Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for Matchday 23 of the Bundesliga season, including a 25/1 shot on Saturday.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Over 11.5 corners in Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt at 21/10 (BetVictor)
0.75pt Dominik Kohr to score first in Mainz v Hoffenheim at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
0.75pt Dominik Kohr to score anytime in Mainz v Hoffenheim at 10/1 (William Hill)
1pt Christopher Nkunku to score anytime in Dortmund v Leipzig at 5/2 (Unibet, Bet UK)
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Wolfsburg 7/5 | Draw 12/5 | Eintracht Frankfurt 17/10
There is a pretty big game in the Premier League at the same time on Sunday, but Wolfsburg's home clash with Eintracht Frankfurt does have the potential to be highly competitive.
Both sides are in the mix for the European qualification places, with the visitors currently holding a five-point advantage over Sunday's opposition in sixth.
Make no mistake about it, Wolfsburg will know the importance of victory here if they are to play in one of the top club competitions next season. Defeat could well end those hopes despite the fact there will be 11 games left afterwards.
Given the fact that this game could end up being pretty end-to-end, with goals also fancied, the 21/10 best price on OVER 11.5 CORNERS provides appeal.
Wolfsburg's propensity to be on the front foot is outlined by the fact they've averaged 5.60 corners taken across their 10 home games so far. Eintracht Frankfurt have seen 5.00 across their 11 on the road, but we're focusing more on game state here.
Niko Kovac's side took seven corners in a recent defeat to Bayern, with six taken against Dortmund (alongside nine conceded) and a match total of 13 in their trip to Mainz.
Sunday's visitors have also played their part in competitive games against those in the top seven. They took six corners in the loss at Leipzig, with the same number against Bayern.
The Matchday 6 meeting between these two teams returned a total of 15 corners taken, and we're fancying the count to go nicely into double figures again this time around.
Mainz v Hoffenheim
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Mainz 17/20 | Draw 13/5 | Hoffenheim 14/5
Mainz are currently enjoying a great run of form. They've won their last three games with at least three goals scored in each.
It's a contrast to the showings of Hoffenheim, with the relegation-threatened side losing their last six in all competitions. Such are their poor returns, the last couple of games finishing only 1-0 to the opposition can be viewed as some form of small positive.
The hosts should punish them here. Not just because of their own recent scoring exploits but because of the decent volume of shots that they take.
Die Nullfünfer are averaging 13.0 shots per game - the sixth-highest in the Bundesliga - with Hoffenheim's 13.8 against figure putting them seventh worst in that metric.
One of those who can take shots in bunches is DOMINIK KOHR, and there is interest in taking the 25/1 price available on the midfielder to SCORE FIRST in this one.
He has two on his tally this season, with one of those coming in the reverse fixture between these sides - that ended in a 4-1 victory for Hoffenheim.
Even in defeat, he posted three shots that day, and he's returned at least two shots in four of his last five league starts for the club. That's given the midfielder an xG figure of 0.40 across this period.
They are 'low probability' shots but a high volume is the encouraging sign. He should find himself in those positions on the right side of the edge of the area to get efforts away on goal.
Splitting our stakes in case he doesn't score first, we're also taking the 10/1 best price on KOHR TO SCORE ANYTIME.
His low driven shot from the just inside the box found the net in the last meeting between the two sides, and we can hold confidence that he will have chances again here.
Dortmund v RB Leipzig
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV channel: Sky Sports App
- Borussia Dortmund 6/5 | Draw 13/5 | RB Leipzig 19/10
A brilliant fixture to kick off the Bundesliga weekend as Dortmund host Leipzig in a game that has all the potential to be high-scoring and highly entertaining.
Both sides have demonstrated their ability in attack throughout the campaign, and there is little reason to believe either will approach this contest with a more reserved attitude.
A boost for the visitors is that CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU should be ready for a start now, making his 5/2 price on a GOAL ANYTIME appear generous.
The forward was enjoying a terrific season before injury derailed his World Cup plans, alongside his involvement in the weeks following the Bundesliga returning.
He's now made three consecutive substitute appearances and, with a full week in training behind him, there is every chance he returns to the starting XI for what is a crucial game.
Prior to injury, Nkunku had scored 12 goals in 16 league games. Add in all competitions and it's 17 in 24 appearances. The Bundesliga top scorer accolade is still well up for grabs despite his recent absence.
He's clearly Leipzig's biggest threat in what is a strong attacking unit.
They've averaged 2.01 xG per game since Marco Rose's arrival, with his first game being the 3-0 victory over Dortmund earlier in the season.
NKUNKU will get chances throughout the time he's on the pitch, and he's demonstrated on multiple occasions this season that he can take them.
Odds correct at 1225 GMT (02/03/23)
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