Following a clean sweep on Matchday 17 - with winners at 13/10, 13/8 and 2/1 returning +5.58pts profit - Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for the latest action.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Borussia Dortmund most corners v Bayer Leverkusen at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Konrad Laimer to score anytime in RB Leipzig v Stuttgart at 15/2 (William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Benno Schmitz to score first in Schalke v Köln at 50/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1-99 1/3)
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- 16:30 GMT, Sunday
It's Wrexham v Sheffield United in the FA Cup at the same time, so you may as well treat yourself to this potentially high-scoring contest instead.
Leverkusen are really starting to build under Xabi Alonso's guidance. The 2-0 win over Bochum in midweek made it five consecutive league wins, a result that moved them up to 8th in the Bundesliga table.
Dortmund's 93rd minute winner away at Mainz delivered a 13/10 winner and the clean sweep for this column, but they will find it tricky to keep up their own maximum returns following the World Cup/winter break.
Instead, taking the 11/8 best price on DORTMUND MOST CORNERS provides appeal.
While an unsuccessful selection when opposing Leverkusen in this statistic last Sunday, the fact that a small total of three won it for them again highlights that they aren't taking a huge amount following Alonso's appointment.
In fact, even against Bochum, 11/2 outsiders in their midweek meeting, their opponents won the corner count by a scoreline of 4-3. It continues the downwards trend in this area after the change in the dugout.
In Leverkusen's nine league games under Alonso's guidance, they've won the corner count twice. Prior to that, they were averaging 5.13 corners taken.
The average across Alonso's Bundesliga spell so far is 2.44. That's a huge step down from Dortmund's figure of 6.47, with it jumping up to 7.00 across their nine games on the road.
RB Leipzig v Stuttgart
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- 19:30 GMT, Friday
RB Leipzig bounced back from a fairly uninspiring performance against Bayern by putting six past Schalke in midweek.
Yes, that was the team at the bottom compared with the one at the top but it was a much-needed attacking performance to build up the confidence again as they embark on a tricky run of fixtures.
Given they face Köln (A), Union Berlin (H) and Wolfsburg (A) next, victory here is important to keep them in the title race at this stage. They can't expect nine points from nine from the three after Friday.
Unsurprisingly, Leipzig are 4/9 to win here but I'm intrigued by the 15/2 best price available on KONRAD LAIMER TO SCORE ANYTIME based on recent performances.
Injury has disrupted his season so far but he returned to the starting XI following the break. In those two games, he saw a total of four shots.
Against Schalke in midweek, his two efforts equated to 0.69 xG with both coming from good positions inside the box. Given how advanced he can get, we can expect to see a chance or two on Friday night.
While he hasn't scored this season - although injury played a part in that - we have to remember that this is a player with 11 goal involvements in 21/22 with five of those being goals.
Only Bayern boast a better xG process in home games than Leipzig this season. They're averaging 2.08 xG per game under Marco Rose, with that number moving up to 2.35 xG in home contests.
Schalke v Köln
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- 14:30 GMT, Sunday
Schalke were hammered by RB Leipzig last time out. A 6-1 thrashing in front of their own supporters continued a miserable campaign for Die Königsblauen.
They sit bottom of the table, already seven points adrift of safety. The -27 goal difference further highlights how one sided their games have been and it should carry on against a brave Köln side who will view this as an opportunity.
The fact that Schalke kept pushing in a game where the result was sorted by half-time seemed to gather forms of praise for trying to play their own way.
It's akin to a boxer who has lost the majority of rounds and is clearly on the way down in the latter stages of the bout. You're not turning it around by that point, just accept your fate.
Ah man, leave poor Erwin out of this. pic.twitter.com/fdUzaNT1fI
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) January 24, 2023
One of the many points of concern for this Schalke side is how exposed they become down their left side. Benjamin Henrichs found the net in that midweek win for Leipzig and he's not the first player out on that right to experience joy.
While not prolific by any means, although he has scored this season, I'm going for an each-way play on BENNO SCHMITZ TO SCORE FIRST at a huge 50/1.
Köln's right-back has posted four shots across the course of the season but you imagine part of the pre-match preparation will be focused on attacking down their right.
Schmitz and Linton Maina could become key figures going forward for the visitors and both should see chances to find goal.
Width is key in attack for Köln. Only two sides have seen a higher percentage of attacks go down their right this season, while it's just one down the left. Yet through the middle, they rank dead last.
Schmitz's advanced position when hitting a wonderful goal against Leverkusen highlights that he does have the licence to drive forward when the opportunity presents itself - this should be the case against the league's bottom club.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 2pts Borussia Dortmund most corners v Bayer Leverkusen at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Konrad Laimer to score anytime in RB Leipzig v Stuttgart at 15/2 (William Hill)
- 0.5pt e.w. Benno Schmitz to score first in Schalke v Köln at 50/1 (bet365 1-99 1/3)
Odds correct at 0950 GMT (26/01/23)
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