fish to fry but keen to kick-start the Erik ten Hag era - could have big ramifications for the tactical battle at Wembley.
Much rests on how nerves affect the first 20 minutes. Get past the opening, and Newcastle can feel their way into a contest full of intriguing tactical match-ups.
Rashford-led transitions can copy Liverpool template
Newcastle were overwhelmed by Liverpool’s aggressive forward intent last weekend and it seems likely Ten Hag, studying the game, will decide to adopt a similar ploy from the outset to take advantage of his team’s psychological edge.
The presence of Loris Karius in goal only strengthens the argument that Man Utd should hit them hard.
After laying the groundwork with more individualistic and measured football in his first half-season, Ten Hag has shown more of his Ajaxian tactical principles in 2023 by moving towards purposeful and direct possession football.
This is characterised by a desire to take advantage of turnovers – when the team who just lost the ball is out of their defensive shape – with fast vertical play filtered chiefly through the runs of Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho.
Newcastle will deploy a relatively high line, as usual, and depend upon their ability to squeeze the middle third to keep United at arms’ length, yet at least for the opening 20 minutes this could prove very challenging.
Rashford’s movement is lethal, and potentially being without their first-choice central midfielders to block off the passing lanes could lead to an aggressively direct approach from the favourites which could obliterate Newcastle just as Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez did last weekend.
Saint-Maximin’s positioning crucial to Fernandes’ new role
Should Newcastle survive that opening spell of pressure there will still be a major problem trying to stop Rashford, who has six goals in his last five games in all competitions.
Howe’s tactical model is also focused chiefly on transitions, with his ultra-compressed 4-3-3 tending to crowd out the central column of the pitch and – pressing hard once opponents enter the middle third – giving Newcastle defensive security (15 goals conceded in 23 league games) while remaining in a relatively advanced position on the field.
That usually works, but a new position for Bruno Fernandes and the return of Allan Saint-Maximin throws a spanner in the works.
Saint-Maximin has struggled to get into the team because of his relative lack of work rate, emphasising that Howe prioritises tireless running over quality, yet the Frenchman has found his way back onto the left wing lately.
He won’t track back all the time, and with left-sided central midfielder Joe Willock facing a late fitness test Newcastle are, it seems, unusually weak in that left-centre space – which just happens to be where Fernandes is excelling.
Moved out to the right wing, Fernandes is drifting infield to pop up in the right half-space and create chances for Rashford, using his unfamiliar positioning to confound opposition midfields while opening up the angle for a right-footed through ball.
Saint-Maximin will leave the midfield light in Fernandes’s area, plus Elliot Anderson – who looked out of his depth against Leicester City – may have to start in place of Willock. It is potentially the game’s most serious mismatch.
Casemiro boost against narrow Newcastle attacks
Casemiro’s return from suspension could not come quickly enough. Over the last two weekends Fred and Marcel Sabitzer have struggled as a pair, looking static and easily surrounded when in possession and hopelessly open to being bypassed on the counter.
However, with Casemiro dropping deep to dictate the tempo Man Utd should overcome the potential stumbling block of Howe’s stubborn organisation.
But of even greater significance is his defensive awareness and capacity to break up play, which will be needed to deal with the unusual narrowness of Howe’s attacking structure.
Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron will make darting diagonal runs to support Alexander Isak centrally after the ball is won back, which puts Casemiro under significant pressure alone at the base; Fred and Sabitzer couldn’t handle the speed of Leicester’s narrow counters last weekend, so Fred will likely again be a passenger when the opposition breaks.
Newcastle’s transitions haven’t been particularly effective throughout February but it is no coincidence that this winless run coincides with Bruno Guimaraes’ suspension.
Back at the base of midfield to play delicate passes through the lines and find the feet of those inverted wingers, Guimaraes could be the difference. It certainly would not be a surprise if the winner of the EFL Cup final was decided by one of the Brazilian number sixes.
Either Man Utd can make a very quick start that allows Ten Hag’s vertical possession football to dominate a nervous Newcastle or, if the game settles, Fernandes can take advantage of extra space while Howe’s side wait for moments to overcrowd the returning Casemiro.
Taking a wider lens, the intangible factor of confidence under pressure is likely to be more important than the tactical battle-plans – which puts Manchester United firmly in the driving seat.
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