Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for Matchday 22 of the Bundesliga season, with a goalscorer at 70/1 the highlight.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Borussia Mönchengladbach to score 2+ goals v Mainz at 13/8 (bet365, Paddy Power)
1pt Julian Chabot to score anytime in Köln v Wolfsburg at 22/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Jeffrey Gouweleeuw to score first in Hertha Berlin v Augsburg at 70/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Jeffrey Gouweleeuw to score anytime in Hertha Berlin v Augsburg at 25/1 (Unibet)
Köln v Wolfsburg
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Köln 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Wolfsburg 15/8
An interesting clash between two sides sat at opposite ends of the mid-table region, Köln welcome Wolfsburg with the visitors set to be without some key figures.
Sebastiaan Bornauw is out through suspension, with another centre-back in Maxence Lacroix also suffering with illness this week. Jakub Kaminski and Kevin Paredes were two who missed the defeat in Leipzig for the same reasons.
We definitely know that one starting centre-back is out, but the potential for others to be missing only adds to Köln's chances of winning the match.
A set-piece mismatch is already there when we consider the underlying metrics, but it should be further evident given the personnel missing, making JULIAN CHABOT TO SCORE ANYTIME a fun bet at 22/1.
He's had absence issues of his own this season with an ankle injury forcing him to miss large parts of the campaign prior to the World Cup break, but he has played the full 90 minutes in all of Köln's league games since the restart.
Chabot is a presence in defence, and it's unsurprising to see the towering centre-back averaging the highest amount of successful aerial duels in this Köln squad (3.9).
That figure puts him in the top-ten for the metric in the entire Bundesliga, and he should have the better of the Wolfsburg defence in set-piece situations - particularly given the absence of Bornauw.
No side can boast a higher set-piece xGF tally in Germany's top-flight this season than Köln (9.18 per Opta Analyst), while Wolfsburg have the highest xGA from free-kicks and corners (9.31).
Wolfsburg have also conceded the highest amount of dead ball passes leading to a shot attempt in the league (62 per FBRef), and Köln's more adventurous nature in home contests should lead to corners.
It's a bet we'd be interested in even without Wolfsburg's current availability issues, but those absences only boost CHABOT's chances of grabbing his first goal of the season.
Hertha Berlin v Augsburg
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Hertha Berlin 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Augsburg 15/8
Hertha Berlin's form since the restart has been, erm, worrying.
Although, it was hardly better prior to the World Cup. They've seen five losses in their last six - and the 4-1 win over Mönchengladbach was somewhat exaggerated given that two of those goals came in the final few minutes.
While struggling to put together back-to-back results, Augsburg deserve credit for winning three of their six. That's pushed them further away from relegation, and they will be confident of success here on Saturday.
Set-pieces should be a route to success for the visitors, and we're gambling on the 70/1 best price for JEFFREY GOUWELEEUW TO SCORE FIRST.
The club from the capital have had issues defending set-piece situations all season, but it has seemingly worsened since the restart.
Hertha have conceded a goal to an opposition centre-back in half of their league games following the World Cup break - taking their total to 14 against from free-kicks and corners.
Nico Elvedi (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Danilho Doekhi (Union Berlin) and Keven Schlotterbeck (Bochum) have all found the net against this struggling side across the last six matchdays.
Gouweleeuw's 2.3 aerial duels won per game alongside his average of 0.6 shots per game highlight how he will be a player they target when the opportunity presents itself - Hertha concede plenty of corners at home.
It could well be a low scoring game, but just in case, we'll also take the 25s available on GOUWELEEUW TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Augsburg boast the third-highest set-piece xGF - per Opta Analyst - with their 8.17 figure highlighting that they should have had more than the seven on their tally.
Gouweleeuw also took, and scored, a penalty last season. Others have had the responsibility during the current campaign but, well, you never know.
Mainz v Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
- Mainz Evens | Draw 13/5 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 23/10
I'm quite excited by the potential chaos that this match could bring.
Mönchengladbach have seen over 4.5 goals in three of their last four games, with at least three goals in their favour in two of those.
For Mainz, 4+ goals have been scored in four of their last five. Both teams have the ability to create in attack but find that coupled with an inability to keep chances out at the other end.
With a best price of 13/8 available with a couple of bookmakers, it's worth a gamble on MÖNCHENGLADBACH TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
Even with victories over Augsburg and Bochum in recent weeks, Mainz aren't the home force they were last season. Only Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig boasted a better home record in 21/22 - they sit 14th in this table during the current campaign.
Mönchengladbach do have issues on the road but possess the firepower to exploit this Mainz defence. After all, they have found the net in eight of their ten away league contests.
So while they have only won one away, they've still been scoring. Mainz have also conceded two or more in three of their last four home games in all competitions.
I'm not confident enough in this Mönchengladbach side currently to back them to win, but the 13/8 on the visitors contributing a couple in what could be a high-scoring contest provides appeal.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 2pts Borussia Mönchengladbach to score 2+ goals v Mainz at 13/8 (bet365, Paddy Power)
- 1pt Julian Chabot to score anytime in Köln v Wolfsburg at 22/1 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Jeffrey Gouweleeuw to score first in Hertha Berlin v Augsburg at 70/1 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Jeffrey Gouweleeuw to score anytime in Hertha Berlin v Augsburg at 25/1 (Unibet)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (23/02/23)
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