Jake Pearson previews Manchester United's trip to Turf Moor to take on rock-bottom Burnley, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 40 booking points at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Saturday’s 0-0 draw at home to fellow relegation rivals Watford was Burnley’s ninth successive Premier League match without victory, and though the Clarets do have games in hand on most of their rivals, one league victory all season doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that they are going to make the most of their rescheduled fixtures.
Against the Hornets Burnley were again blunt going forward, creating less than 1.0 xGF (expected goals for) for the fourth time in their last seven matches.
Sean Dyche’s men may have recently acquired the services of Wout Weghorst up front, to compliment the clearly talented Maxwel Cornet, but the lack of supply is a big issue, and something that needs to be addressed else face dropping down into the second tier of English football.
Manchester United arrive in Burnely on the back of an FA Cup penalty shoot-out defeat to Middlesbrough, and it was, once again, a game that highlighted the lack of cohesion at the Old Trafford club.
Stuttering through matches, hoping an individual will inspire victory out of nowhere, while the rest of the team amble around replicating a Sunday league team attempting to gegenpress, is beginning to look like an unsustainable way forward for the Red Devils.
Against Burnley, however, they should be able to muster up enough opportunities to come away with a victory.
Backing the away side at a price of 8/15 is hardly appealing though, so looking elsewhere for a bet is the advice.
Despite Ralf Rangnick attempting to implement his high-intensity, defend-from-the-front approach, Manchester United’s card count has actually decreased since the German’s appointment, going from an average of 2.29 cautions per match down to 1.5.
Only five teams have completed fewer tackles on average than United this term, and one of those is Burnley.
Backing UNDER 40 BOOKING POINTS therefore makes appeal in this fixture at a price of 11/10.
This selection would have landed in 12 of Burnley’s 19 matches, as well as in 13 of Man United’s 22 – including five of Rangnick’s eight in charge – not to mention in each of the last four meetings between these two.
United matches under the former RB Leipzig coach have averaged 2.63 yellow cards per game – 3.23 for the season as a whole – while Burnley matches this term have averaged 3.43 cautions per match – just the 12th most in the division.
Expect another run-of-the-mill performance from Manchester United, and with Burnley themselves seemingly incapable of conjuring the necessary intensity required to make such games difficult for their opponents, don’t count on too many cards being shown by Mike Dean, who has averaged 3.33 cautions in the Premier League this season, just the 14th most.
Burnley v Man United best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 40 booking points at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Burnley 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1540 GMT (07/02/22)
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