What just a week ago looked like a defining battle in a three-horse title race is now a fight to stay in it.
Manchester City have opened up an eight-point gap at the top of the Premier League table, meaning whichever of Chelsea and Liverpool drop points on Sunday will most likely have to settle for a disappointing domestic campaign.
This could make for a better game, given that a draw is a bad result for both teams.
Their last meeting, a 1-1 draw in August, was a very good contest during a frantic opening 20 minutes but fizzled out after Reece James' red card on the stroke of half-time.
The sides were happier to settle back then, whereas this weekend Thomas Tuchel and Jurgen Klopp will need to open up in the final minutes.
Nevertheless the tactical pattern should be similar.
Chelsea to rely on counter attack
Chelsea are likely to sit deeper than usual in their 3-4-2-1 formation in the hope of absorbing pressure from the visitors before hitting on the break through their three-pronged attack, as they did in an aggressive opening in August.
Tuchel’s narrow system will leave space for the Liverpool full-backs to bomb forward, in turn creating space on the counter for Chelsea to burst into.
Having watched Tottenham get in behind Liverpool’s high line over and over again, mostly via long balls from Eric Dier, Chelsea should attempt something similar.
Their centre-backs are all adept at stepping out with the ball and finding Romelu Lukaku, Mason Mount, and Callum Hudson-Odoi breaking behind.
That's if we assume the ill-timed release of Lukaku's critical interview with Sky Italia doesn't result in a spell on Tuchel's naughty step.
However, by instructing his three forwards to stay close together – in order to counter with quick passes between them – Tuchel will leave a lot of space in front of his back five for Trent Alexander-Arnold and Konstantinos Tsimikas (in for the suspended Andrew Robertson).
If Alexander-Arnold is at the top of his game then he can be Liverpool’s playmaker in these areas, finding Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah inside the penalty area.
It is notable that Leicester’s diamond 4-4-2 in midweek left the flanks open and crammed bodies centrally, leaving Alexander-Arnold with space – but nobody free in the box to pass to.
This will give Tuchel confidence to do something similar, then release his quicker attackers into the space behind the Liverpool right-back.
Leicester 1-0 Liverpool
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 28, 2021
xG: 0.74-2.23
Who said life was ‘fair’? pic.twitter.com/UiqpVO8kss
Wing-back injuries could cost Chelsea
Considering the increasing defensive vulnerability of Klopp’s team, this does seem likely to be a fruitful option.
Virgil van Dijk is not at his best yet and Joel Matip did not always look comfortable against Leicester, which will give hope to Lukaku of using his pace and strength to burst beyond the visiting defenders – who have conceded seven goals in the last four games.
A lot of Chelsea’s counter-attacking potential rests on how Tuchel uses his wing-backs. Reece James and Ben Chilwell are both unavailable for this game, meaning Marcus Alonso on the left and Christian Pulisic on the right.
If the American can get forward quickly enough when breaks occur then he should win any battle with Tsimikas, yet the Liverpool left-back is clear favourite at the other end.
Their head-to-head is the most important of the game.
This will not simply be a game of possession versus counter, not at Stamford Bridge, although during more even periods of open play we are unlikely to see many goals.
Chelsea’s 3-4-2-1 looks increasingly static, as if over-coached by Tuchel to stand in regimented spaces that have become simple for the opposition to track.
Certainly Liverpool’s hard-working central midfield should be able to close off the half-spaces, as so many teams have done recently against Chelsea.
Thiago v Kante an intriguing battle
The battle between Thiago and N’Golo Kante will define the match during these even periods, when neither team will be pressing high and neither committing many bodies forward.
Kante’s energy weaving through the lines is crucial to opening things up, and of course his defensive cover is essential in preventing Liverpool’s front three being released into space; those sweeping diagonals from Alexander-Arnold will require Kante sprinting out to cover the gaps.
As for Thiago, his ability to control the rhythm of the match, slowing things down to keep Liverpool penned in the opposition half, is never more important than in games like this.
It will be a tense and claustrophobic affair in west London with very little space in midfield areas, and how the game’s two best midfielders – Thiago and Kante – dictate things will go a long way to deciding which side will keep a finger-nail grip on Man City.
Salah form the decisive factor?
Not Mo Salah's night tonight.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 28, 2021
But what a season so far.
🇪🇬👑 pic.twitter.com/5zCtGAZxxc
Ultimately, tiredness is a big factor in this game for both teams, suggesting that – just like in August – the match will be decided in the early stages, when the tempo is high and both have the energy required to break quickly into gaps when they see them.
Chelsea’s physical and mental fatigue recently, leading to just three wins from their last eight in the Premier League, gives Liverpool the slight edge in this regard despite their 1-0 defeat in midweek.
Simply having Salah on the pitch is enough reason to back the visitors.
