Can Aston Villa secure Champions League football?

The first 18 months under Unai Emery, from relegation candidates under Steven Gerrard to the prospect of Champions League football and the club’s first silverware since 1996, have been a ridiculous success.

It was perhaps inevitable that Villa would eventually regress a little, would drop slightly from the constant high since Emery’s arrival. Looking back, the peak is easy to see.

Premier League top 4 finish odds (via Sky Bet)

• Tottenham - 2/5
• Aston Villa - 15/8
• Manchester Utd - 66/1

Odds correct at 1420 (11/04/24)

Regression was always coming

In the space of four days at Villa Park they beat Manchester City and Arsenal, absolutely battering the former and stoically holding back the latter, briefly entering the title race in the process.

They were giddy, giddy days. A 2-1 victory over Brentford followed, meaning all they had to do was beat bottom club Sheffield United at Villa Park to all-but-guarantee top spot at Christmas.

At the time, nobody could have guessed a downturn was coming; that the high point had been and gone.

Nicolo Zaniolo’s injury-time equaliser avoided a humiliating defeat to the Blades, and then on Boxing Day Villa, 2-0 up at half-time, fell to a 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford. They looked tired, as if the injuries had suddenly caught up with them.

And, honestly, they’ve looked that way pretty much ever since.

Tiredness a problem for Villa

In the first 17 Premier League games of the season Villa won 38 points. Over the last 15, starting with the draw against Sheffield United, they have won just 22 points.

At a rate of 1.47 points per game, over the course of a 38-game season that would give 56 points, enough to finish 10th last year. Based on the current league table, had Villa hit 1.47 points over the 31 matches played so far they would be ninth, one point above Chelsea.

The news is still broadly very, very good.

Considering Villa’s gap to Manchester United in sixth and the likelihood the Premier League will be given a fifth Champions League spot, they probably only need another six points to complete a magnificent first full year under Emery, and that’s without considering they are favourites to lift the Europa Conference League.

But their form is still a cause for concern, because it appears as though opponents have started to work out how to counteract Emery’s tactics. Again splitting the season into two parts - the first 17 and most recent 15 - Villa’s average possession share has gone up from 52.8% to 57.2%.

Teams respect Villa more now, and have adapted accordingly, sitting deeper and playing with caution.

Emery needs to adapt

That means Emery can no longer deploy his reactive tactics in the same way, nor can he bait the press so easily; until December, Villa could play transitional football as the underdogs, while also encouraging opponents to press them in order to change tempo and spin behind.

It is the foundation of Emery’s tactics, and so, as cautious opponents increasingly use a low block, Villa’s primary means of attack is neutralised.

This psychological shift in the balance of power, from reactive to proactive, also explains why Aston Villa have developed a habit of conceding in quick bursts.

On three separate occasions in 2024, Villa have conceded two or more goals in a five-minute window, and a further three times they have conceded two or more goals in a ten-minute window.

Sudden collapses – or, put another way, sudden opportunistic charges from the lower-status team – are a symptom of the new order to which Villa must adjust, as Ollie Watkins acknowledged after the 3-3 draw with Brentford last weekend.

“I'm not belittling my team," he added. "I'm part of it. I feel we need to somehow figure out when we're 2-0 up how to just shut up shop.”

Vulnerability from crosses a concern

He’s right. More specifically, they need to work out how to shut down the wings: the classic counter-attacking space that opponents – now used to Villa controlling the middle – are increasingly seeking out.

Each of Brentford’s three goals came from crosses by Sergio Reguilon, which follows a new pattern: eight of the 12 goals Villa have conceded in the last six Premier League games have come from crosses or cut backs after the full-back was beaten.

Villa have won just one of those six matches, which amounts to their worst sequence so far under Emery.

His task between now and the end of the campaign is to instill in Villa that “big team mentality”, shutting down space on the wings, shutting down contests, and learning to play as the favourites.

If that sounds like a big ask, then consider the other, far simpler explanation for Villa’s declining form. Injuries have decimated the team, most notably in central defence and in central midfield.

Injuries proving costly

During the first phase of Villa’s worsening form, when they won one in seven between late December and early February, Emery was forced to play his fourth- and fifth-choice centre-backs – Diego Carlos and Clement Lenglet – on five occasions.

Just as important, since early February, Boubacar Kamara has been out with an ACL injury, meaning Villa have been playing without their metronome at the base of midfield (and will continue to do so until at least October).

What’s more Pau Torres, whose progressive distribution makes him the most important part of Emery’s tactics, has only recently come back.

No wonder Villa’s high line looks more dangerous. No wonder they’re struggling to hold onto leads.

Without Kamara and Torres together the entire concept of the press-baiting football falls apart. Kamara was missing in four of the last five Premier League matches that Villa lost. Torres wasn’t playing in five of Villa’s eight defeats this season. This, you could argue, is a bigger obstacle than a tactical plan sussed out.

Certainly, Villa supporters will more readily cite injuries as the reason for their declining form than tactical problems that need solving. And why wouldn’t they? They have had no reason to doubt Emery’s genius; no reason to doubt the 2023/24 campaign will have a perfect ending.

But no matter how long the injury list and the mitigating factors, a mentality issue remains. If Villa become a Champions League club next year, they will need to start playing like one.

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