The last thing Nottingham Forest need is for people to overreact to a single bad performance and a result entirely at odds with the pattern of their season.
But it’s hard not to see the 1-0 defeat to Everton as an omen.
A complete absence of attacking invention, an uncharacteristic mistake from Murillo that cost them the game, and a tired-looking performance that contained “no positives” according to Nuno Espirito Santo adds up to the kind of 90 minutes we worried we might see as the finish line approaches.
It’s true that Forest hadn’t lost at the City Ground since November and that Everton are tactically the most difficult team they could face, considering David Moyes' sides rarely give up counter-attacks.
But it’s also true that Forest have won just ten points from their last eight Premier League matches. The league table since Valentine’s Day has them in 14th. The gap to Aston Villa in seventh is now a nerve-jangling three points.
Supporters always feared this moment; feared that Forest’s reliance on a small group and a simplified tactical strategy would eventually see opponents work them out as fatigue took hold and pressure mounted. The Everton defeat, and a few others before it, suggests their fears are coming true.
The statistics certainly back that up. Comparing their last eight games to the first 24 of the Premier League season – when they’ve dropped from 1.96 points-per-game to 1.25 points-per-game - Forest’s attacks have slowed significantly, with everything from ‘fast breaks’ to ‘touches in the opposition box’ going down.
Defensively, too, Forest are conceding more chances and making fewer defensive actions.
What stands out most from the above is that Forest are making twice as many errors leading to a shot (11 in the first 24 games, 8 in the last 8), have seen their number of ‘fast breaks’ drop by a third, and have created more than 50% fewer ‘Big Chances’ per game.
A mixture of exhaustion and opponents cottoning on is most likely behind those numbers, although we should caveat a small sample size by acknowledging Forest have played Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Newcastle United in that run. Half of those games, then, have been against the current top seven.
Here is where we find encouragement. Forest have come through a tough spell of games and now, prior to their final-day match against Chelsea, exclusively play clubs in the bottom half of the table.
But that only returns us to the Everton game and a brand new problem.
Moyes’s side were the first bottom-half club to beat Forest in the Premier League this season but their pragmatic, fast-break-sapping football is likely to be emulated by upcoming opponents Brentford, West Ham, Crystal Palace and Leicester City.
Before then, a trip to Tottenham Hotspur presents a chance to sit back and play on the counter-attack against a wide-open Ange Postecoglou team recovering from Thursday night football.
Forest simply have to take it, not just for the points but to reassert their authority and recover some belief in their methods. Anything less and the bottom really could fall out.
Nuno, somewhat ominously, has already hinted as much.
“We cannot get away from the fact it is a decisive moment of the season,” he said after the Everton defeat.
“We were not comfortable and the fans also saw the boys were struggling. We are in this position and we want to try to give it a go. But nobody is going to give us anything.”
Well, Dr. Tottenham might, but there’s no getting away from it: Forest are entering the defining period of the campaign in poor form, slipping up just as Man City, Villa, and Newcastle begin to surge.
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