Paris St Germain finally confirmed the signing of Lionel Messi on a two-year contract, and the bookmakers reacted instantly, drastically cutting the price on the French side winning this season’s Champions League.
Initially priced up at as big as 12/1 to win Europe’s premier club competition, PSG are now the 3/1 favourites with Sky Bet, with other firms going as short as 11/4.
On August 5, when Barcelona released a statement confirming that Messi would not play for the Catalonian club in the upcoming season, PSG’s price for Champions League glory started to shorten - immediately slashed into 9/2.
However, ongoing talks with the Parisians this week means those odds are long gone, with most bookmakers now giving Messi’s new club a 25% chance of winning the competition for the first time in their history.
Champions League winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- PSG - 3/1
- Manchester City - 7/2
- Bayern Munich - 8/1
- Liverpool - 9/1
- Chelsea - 10/1
Odds correct at 2140 BST (10/08/21)
Can Messi finally win PSG their most coveted prize?
After coming up short in the round of 16 in three consecutive seasons, PSG finally made it to the Champions League final in 2019/20, but found Bayern Munich too strong, losing 1-0 to a Kingsley Coman goal.
Last season the Parisians were beaten by Manchester City in the semi-finals, losing 4-1 on aggregate, but PSG’s owners will be hoping that Messi can finally deliver what they crave most.
Messi already has four Champions League winners' medals to his name, his latest coming in 2014/15, when he and Neymar made up two thirds of one of the most potent attacking trios in modern football history.
The other third of the trio was Luis Suarez, a fear-inspiring proposition indeed, but perhaps this season at PSG Messi will form part of the most frightening front three in recent memory.
Is PSG’s front three the best Messi has ever played in?
It's October 2004, and a 17-year-old Lionel Messi enters the pitch as a substitute against Espanyol to make his competitive debut for Barcelona. To his left: Henrik Larsson. To Larsson's left: Ronaldinho. Samuel Eto’o has already left the field.
The Messi-Eto'o-Ronaldinho triumvirate would be the first in a string of Barca front threes where the Argentine wizard was the key component.
Messi, David Villa and Pedro scored a combined total of 100 goals in 2010/11 to help Barcelona win La Liga, the Spanish Super Cup and Champions League, while the trio of Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez - whose 364 goals in 450 matches for the club fired them to two La Liga titles, three Copa del Rey wins, a Champions League and a Club World Cup - will certainly take some beating.
But Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe will certainly give them a run for their money.
Despite PSG finishing second to Lille in Ligue 1 last term, Mbappe still finished as the top scorer in France, netting 27 goals in 31 matches. The Frenchman also racked up seven assists from an expected assists (xA) total of 4.7.
Neymar only started 15 matches last term, but still managed nine goals and five assists, and with those numbers backed up by Messi’s ever-remarkable stats, it is difficult to see PSG not engulfing all before them this season.
Is Messi still that good?
Barcelona, despite finishing third in La Liga in 2020/21, posted by far the highest expected goal difference (+40.0) in the league, while their attacking numbers were also far superior to either Madrid side (83.8 xGF).
Messi was, of course, a huge reason for those strong underlying numbers.
He was involved in 45% of Barcelona’s xG total, and while his expected assists were down last term, his expected goals total (25.7 xG) was actually the highest he has recorded since 2017/18.
As well as being an unfathomable goal scoring machine, Messi is also one of, if not the, best passer of a football on the planet.
With the likes of Neymar and Mbappe in the team, even if the Argentine does take up a deeper role for PSG, he will hardly be short of options to pass to.
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